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ROADS (SCOTLAND) ACT 1984; ACQUISITION
OF LAND (AUTHORISATION PROCEDURE)(SCOTLAND) ACT 1947
M74 SPECIAL ROAD (FULLARTON ROAD TO WEST OF KINGSTON
BRIDGE) ORDERS
REPORT OF PUBLIC LOCAL INQUIRY INTO OBJECTIONS
VOLUME 1 : MAIN REPORT
CHAPTER 8 : ECONOMIC IMPACT AND
REGENERATION
Summary of case for the Trunk Roads Authority
and supporters
8.1 The case for the TRA in terms of economic impact and
regeneration is based on: -
- the Simmonds report commissioned by the Trunk Roads
Authority (TRA/K/1)
- the EKOS report commissioned by Scottish Enterprise
(TRA/U/1)
- the Outline Business Case prepared by the local
authorities (TRA/L/7); and
- individual Scottish Enterprise and local authority
policies and projects designed to capitalise on the
M74C.
The Simmonds report
8.2 The Simmonds report appraised the impacts of the
scheme in terms of employment impacts, including their
spatial and social distribution issues, and with
regeneration, social inclusion and land-use/transport
planning integration issues.
8.3 This report is based on a computer based forecasting
model using the CSTCS Land Use/Transport Interaction model,
which has 4 principal components, namely, a transport
model, an economic model, an urban land-use model, and a
migration model. The transport model takes inputs which
describe activities (different categories of residents and
jobs) by zone, for a given year; forecasts travel by car
and by public transport; and estimates costs and times of
travel between each pair of zones, allowing for congestion
caused by the forecast traffic. The economic model
forecasts the growth (or decline) of sectors of the economy
in the sub-regions of Scotland, with inputs including
forecasts of growth in the overall Scottish economy.
Forecasts by sector and sub-region are influenced by
factors such as costs of transport, consumer demand, and
rental values. The urban model forecasts the location of
households and jobs within the urban areas of Glasgow and
the Clyde Valley, locations being strongly influenced by
the supply of housing and commercial floor space. The
migration model forecasts migration between sub-regions of
Scotland. The inputs to this model include job
opportunities and housing costs, from the urban model. Job
opportunities are a strong incentive to migration; housing
costs are generally a weak disincentive.
8.4 Given the 4 components and the inter-action between
them, complex possibilities exist for feedback between
them. Thus an improvement in transport to generate economic
growth might generate additional travel, which in turn may
cause increased congestion and worsening transport
conditions.
8.5 Assessment of impacts required assumptions on the
employment and demographic scenario for Scotland; land use
policy inputs; the reference case transport network,
without the M74C; and other transport assumptions such as
fuel costs. The model was then run to produce the reference
case forecast, i.e. a full set of results from running all
the model components in sequence to 2030, without the
M74C.
8.6 A second set of forecasts was then produced, adding
the M74C to the transport inputs, while keeping all other
inputs the same as in the reference case. Given the model's
linkages from transport to economy, land-use and migration,
the results from the M74C test are nearly all different, to
some extent, from those of the reference case. These
differences define the impact of the M74C.
8.7 Overall the results show that Glasgow and the Clyde
Valley gradually gain employment as a result of the M74C,
at the expense of other parts of Scotland. About one
quarter of the total effect up to 2030 is the initial
short-term impact. The remaining impacts are the gradual
result of improvements in accessibility and reductions in
transport costs affecting the distribution of
investment.
8.8 The gradual gains in employment also reflect the
longer-term multipliers such as improvements in employment
opportunities attracting migrant households which generate
further increases in employment. The impacts are small
percentages but very significant absolute values. The gain
in jobs in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley amounts to some
20,000 jobs by 2030. In percentage terms, this is only +2%.
The local authorities confirm that there is an adequate
supply of land and premises in the Glasgow/Clyde Valley
area to accommodate the demand.
8.9 Since the model is constrained to a fixed economic
forecast for Scotland as a whole, the gains in Glasgow and
the Clyde Valley must be balanced by losses elsewhere.
Displacement from other areas varies between 1% and 2%,
with wide differences in the absolute impacts. These losses
are greater in the Forth (-8000) and Ayrshire (-3000)
areas, which are in closer competition with Glasgow and the
Clyde Valley, while lower in the north (-2000). The
population impacts are slight, dominated by migration
following the changes in employment. The population of
Glasgow and the Clyde Valley increases, with a slight loss
in population in all other areas. By 2030 Glasgow and the
Clyde Valley has gained some 14,000 residents.
8.10 Within Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, the predicted
employment increases at 2030 are about 11,000 for Glasgow;
4000 for Renfrewshire; and around 3000 each for East
Renfrewshire and South Lanarkshire. North Lanarkshire would
be expected to gain about 1500 jobs, and East
Dunbartonshire less than 500. West Dunbartonshire (-500)
and Inverclyde (-1200) are forecast to lose slightly in
employment . These impacts are due to the M74C being more
useful, in general, to businesses in the west of the
conurbation, as a means of travel eastwards to other parts
of the conurbation, central and southern Scotland and to
England, than it is to businesses in the east of the
conurbation - though for the latter, it would be important
as a means of better access to Glasgow Airport and the
wider world. The negative impacts on West Dunbartonshire
and Inverclyde are due to forecasts of increasing
congestion around the Erskine Bridge.
8.11 The expression "negative impacts" simply means less
positive than in the reference case. In this particular
case, the negative impacts for Inverclyde and West
Dunbartonshire would mean slower growth in employment,
rather than absolute decline.
8.12 The positive impacts on the economies of Greater
Glasgow and Lanarkshire arise mainly in the service
sectors, rather than in manufacturing. The positive impacts
on employment would tend to be in non-manual rather than in
manual employment. The impact of the M74C in this respect
involves additional non-manual jobs (and marginally more
manual jobs), not a shift of jobs from manual to
non-manual, an impact that will generally occur as slight
increases in trends over time, rather than a major step
change which might cause greater problems of
adjustment.
8.13 The modest level of the population changes are
consistent with the finding in CSTCS that households
increasingly adjust to changes in workplace by changing
their commuting habits rather than by changing their place
of residence. These results are consistent with the M74C
making a substantial contribution to improving the
efficiency of the local economy and the attractiveness of
the area for investment, with Lanarkshire's links to
Glasgow being sufficiently strong that it tends to gain
rather than to lose from these changes. The results already
include multiplier effects, which do not necessarily occur
in the same district as the initial effect.
Employment Impacts
8.14 A key issue is whether the impacts redistribute
employment in Scotland in such a way as to favour the
officially Assisted Areas. The areas that gain most in
employment, in the South Side of Glasgow and in
Renfrewshire, overlap the 20% aid limit Assisted Area.
Whilst some of the positive impacts fall in non-Assisted
Areas and some of the growth diverted from other parts of
Scotland would be drawn away from other Assisted Areas,
there would be a significant benefit from the M74C in
respect of the distribution of employment within
Scotland.
8.15 In regard to the overall employment impacts on
Scotland<, the model used the same economic scenario for
Scotland in the reference case and the M74C case, with the
result that the total levels of employment are very nearly
constant in both cases. The overall impacts for Scotland
require to be assessed outside the model itself, whilst
drawing on the model analysis, particularly of
accessibility. The M74C should improve the competitiveness
of central Scotland and its ability to attract inward
investment, with a positive net impact.
8.16 In regard to regeneration effects, social inclusion
and integration, the appraisal took account of the
strategies set out in the GCVSP, the conclusion being that
the M74C would significantly increase demand for property
in many of the development areas identified by the GCVSP,
with only a limited negative impact on a smaller number of
such areas. On balance, the scheme would positively assist
proposals for regeneration and development.
The EKOS Report
8.17 This report, commissioned by Scottish Enterprise to
produce an up-to-date economic appraisal of the M74C, sets
out the overall economic development case for the project
and highlights the key benefits for Scotland in general in
terms of national economic policy, and the Glasgow
metropolitan region in particular. It covers the
overarching economic rationale, place competitiveness, and
support for other key initiatives.
8.18 Policies of both the UK Government and the Scottish
Executive seek to achieve high and stable levels of growth
and employment, ensuring that all the regions of the UK
perform to their full economic potential. Currently
Scotland under-performs against the UK; and within
Scotland, the West of Scotland under performs against both
the UK and Scotland as a whole in terms of economic
activity rates. Economic activity rates within areas such
as Edinburgh, and Perth and Kinross are over 10% higher
than Glasgow, which remains the area with the lowest level
of economic activity.
8.19 The M74C and related regeneration initiatives
should increase Scotland's economic growth by raising
economic activity rates in the west of Scotland, reducing
the likelihood of overheating of labour and development
markets in the east. In the national context, the project
is a key piece of infrastructure necessary to maximise
future growth and prosperity for both the Glasgow
city/region and Scotland as a whole.
8.20 SE support for the M74C is based on improving the
West of Scotland's economic and business competitiveness,
releasing a range of new development opportunities
necessary to support future economic growth, and the
project being a specific piece of infrastructure necessary
to support SE priority projects.
8.21 In the event of the M74C not proceeding, there is
likely to be not only a loss of new investment but also the
potential future loss of existing investment, as other city
regions in the UK continue to invest in their transport
infrastructure and improve their competitive position.
8.22 Labour markets, business locations, accessibility
to customers, housing choices, tourism, the shape, density
and pattern of urban areas influence and are influenced by
the availability, price and speed of transport links. The
M74C will support the place competitiveness of the west of
Scotland by improving business competitiveness. There are
around 50,000 businesses and one million workers in the
Glasgow metropolitan area who will have access to an
improved transport network which will also support the
attraction and retention of staff, movement of goods and
people, and improve reliability and efficiency. For many
businesses, it is not the direct cost of transport, but the
unreliability of the network that causes problems.
8.23 Economic sustainability and growth are essential to
provide prosperity and quality of life for the people who
live and work in the west of Scotland. The Simmonds Report
forecasts a population increase of more than 13,500 by 2030
as a result of the project, increasing the total household
income of the Greater Glasgow/Lanarkshire area by nearly
£275 million per year.
8.24 Development of sites which will either be released
or made more attractive by the M74C is a key benefit of the
project. This will have a significant impact on the
provision and availability of business land and property, a
pre-requisite of economic growth.
8.25 The M74C runs through some of the poorest areas in
Scotland with economic activity levels well below the UK
and Scottish average. The project will support the
regeneration of these areas through a process of physical
renewal, integrated with other regeneration activity.
8.26 In particular, the M74C should lead to the
following:
- reduction of around 600 hectares of vacant,
derelict and contaminated land;
- increase in land and property values to help
address market failure constraints;
- improved viability of future property development,
through making development of key sites more attractive
to the private sector thereby removing the need for
higher levels of public support;
- development of key sites in areas of deprivation
for future economic activity;
- development of 660,000m
2 of business space, which will support
25,000 (gross) new jobs.
8.27 In addition, the project will promote tourism, the
international image of the Glasgow and Clyde Valley area,
and the economy and efficiency of Glasgow Airport.
8.28 Support is also drawn from the Cities Review
(TRA/L/2), which concludes that the cities are at the
centre of Scotland's economic growth and dynamism and that,
whilst each is unique and individual, the cities are
central to the regions that surround them and have a key
role to play in the growth and dynamism of those
regions.
8.29 The Glasgow city/region economy is the largest
contributor to the economic well being of Scotland, and its
absolute and relative economic performance is vital to
Scotland. The M74C would support and facilitate its growth
and the overall place competitiveness of Scotland.
Scottish Enterprise Key Initiatives
8.30 The M74C would support a number of key SE projects,
including the Clyde Waterfront Regeneration Plan; the Clyde
Gateway and East End Regeneration; the development of
Glasgow Airport; and the Glasgow Science Zone. It is seen
as a vital prerequisite to maximise the potential for the
regeneration of the Clyde Gateway and the East End
Regeneration Route.
Outline Business Case
8.31 The Outline Business Case submitted to the Scottish
Executive in September 2000 indicated that the M74C would
"provide the improved accessibility needed to unlock the
potential for economic development and regeneration of
vacant and under-used sites along the south side of the
River Clyde from Cambuslang in the east through to the
airport and further west" (OBC, page 17).
8.32 The OBC identified the location, scale, and
employment potential of 17 strategic sites which were
either directly accessible to, or in close proximity to the
M74/M8 corridor, of which 7 are wholly/partly in Glasgow.
These included sites which were 'safeguarded' as single
user inward investment sites, and sites which were
identified as strategic industrial locations within the
1997-99 Western Scotland objective 2 programme. The OBC
suggested that if all of these sites were fully developed,
at accepted employment densities, they could accommodate
42,000 jobs.
8.33 The OBC also recognised that while only one of
these sites (Cambuslang Investment Park) was within the
immediate vicinity of the M74, many of the other sites
would benefit from improved accessibility/journey times
through relieving congestion on the existing motorway
network in the city. This is particularly the case with the
key sites on the west side of the city which are
constrained by congestion problems on the Kingston
Bridge/Charing Cross section of the M8.
8.34 The OBC indicated that the M74C would unlock
substantial economic development potential within local
areas accessible to the motorway itself. Within a 1.5 km
corridor of the road line there were approximately 114 ha
of land available for industrial or business use, excluding
Cambuslang Investment Park. If fully developed, at normal
employment densities, these sites could accommodate a
further 12,000 jobs. (OBC, page 21-22). The sites are
concentrated in key development clusters as follows:
- Cambuslang Investment Park
- Clydesmill (Westburn) (S Lanarkshire)
- Farme Cross (S Lanarkshire)
- Dalmarnock (Glasgow)
- Gorbals/Oatlands (Glasgow)
- Tradeston (Glasgow)
Regional Regeneration Context
8.35 The regional regeneration context of the M74
Completion scheme is set out in 2 key regional policy
documents, namely, the GCVSP and '
Metropolitan Glasgow - a Vision for the Glasgow City
Region'.
8.36 The objectives of the Glasgow and Clyde Valley
Structure Plan (Part 4, page 8, para 4.1) include:
- increasing economic competitiveness
- promoting greater social inclusion and
integration
- sustaining and enhancing the natural and built
environment
- integrating land use and transportation.
8.37 The means of achieving these objectives
include:
- strengthening communities by focusing new
development at appropriate locations within existing
urban and rural settlements; and
- promoting a corridor of growth which promotes new
economic development in locations which are well linked
to areas of social need, and better related to the
transport network.
8.38 The GCVSP identifies gaps in the strategic road
network as being a major constraint on the competitiveness
of the metropolitan area. The M74C is specifically
identified as a crucial link which "will improve access to
and from Inverclyde, West Dunbartonshire, Renfrewshire and
Glasgow Airport, through Glasgow City Centre to Lanarkshire
and the national motorway network of the M74/M6 (GCVSP,
Part 8, page 44, para 8.21). The M74C is also seen as a key
component of the Clyde Gateway Initiative where it will
contribute to "…a new focus of economic development based
upon the key position of the Clyde Gateway in the existing
and proposed transport network." (Structure Plan, part 7,
page 32, para 7.32)
8.39 The Scottish Executive Review Of Scotland's Cities
(
Building Better Cities, Scottish Executive, 2003)
suggests that cities are at the centre of Scotland's
economic growth and dynamism, and that efficient and
effective transport connectivity are key factors in the
success of cities. It concludes "…transport is central to
the economic social and environmental future of Scotland's
cities…" (Review of Scotland's Cities - The Analysis, page
159). In its presentation to the Cities Review 'Sounding
Board', GCC identified the M74C as one of the main
infrastructure 'gaps' in the city.
8.40 The Cities Review required each of Scotland's 6
cities to prepare, and submit to the Scottish Executive for
approval, long term visions for the future of their
city-region areas. The vision statement for Glasgow (
Metropolitan Glasgow - Our Vision For the Glasgow City
region) was approved by a wide variety of bodies
including the 8 local authorities within the Clyde Valley
Structure Plan area, Scottish Enterprise, the Greater
Glasgow Health Board, Jobcentre Plus, and the Glasgow
Chamber of Commerce (May 2003), and was subsequently
endorsed by the Scottish Executive in June 2003. The Clyde
Valley Community Planning Partnership has now been
established to oversee its implementation
8.41 The report identifies 11 key regeneration projects
and programmes where "successful delivery will make a real
contribution to our overall social and economic
prospects…(and which) …will unlock substantial areas of
land for new business and residential development. They
will improve our connectivity….offer potential for new
business development and investment …and…for major labour
market and re-connection programmes. (page 20)
8.42 The M74C and the Clyde Gateway are both identified
as key regeneration projects which offer the potential to
unlock substantial new residential and business development
opportunities along the 5 mile corridor between Cambuslang
and the Gorbals, with potential through the proposed
linkages between the M74/the proposed East End Regeneration
Route/M8 to secure major regeneration benefits for the East
End of Glasgow as a whole. The realisation of these
opportunities is however crucially dependent on the M74C
proceeding.
The Local Regeneration Context
8.43 The 3 councils provided extensive detailed evidence
relating to current development constraints, regeneration
potential, economic policies and prospects for the
respective administrative areas. In each area, economic
forums comprising representatives of local business and
industry, Scottish Enterprise and other agencies have been
established. These forums have each devised economic
development strategies based on the M74 completion as an
essential infrastructure requirement. The project was
necessary to promote the take up of industrial sites and
premises; the regeneration of vacant, derelict and
contaminated land; social inclusion initiatives; and the
improvement of jobs potential through skills training
programmes. The strategies were wholly consistent with
national, strategic and local economic and land use plans
and policies.
8.44 The information supplied by the councils is too
detailed to be summarised in the text of this report. The
various precognitions and documents produced may be
referred to for their terms. Much of this information
formed the basis on which the OBC, the Simmonds Report, and
the EKOS Report were prepared.
8.45
Within Glasgow, projects of particular
note are the Clyde Gateway, the East End Regeneration
Route, the Clyde Waterfront project, Social Inclusion
Partnerships in the Gorbals and East End, and the
development of local labour training and recruitment
programmes to ensure a workforce trained to capitalise on
the demands of inward investment is in place.
8.46
Within South Lanarkshire, the economic
strategy recognises the industrial and business decline in
Rutherglen and Cambuslang, and regeneration initiatives,
heavily dependent on the M74C, are in place for these
communities. The Clyde Gateway project - a Metropolitan
Flagship Initiative - also covers Dalmarnock Trading
Estate, Shawfield and the Farme Cross areas of South
Lanarkshire, and the initiative as a whole will benefit
Rutherglen and Cambuslang and indeed a wider area. The
Clydesmill Strategic Employment Site, where the council has
purchased 6ha of land and has invested £4m in site
servicing, would also benefit significantly from the M74C
and may be a suitable site for relocation of a number of
businesses on the line of the motorway extension.
8.47
Within Renfrewshire, the Renfrewshire
Economic Strategy highlights regeneration along the River
Clyde from the city centre westwards, and the promotion of
Glasgow Airport and the surrounding area. RC has an
Economic Development Operating Plan, incorporating a 3 year
rolling programme of activity focussing on place
competitiveness, an attractive environment for inward
investment, and ensuring that Renfrewshire residents are
best placed to benefit from increased economic activity.
Key development sites include Hillington Business Park,
Phoenix Linwood, Inchinnan, and Erskine.
Impact on existing businesses/relocation
8.48 The number of businesses on the route of the M74C
is estimated at 186, involving 2,500 - 3,000 employees. The
TRA does not appear to have spoken directly with the
businesses concerned and has assumed that all businesses
would relocate. No account has been taken of businesses
choosing or being forced to cease trading. Again, little
has been done to ascertain the practicalities of relocation
in terms of costs and timescales.
8.49 A dedicated M74 Relocation Team comprising staff
from the three councils and under the control of GCC has
been established to assist with business relocation, and a
sum of £900,000 has been set aside to finance feasibility
studies, business plans and the like. The Valuation Agency
is involved in negotiating compensation and early voluntary
acquisition is being actively promoted.
The Case for JAM74/FOE
8.50 The objectors' case is based on serious doubts as
to the economic benefits and regeneration opportunities
claimed by the TRA and proponents of the M74C. The doubts
stem from criticism of the Simmonds and EKOS reports; the
findings of the Commons Standing Advisory Committee on
Trunk Road Assessment (SACTRA) Report on Transport and the
Economy (document JAG/15, 1999); and a number of largely
Scottish based academic research papers.
8.51 The objectors argue that the Simmonds report does
not consider factors beyond central Scotland, and gives
limited consideration to land use and transport changes
elsewhere in Scotland and to the labour market. Assumptions
used are too simplistic. Forecasting growth is not the
issue. It is the distribution of that growth which is more
important and less certain. The EKOS report lists land
availability without commenting on likely uptake; expressly
indicates that displacement is outwith its remit; and is
all but silent on the issue of demand. The predictions of
job growth in both reports are highly suspect.
8.52 The SACTRA report on Transport and the Economy was
the culmination of a 3 year inquiry chaired by Eileen
Mackay CB into claims of economic benefit from road
schemes. The report notes (summary, page 17, paragraph 11)
that the contribution of road construction to sustainable
economic growth of a mature economy, with well developed
transport systems, is likely to be modest. It states that
the results of studies of the economic impact of completed
transport projects "
do not offer convincing general evidence of the size,
nature or direction of local economic impacts". The
report goes on to state that "
Our studies underline the conclusion that
generalisations about the effects of transport on the
economy are subject to strong dependence on specific local
circumstances and conditions."
8.53 The SACTRA report recommends that a more rigorous
approach to forecasting the economic benefits of transport
schemes is adopted, in the form of an Economic Impact
Report. This has been widely accepted and has established
the requirement for such reports for new transport schemes
in England and Wales, where regeneration benefits are
claimed. Guidance on the preparation of these reports has
been published (document JAG/3). It requires a range of
options to be considered, with forecasts covering numbers
of jobs and types of economic activity, as well as
assessment of uncertainty and risk.
8.54 As regards the M74C, the objectors consider that
there are 3 areas where the approach commended in the
SACTRA report and the resulting guidance can assist,
namely, forecasting new economic activity and job creation;
reduction in journey times increasing competitiveness; and
regeneration of vacant, derelict and contaminated land
along the route corridor.
8.55 On the first issue, while the objectors accept that
a new road could lead to job creation and inward
investment, none of this is guaranteed. The SACTRA report
highlighted the two way road effect, where the construction
of a new road could improve accessibility so that job
creation and investment is drawn away from the area where
the road construction takes place to a more favourably
located area, reducing local employment and competitiveness
to the advantage of places elsewhere. The extent to which
this might happen depends on a number of factors such as
the extent of competition in the transport sectors, and
land and labour markets. In its guidance on the preparation
of Economic Impact Reports, the Department of Transport
highlights 4 questions to be addressed which deal with the
regeneration area being accessed by an external labour
force; better access to jobs elsewhere increasing local
wage costs; better access to retail facilities elsewhere
leading to closures in the regeneration area; and
identification of businesses vulnerable to external
competition. The objectors consider that the TRA does not
appear to have taken these possibilities into account.
8.56 While temporary jobs would be created during
construction, the cost per job would be high, and other
public spending would bring greater benefit. Research in
Germany suggests that road construction as a job creator is
inferior to rail infrastructure, while in the UK rail
projects provide better value for money than road building.
Other academic research indicates support for the SACTRA
conclusion that economic benefits do not automatically
follow from new road building, arising where, unlike
Glasgow, existing infrastructure is poor and where the new
road is an integral part of wider economic policy. Lower,
but better targeted spending, could boost GDP more than
increased transport spending. Links between road building
and economic growth are weak or non-existent, depending on
the particular circumstances.
8.57 Wider sourcing and marketing, while of benefit to
individual firms, might not lead to growth in the national
economy but simply a redistribution of economic activity.
Research suggests that the claim by proponents of the M74C
that M8 congestion handicaps business in the west of
Scotland is over-stated. There is no evidence that Scottish
industry pays more for road transport on account of its
peripheral location.
8.58 Investment in rail infrastructure should feature
prominently in peripheral regions, along with road pricing
which is seen as a more appropriate solution than road
building. While academic research suggests that road
construction to relieve bottlenecks holding back rapid
economic expansion may bring benefits, this is not the
situation in relation to the M74C. Investing in
infrastructure in conditions of low economic growth, where
infrastructure is already in place, is unlikely to boost
economic activity. If the M8 is a bottleneck, other
measures such as road pricing should be the initial
response.
8.59 While the possibility of redistribution of economic
activity away from congested areas exists, the conditions
necessary for this to happen are not in place. The result
is likely to be that activity will be centralised,
benefiting areas least in need of economic expansion. While
surveys indicate that road infrastructure has a greater
impact on inward investment than for investment by Scottish
firms, it is endogenous firms which should be supported for
sustainable employment. Improved road access to Glasgow
airport is at odds with the Scottish Executive's objective
of promoting rail access to the airport.
8.60 Jobs, and particularly jobs for socially excluded
communities, can be created by other methods than by
building the M74C. Better management of existing road
capacity by, say, electronic road pricing and more use of
public transport could be bolstered by application of road
toll revenues to promote public transport. While travel to
work times can be an obstacle to employment, research
suggests socio-economic factors such as gender, dependent
children, and education are more influential in
establishing travel times and employment opportunities than
public transport, accessibility, and private transport. Two
out of 5 job seekers find lack of transport a barrier to
obtaining employment, while the average distance to work
for employees on low incomes is 3 miles compared to 8 miles
for the rest of the working population. Further research on
this subject is necessary but the evidence suggests that a
full multi-modal exercise should have taken place before
the Orders were promoted, if Scottish Executive policies on
environmental justice and social inclusion were to be
followed. Such a study would have been unlikely to support
the M74C.
8.61 As regards journey times and competitiveness, it is
well established that induced traffic from new road
construction can reduce or eliminate projected journey time
savings. There is also the issue of suppressed demand
taking up any spare road space that is created. It is not
clear whether the TRA has taken account of such influences.
A White Paper published by the Department of Transport in
2003 acknowledged the danger of benefits being eroded over
time, and the need to lock in such benefits through traffic
management measures such as ramp metering and congestion
charging. This matter is also considered in the CSTCS (see
paragraph 2.29 above). No such measures have been proposed
for the M74C. Experience of new road construction at the
M25 and in West Yorkshire, where no measures were
introduced, demonstrate the point.
8.62 The SACTRA investigation also found that journey
time reliability could be as important as time savings.
Time savings and competitiveness should also be assessed in
the wider context. Land and labour market conditions
coupled with reduced congestion might encourage development
at motorway junctions elsewhere in central Scotland, making
Glasgow and the surrounding area less competitive. Land and
labour factors are generally more significant than
transport costs with the result that the impact of time
savings would likely to be of a low order. In any event,
economic benefits based on time savings are questionable.
Logistic savings from past road building should be seen as
a one off benefit arising from development of the network
rather than the upgrading of individual links. The TRA has
not considered other options.
8.63 As regards reclamation of vacant, derelict, or
contaminated land, this could be undertaken at any time and
the M74C is not a prerequisite. The TRA claim in regard to
the M74C promoting the reclamation of vacant, derelict, and
contaminated land has been overstated. Much of the land
affected is unattractive, with little prospect of
redevelopment.
8.64 The benefits of the M74C for the deprived and
excluded communities is also debatable, given the two way
road effect, and job opportunities being available to
people from other areas. Education and skills training are
regarded as more important factors in securing employment.
People without access to cars will remain disadvantaged,
particularly those in peripheral estates poorly served by
public transport. The focus should be on improving access
to activities that have most impact on life chances such as
access to work, learning and healthcare. Poor communities
not only lack good transport services but also suffer from
the negative impacts of transport related pollution,
community severance, and noise. This represents
environmental injustice.
8.65 The objectors argue that a road project on its own
such as the M74C is not sustainable. The Scottish Executive
Guidance on Local Transport Strategies (2000)
advised that, for a road transport project to be justified
on economic development grounds, it needs to be
demonstrated that devoting resources to the transport
project would represent a more cost-effective means of
developing the local economy than the use of other existing
policy instruments. The Scottish Executive has failed to
follow its own guidance. There should be a sustainable UK
transport strategy, with funding from fuel tax and road
charging, designed to reduce overall traffic levels while
promoting economic growth and other policy objectives. An
integrated policy package would give confidence to private
investors, whereas the M74C on its own will not.
8.66 Support for a move in this direction is drawn from
recent developments in San Francisco and Portland, Oregon,
where the removal of freeways both at grade and grade
separation has brought about significant transport
improvements and major economic regeneration.
The Case for SAPT
8.67 The SAPT did not lead any witness on this topic,
choosing to rely on testing the TRA evidence through
cross-examination. There was concern at the wide variations
in the forecasts of jobs growth, the suggestion being that
they were over optimistic. The Simmonds report was closely
examined as to what had and had not been included in the
modelling exercise. While the TRA claimed that the exercise
had been carried out in accordance with "best practice", no
audit of similar exercises had been undertaken to assess
the validity of the methodology and results. While the
model took account of factors such as changes in fuel
costs, and walking and cycling as modes of transport, it
did not take account of the costs of pollution and
congestion, nor of factors such as the increase in people
working from home. The suggestion was that the exercise had
been designed to produce a certain result.
8.68 The TRA claim that the M74C is a key piece of
infrastructure was challenged, given other constraints such
as water and drainage capacities and the extent of vacant,
derelict, and contaminated land, much of which appeared in
the industrial land supply. While no estimates of costs for
remediation of all sites affected were available, SE
estimates for Clyde Gateway remediation were in the region
of £50 million. The application of the M74C acquisition
costs, estimated at £140 million, to address contaminated
land would be a better use of public money. Many of the
sites in the land supply are located some distance from the
motorway network and public transport. The Cities Review
(TRAL/2 at page 165) states "A poorly sited development,
largely dependent on car access, will lock in problems for
the long term".
8.69 Jobs would be generated irrespective of the M74C.
Indeed, jobs may be lost to other parts of the central belt
as a result of the M74C. While the TRA claims that SE
support for flagship initiatives such as Clyde Gateway and
the Waterfront Project depend on the M74C, in all
likelihood the local authorities would deliver some form of
package for the regeneration areas. The EKOS report (page
5) indicates that Glasgow City has out performed other
areas and that has been done without the M74C. In general,
job seekers do not have access to cars, hence there should
be more investment in public transport.
The Case for Dr M Hersh
8.70 Dr Hersh argued that there is little evidence on
the ground of any economic regeneration by the 3 councils
and SE. The M74C is not needed to regenerate communities
that have been largely destroyed by the threat of the new
road. The TRA claim that no local shops are to be
demolished is irrelevant. The fact is that demolition has
already taken place, and the evidence is to be found in
streets such as Aikenhead Road and Rutherglen Road.
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