Scottish Government

RESULTS OF TEACHER WORKFORCE PLANNING FOR 2005/06

15 February 2005

A Scottish Executive National Statistics Publication

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The tables are also available in Excel format (96k)

This document contains the latest results of the Scottish Executive's annual round of teacher workforce planning. It gives the background information that is used in the process of planning teacher training intakes necessary to meet requirements, including government commitments on class contact time, class size and extra teachers. The following information is shown

• pupil number projections
• teacher number projections necessary to meet government commitments.
• information on the numbers of teachers joining and leaving the teacher workforce.
• information on the number of vacancies in schools.
• advice provided on the future requirement for newly qualified teachers.

Pupil Projections

Projected numbers of pupils were created using the population projections obtained from the General Register Office for Scotland. They are therefore not a prediction of what will happen, but a projection based on assumptions about fertility, migration, etc.

The main findings were: -

• The number of pupils in pre-school centres was projected to decrease from 56,000 in 2003 to around 55,000 in 2006, rise to 57,000 in 2008 before again falling to 52,000 by 2014. This is in line with the expected patterns in the number of children of pre-school age.
• The number of pupils in publicly funded primary schools was projected to continue to fall steadily from 406,000 in September 2003 to 350,000 in 2014, 14 per cent less than 2003.
• The number of pupils in publicly funded secondary schools was projected to decrease from 318,000 in September 2003 to 268,000 in 2014, 16 per cent less than in 2003.
• The numbers of pupils in publicly funded special schools and independent schools were both projected to fall, in line with the anticipated decrease in the number of children of school age. The projections take account of changing trends in the mainstreaming of special school pupils.

Teacher Projections

Projected teacher figures were based on the projected pupil numbers, taking into account different pupil teacher ratios in different size schools, and information from the September 2003 School Census. The figures were then increased to incorporate the extra teachers needed to implement the agreement 'A Teaching Profession for the 21 ^st Century' (the teachers pay and conditions agreement), and the Executive's Partnership Agreement commitment to increase teacher numbers to 53,000 teachers by 2007. Ministers have yet to make decisions on policy regarding staffing levels beyond 2007. Projections beyond 2007 in this publication are therefore simply based on an assumption that pupil/teacher ratios will remain constant at 2007 levels.

The main findings were:

• The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded pre-school centres was projected to fluctuate around the September 2003 level of 1,700 before falling to 1,600 by 2014.
• The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded primary schools was projected to rise steadily from 22,300 in 2003 to 23,750 in 2007, before potentially falling to 22,400 by 2014.
• The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded secondary schools was projected to rise steadily from 24,900 in 2003 to 25,800 in 2007, before potentially falling to 23,100 by 2014.
• In the publicly funded special sector, teacher numbers were expected to decrease gradually in line with the projected gradual decline in the number of pupils at special schools. The projections took account of changing trends in the mainstreaming of special school pupils.

Teachers joining or leaving the workforce

• From the available information, about two per cent of the workforce retired during 2002/03 (incl. ill health and early retirement), one per cent left to take maternity leave, and two per cent left for other reasons.
• From the available information, about three per cent of the workforce joined as first appointments, and two per cent were returning after a break in employment in Scotland (including maternity).

Teacher Vacancies at February 2004

The main findings of a snap-shot survey from education authorities were:

• Vacancy figures were higher than in previous years. There were 790 advertised vacancies on Friday February 13 ^th 2004, which was less than two per cent of the full teaching complement. 335 of these had been vacant for more than three months.
• The highest vacancy rates were in Gaelic medium (eight per cent), general science (four per cent, although this involves small numbers), and modern studies (four per cent).

Requirement for newly qualified teachers

The Partnership Agreement committed the Executive to provide 53,000 teachers by 2007. This becomes the main driver in the workforce planning model, with an additional adjustment to ensure adequate numbers of supply teachers. The number of new teachers each year has therefore been planned taking into consideration practical limitations of teacher training establishments and the need to ensure enough teachers to meet the 2006 class contact time reductions of 'A Teaching Profession for the 21 ^st Century'. The main results were:

• There was a 42 per cent increase in the intake to primary PGCE courses (from 614 in Autumn 2003 to 873 in Autumn 2004), and a 35 per cent increase in the intake to secondary PGCE courses (from 841 to 1,137).
• The future requirement for new primary and pre-school teachers will rise to 1,790 in 2006 and 1,760 in 2007. The number could then fall to about 1,200 in 2008 before rising each year due to the age profile of the teaching workforce. Reductions in class sizes in P1 could be met from within these numbers.
• The requirement for new secondary teachers will increase to 1,750 in both 2006 and 2007. The number could then fall to about 900 in 2008 before rising to about 1,150 due to the age profile of the teaching workforce. Reductions in class sizes in S1 and S2 maths and English could be met from within these numbers.

CONTENTS

Tables

Table 1 Projected number of pupils, by school sector.
Table 2 Projected number of FTE teachers, by school sector.
Table 3 Information on teachers leaving the workforce
Table 4 Information on teachers joining the workforce
Table 5 Vacancies in schools

Charts
Chart 1 Number of pupils and FTE teachers in publicly funded primary and secondary schools.
Chart 2 Modelled future requirement of newly qualified teachers.

BACKGROUND NOTES

1. The information in this Publication Notice is derived from:

a) Census of Pre-school Education Centres, 2003 - pupil counts and 2003 teacher counts
b) School Census September 2001, 2002, 2003 - pupil and teacher counts.
c) General Register Office for Scotland - 2003 population projections.

2. The methodology employed in projecting pupil numbers is described in Provisional Pupil Numbers, Projections and Children Educated Outwith School, 2003/04, published in November 2004.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00378-00.asp

3. The teacher projections firstly consider pupil and teacher counts from the School Census on a school-by-school basis. FTE teacher numbers are then forecast for each school, based on the projected school roll and a pupil/teacher ratio. This ratio is dependent on the size of the school.

4. Additional teachers needed as a result of government commitments are incorporated in the teacher projections. The two specific factors from the agreement giving rise to an increased demand for teachers are:

(a) Commitment to 53,000 teachers by 2007.
(b) Reduction in class contact time to 22.5 hours per week.

Projections beyond 2007 are based on maintaining the pupil/teacher ratios for that year. Policy decisions have yet to be reached on the situation post 2007.

5. Projected teacher figures are fed into the Teacher Workforce Planning model, which estimates the number of new teachers that will be needed each year to meet this overall demand. The model takes account of a range of other relevant information, such as age profiles and numbers of teachers entering and leaving the profession. Note that the Teacher Workforce Planning model operates on a headcount (rather than FTE) basis, as its main aim is to advise on how many students should be admitted to teacher training courses each year.

6. All tables are available on the Scottish Executive website at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00401.asp

7. This is a National Statistics publication. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

8. Public enquiries (non-media) about the information contained in this Publication Notice should be addressed to

Mal Cooke, Pupil Teacher and School Statistics, SEED, 1-A Victoria Quay, Edinburgh, EH6 6QQ. Telephone : 0131 244 1689

or e-mail : school.stats@scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Press Contact: Marion MacKay: telephone 0131 244 3070.

15 February 2005