Competitive Scottish Cities? Placing Scotland’s cities in the UK and European context

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Competitive Scottish Cities?
Placing Scotland's cities in the UK and European context

Chapter 2. Scottish and English Core Cities Current Position

Size and scale

2.1 Of the six Scottish cities included in this study only Glasgow and Edinburgh are similar in size to the English Core Cities. Aberdeen, Dundee, Inverness and Stirling are all significantly smaller in terms of residential population.

Figure 2.1: Total population 2003

Figure 2.1: Total population 2003

Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates 2003

2.2 In this study we have used existing Local Authorities as the boundaries of cities. This approach allows us to use a wide range of readily available data sources. But it also has drawbacks - many UK cities are 'under-bounded'. Others are over- bounded and incorporate large areas of rural or semi-rural land along with the urban area. The cut off point for city boundaries can have a significant impact on socio-economic indicators. This is a particular problem in larger metropolitan areas where the built-up urban area is divided into a number of different Local Authorities.

Increasingly attractive places to be?

2.3 Cities across the UK have experienced significant falls in population over the last 30 years. Recently this trend has slowed and in some of the English Core Cities there has been modest population growth since 2001. However, between 1996 and 2003 the only cities to experience an increase in their residential population were Manchester, Bristol, Leeds and Edinburgh. By 2002/2003 there was a small increase in the population estimates for Nottingham, Manchester, Bristol, Birmingham and Newcastle. However Scottish cities, with the exception of Edinburgh, are continuing to experience low-level population decline, with Aberdeen and Dundee experiencing the largest population decreases.

Figure 2.2: Population change 1996-2003 and 2002-2003

Figure 2.2: Population change 1996-2003 and 2002-2003

Source: ONS/NOMIS Mid-Year Population Estimates 1996, 2003

Estimated population for Inverness (2001) 66,600, for Stirling (2001) 41,000

Note: Population Estimates for Manchester have been revised upwards for 2001 by 26,200 following the Local Authority Population Studies conducted by the ONS see http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/census0704.pdf

Increasingly important centres of employment

2.4 Some 43% of all employees in Scotland are working in the six Scottish cities. These employment centres dominate the Scottish economy. Employment increased in all the English Core and Scottish cities between 1998 and 2002, with the exception of Nottingham.

Figure 2.3: Total employment

Figure 2.3: Total employment

Source: ONS/NOMIS Annual Business Inquiry 1998, 2002

Note: Data for Stirling based on 1991 Frozen wards of Argyll, Cornton, Gowanhill, Ballengeich, King's Park, Torbrex, Borestone, Whins, Ladywell, Logie

2.5 The English Core Cities and Scottish cities remain dominant regional employment markets, accounting for a higher share of regional employment than regional population.

Figure 2.4: Percentage share of regional/ Scottish employment and population 2002

Figure 2.4: Percentage share of regional/ Scottish employment and population 2002

Source: ONS/NOMIS Annual Business Inquiry 2002

2.6 When taken as a whole, employment in the Scottish cities is growing at a faster rate than across Scotland. It was up 8.4% between 1998 and 2002, compared with a 5.4% increase for Scotland. However, the growth in employment in Scotland has been dominated by Edinburgh (11.1%) and Glasgow (10.8%). Aberdeen, Dundee and Stirling all have employment growth rates below the Scottish average. The English Core Cities have experienced a similar increase in the total number of employees: up 7.9% overall in the same time period. Again, employment growth is not evenly spread. The greatest increases have been in Manchester (17.1%) and Newcastle (15.2%) whilst employment in Nottingham fell by 3.6%.

Figure 2.5: Percentage change in total employment 1998-2002

Figure 2.5: Percentage change in total employment 1998-2002

Source: ONS/NOMIS Annual Business Inquiry 1998, 2002

2.7 Regional employment change varies across the UK. Between 1998 and 2002 there was growth of 8.1% in the South West and a fall of 0.1% in the East Midlands. The only English Core Cities to experience employment growth below their regional average are Sheffield and Nottingham.

Table 2.1: Percentage change in total employment 1998-2002

South East

7.3

West Midlands

1.3

London

4.2

East Midlands

-0.1

South West

8.1

Yorkshire and Humber

4.8

Eastern

4.1

Wales

5.5

North West

6.7

Scotland

5.4

North East

5.7

Great Britain

4.9

Source: ONS/NOMIS Annual Business Inquiry 1998 2002

2.8 The total employment data includes both full and part-time jobs. Across the UK employment growth has been significantly higher in part-time than full-time employment. In Nottingham, Aberdeen, Birmingham and Dundee the total number of full-time employees fell between 1998 and 2002. At the same time part-time employment has increased in all cities. When the growth of Full Time Equivalents (FTE) are analysed (where 2 part-time jobs are considered to be equivalent to one full time post) there is a similar pattern to that for total employment growth. Edinburgh and Glasgow perform most strongly in Scotland and Manchester and Newcastle show the greatest employment growth amongst the English Core Cities.

Table 2.2: Percentage change in total, FTE, full and part-time employment 1998-2002

Change total

Change FTE

Change FT

Change PT

Edinburgh

11.1%

9.3%

6.7%

22.5%

Glasgow

10.8%

8.8%

6.0%

23.7%

Highland

5.7%

8.7%

13.8%

-6.5%

Stirling

2.8%

1.6%

-0.1%

5.0%

Aberdeen

2.2%

0.8%

-1.0%

12.0%

Dundee

1.3%

-0.5%

-3.1%

10.6%

Scotland

5.4%

3.8%

1.6%

14.5%

Manchester

17.1%

15.1%

12.4%

29.7%

Newcastle-upon-Tyne

15.2%

16.2%

17.6%

10.4%

Bristol

10.6%

8.4%

5.1%

23.6%

Leeds

9.7%

10.2%

11.0%

6.3%

Liverpool

8.6%

8.7%

8.7%

8.4%

Sheffield

4.5%

3.7%

2.5%

8.7%

Birmingham

3.4%

1.8%

-0.4%

13.5%

Nottingham

-3.6%

-5.6%

-8.5%

7.6%

Great Britain

4.9%

3.9%

2.5%

10.5%

Source: ONS/NOMIS Annual Business Inquiry 1998, 2002

2.9 The employment data above relates to the number of people who are employed in each city. Commuters take many of these jobs, and total employment data does not tell us about the employment patterns of those living in each city. Instead, the employment rate can be used to get a feel for the employment patterns of local residents.

2.10 The employment rate is the proportion of working-age residents who are in work. A less encouraging picture emerges when this is analysed. Bristol, Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Stirling LA and Leeds have an employment rate higher than the GB average. Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Stirling LA are also the only Scottish cities with an employment rate higher than the Scottish average. The only English Core City to have employment rates above its regional average is Leeds. In Manchester only 59.9% of the working age population are in employment while in Glasgow the figure is 64.3%.

Figure 2.6: Employment rate 2003

Figure 2.6: Employment rate 2003

Source: ONS/NOMIS Labour Force Survey Annual 2003

2.11 Across Scotland, the total employment rate increased by 3.2 percentage points between 1996 and 2003. The employment rate increased most in Glasgow - up 9.2 percentage points, however this is from a low base and the overall employment rate remains low in the city. Slowest growth in the employment rate was in Aberdeen and Stirling (LA).

Table 2.3: Employment rate 1996 and 2003

1996

2003

Change in percentage points

Aberdeen

78.1%

79.5%

1.4

Edinburgh

71.9%

74.8%

2.9

Stirling (LA)

73.1%

74.5%

1.4

Dundee

64.0%

69.4%

5.4

Glasgow

55.1%

64.3%

9.2

Scotland

70.2%

73.4%

3.2

Bristol

72.2%

77.7%

5.5

Leeds

74.0%

74.0%

0.0

Sheffield

65.5%

72.7%

7.2

Newcastle-upon-Tyne

61.6%

65.6%

4.0

Birmingham

63.4%

64.8%

1.4

Liverpool

55.4%

60.6%

5.2

Nottingham

60.2%

60.5%

0.3

Manchester

55.8%

59.9%

4.1

Great Britain

72.1%

74.3%

2.2

Source: ONS/NOMIS Labour Force Survey Annual Database 1996, 2003
Note: Labour Force Survey Data, like all sample survey data is subject to Confidence Intervals. In 2003 the CI for the GB figure was 0.2 percentage points and 2.9 percentage points for Stirling.

Economic Performance

2.12 Gross Value Added 2 data published by the Office for National Statistics shows Scotland's leading cities performing well both in terms of total GVA and GVA per capita. Between 1995 and 2001 the estimated total GVA for Edinburgh and Glasgow increased by 36.2% and 38.3% respectively, well ahead of Scottish trends (24.8%). However, Scotland as a whole does not perform well in comparison with England where total GVA increased by 37.5% between 1995 and 2001.

2.13 Glasgow and Edinburgh now account for 30.4% of Scotland's total GVA. The NUTS 3 area covering Aberdeen produces a further 14% of Scottish GVA. Scotland accounts for 7.9% of the UK's GVA.

2.14 In terms of GVA per capita the Scottish cities perform well: Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Glasgow have GVA per capita rates well above the UK average.

Table 2.4: Total headline GVA £Million

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

% Change 1995-2001

Aberdeen*

7683

8080

8474

8838

9056

9489

9711

26.4

Angus and Dundee

2758

2856

2933

2999

3019

3061

3119

13.1

Edinburgh

7308

7708

9183

8699

9066

9510

9954

36.2

Glasgow

7994

8460

9081

9681

10135

10595

11059

38.3

Inverness**

948

982

1013

1046

1081

1130

1170

23.4

Perth, Kinross and Stirling

2225

2339

2444

2530

2568

2609

2673

20.1

Scotland

55431

58079

60828

63285

64932

67150

69179

24.8

England

530971

562669

600474

639772

668598

698684

730036

37.5

NUTS3 areas *Aberdeenshire and NE Moray, **Nairn & Moray, Badenoch & Strathspey
Source: ONS

Figure 2.7: GVA per capita 2001

Figure 2.7: GVA per capita 2001

Source: ONS NUTS 3 areas *Inverness & Nairn and Moray, Badenoch & Strathspey, **Aberdeenshire and NE Moray.