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SECTION 2: INTRODUCTION

Background

2.1 Over the past two decades, an increasing proportion of young people have been staying-on in education after the age of 16. This trend is linked to dramatic changes in the youth labour market and the disappearance of many of the jobs traditionally available to early entrants to the labour market.

2.2 There are still, however, a substantial number of young people who leave school at the earliest opportunity, and they tend to come from less-advantaged family backgrounds and have lower attainment at Standard Grade (Howieson 2003).

2.3 Some young people, especially the better qualified, are able to enter Skillseekers, Modern Apprenticeships or employment with training, and for these the decision to leave education at 16 may be appropriate. However, early leavers with low Standard Grade attainment have relatively poor employment prospects, suffer periods of unemployment and have unstable post-school careers. They have very poor chances of increasing their qualifications or of receiving training, and are most at risk of being "not in education, employment or training" ( NEET) (Howieson 2003, Raffe 2003).

2.4 Although young women are less likely to be early leavers, those who do leave school at the earliest opportunity have poorer outcomes than their male counterparts, and are most likely to be NEET.

2.5 In view of the well-established correlation between socio-economic disadvantage and early leaving, it is likely that reduction of financial barriers to educational participation through the Education Maintenance Allowance ( EMA) will enable young people from low-income households to continue their education and gain further qualifications.

The Educational Maintenance Allowance Pilots

2.6 The EMA provides financial support for 16 to 19 year olds from low-income households undertaking appropriate full-time courses at school or college. EMAs were introduced in Great Britain in September 1999 as a pilot scheme in 25 local education authorities, including one Scottish pilot in East Ayrshire. The East Ayrshire pilot scheme is ongoing, and there are now three further Scottish pilot schemes in Glasgow, Dundee and West Dunbartonshire. The EMA will be rolled out nationally from summer 2004.

EMA Pilots in England

2.7 In England, the EMA was piloted in 25 local education authorities. The evaluation included a longitudinal cohort study involving large surveys of random samples of young people in 10 EMA pilot areas and 11 control areas. The study included four survey sweeps, the first conducted by face-to-face interviews, and subsequent sweeps by telephone interview (Middleton et al 2003).

2.8 It estimated that the overall impact of EMA has been to increase participation in education in Year 12 (ie the 1st post-compulsory year) by 4.3 percentage points, and Year 13 (ie the 2nd post-compulsory year) by 6.2 percentage points. The increase was greater for young men than young women. The effect of EMA on participation and retention varied by socio-economic group ( SEG), with greater effect on young people from SEGs other than professional/managerial groups. The EMA effect varied also by prior attainment, with the largest impact on low and middle achievers; the EMA led to an increase in participation by the lowest attaining group by 8.8 percentage points, and increased retention between years 12 and 13 by 7.7 percentage points for this group.

2.9 There was no evidence that EMA had an impact, either positive or negative, on post-16 attainment. Young people in the pilot areas were more likely to take vocational courses than their counterparts in the control areas, and this added to the difficulty of finding evidence of increased attainment because there is not a unified system of academic and vocational courses in England as there is in Scotland.

EMA pilots in Scotland

2.10 The Phase 1 EMA pilot in East Ayrshire started in session 1999-2000. In Phase 2, EMA is being piloted in Glasgow, Dundee and West Dunbartonshire, commencing in session 2001-2002.

2.11 During the period 1999-2000, in the Phase 1 Scottish pilot, the EMA consisted of two elements paid directly to the young person: a weekly (term-time) cash allowance (maximum £40) if attendance was 100% in that week, and additional payments for retention (£75) and achievement (£50) bonuses if attendance was 90% or above throughout the academic year and qualifications aimed at in the Learning Agreement were achieved ¹. The Learning Agreement represents a contract between the young person and the school/college through which the young person is encouraged to make the effort to attend and to work harder.

2.12 An evaluation of the EMA pilot in East Ayrshire was commissioned by the Scottish Executive from the Centre for Educational Sociology ( CES) at Edinburgh University (Croxford et al. 2002). The design included a postal survey of young people in East Ayrshire and a non- EMA control area, conducted between winter 2001 and spring 2002. The main aim of the evaluation was to assess the extent to which the EMA payments improve post-16 participation, retention and attainment rates, especially among young people from low-income families, who are less likely to stay in education beyond compulsory schooling, or to progress to further or higher education.

2.13 The main findings of that evaluation were that:

• EMA had a positive effect on participation in post-compulsory education, especially among young people from low-income families.
• EMA had a positive effect on educational retention, especially among young people from low-income families. The number of winter leavers was reduced, and S5 completions increased. Improved retention was most evident among young people from low-income families.

2.14 However it was not possible to demonstrate an impact on attainment, in large part because the data were incomplete and the evaluation was dependent on young people's self-reporting of qualifications achieved. This second stage of the research aimed to address this issue, and used SQA data on national qualifications in post-compulsory education, to analyse the continuing impact of the phase 1 pilot and the initial impact of the phase 2 pilots on young people's attainment.

National Qualifications - the National Trends

2.15 The start of the first EMA pilot, in session 1999-2000, coincided with the introduction of a new system of national qualifications as a result of the Higher Still reforms. The objective of the Higher Still reform, to create "Opportunity for All" (Scottish Office 1994), complements the objectives of the EMA: Higher Still through a flexible system of units and courses appropriate to all levels of ability, and EMA through reduction of financial barriers. However, the coincidence of the two policy innovations presents some complications for the evaluation of the EMA pilots.

2.16 National qualifications cover virtually all vocational and academic subjects and are offered by schools and colleges. National qualifications span a range of levels from Advanced Higher (level 7 of the Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework ( SCQF)) to Access 1 ( SCQF level 1). The building blocks of the new system are 40-hour National Units which may be taken as separate units or combined into 160-hour National Courses (Raffe et al 2004).

2.17 Nationally, levels of participation in national qualifications have risen substantially since 2000, and the steepest increase has been among young people with low Standard Grade attainment, for whom previously there had been few appropriate courses. Levels of attainment have also risen since 2000, partly as a result of increased participation. There has been a significant rise in average attainment among young people with low Standard Grade attainment, although the increase has not been as great as that for young people with higher Standard Grade attainment. These trends are described in more detail in Appendix 1.

Aims / Objectives of the research

2.18 The key aim of this second stage of the research is to analyse the impact of EMA pilots on young people's participation and attainment in national qualifications. It considers the following questions:

• What are the trends in participation and attainment in national qualifications in Scotland as a whole?
• To what extent has overall post-compulsory attainment in national qualifications improved in the East Ayrshire pilot area since the introduction of EMA in autumn 1999?
• Have there been different patterns of attainment in the East Ayrshire pilot area in comparison to the control area?
• What levels of improvement in attainment can be identified in the East Ayrshire pilot area among young people with low standard grade attainment?
• To what extent has overall post-compulsory attainment in national qualifications changed in the Glasgow, Dundee and West Dunbartonshire pilot areas since the introduction of EMA in autumn 2001?
• Has the level of attainment in the Glasgow, Dundee and West Dunbartonshire pilot areas been different to comparable areas with no EMA?
• Is there evidence of above-average improvement in attainment in the Glasgow, Dundee and West Dunbartonshire pilot areas among young people with low standard grade attainment?

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