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Public Attitudes to the Environment in Scotland

2.4 BELIEFS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND FLOODING RISK IN SCOTLAND

There is evidence that the global climate is changing and records show that global temperature is rising. There is an ongoing debate about the cause of this change and what the implications will be in different parts of the world, but there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities, largely through the burning of fossil fuels. When the Kyoto Protocol is brought into force (expected late 2003), the UK will be legally required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 12.5% below 1990 levels by 2012. Scotland has produced a 'Climate Change Programme' and is committed to developing a strategy to adapt to climate change impacts.

Respondents were asked whether they thought the world's climate was changing and what the likely impact would be for Scotland's climate. As can be seen in Table 2.11 below, more than six in every ten people (62%) believed that the world's climate is changing. A further quarter (27%) thought that it is probably changing. Only 5% felt that global climate change probably or definitely is not happening.

These convictions about global climate change varied with some key socio-demographic characteristics. For example, men were more likely to say that they believed the world's climate is definitely changing than women. Also, those in the youngest and oldest age groups were more inclined to say that they did not know if the world's climate is changing than those in the middle two age groups.

There was noticeable variation over this question by highest educational qualification (Figure 2.2). Seven in ten people holding degrees or professional qualifications believed that the climate is definitely changing (70%) and less than 2% did not know. In contrast, fewer than six in ten people with O Grades or equivalent certificates said they thought the world's climate was changing (56%), but 9% said that they did not know. Those in social rented housing were also less convinced that climate change is happening than owner occupiers.

Those who believed that the world's climate is changing were asked what they thought the results of this change would be for Scotland's weather. A number of possible consequences were given, and respondents were asked to pick all those they felt applied. Recent research forecasts that Scotland should experience warmer weather with drier summers and wetter winters with less snowfall. Lower-lying areas will also be at greater risk of flooding, due to rising sea levels, by the end of the 21 ^st century ²¹.

Over half of those who believed that climate change is occurring recognised that Scotland would experience wetter weather in the future (55%) (Table 2.12). Around four in ten people said that weather patterns would be less predictable (42%) and that there would be more flooding (39%). People were less sure whether climate change would mean warmer or cooler temperatures for Scotland; 35% thought that weather would be warmer, but 19% thought the opposite.

* This question was asked of those who believe the world's climate is 'definitely changing' or 'probably changing' only. Respondents could select as many answers as they wished.

When asked to identify the major contributors to climate change from a list of options (Table 2.13), the most commonly selected option was the hole in the ozone layer (62%) and a similar proportion of people selected carbon dioxide emissions (61%). In reality, although carbon dioxide emissions contribute significantly to climate change, the depletion of the ozone layer does not. This level of confusion regarding the impact of ozone depletion is interesting to note given the high levels of concerns for both 'damage to the ozone layer' and 'global warming by the greenhouse effect' shown in Table 2.1. This misunderstanding about the effect of changes to the ozone layer on climate change is also found in DEFRA's 'Public Attitudes to Quality of Life and to the Environment' survey, where 'hole in ozone layer' was selected by seven in ten people in England as a major contributor to climate change (69%) (Table 2.13) ²².

In Scotland, other important factors identified as contributing to climate change were emissions from ground transport (52%), the destruction of forests (47%) and emissions from power stations (43%). The use of gas and electricity in industry was viewed as being slightly more significant than the use of gas and electricity in homes; both play a role depending on how the energy has been generated. Fifteen per cent of people incorrectly thought that the use of mobile phones also contributes to climate change which, in fact, it does not directly ²³.

* Respondents could select as many answers as they wished.

** DEFRA survey asked whether 'emissions from transport' were major contributors to climate change and 65% selected this.

Knowledge about the factors that contribute to global climate change varied quite distinctly with educational attainment, tenure and age (Table 2.14). Interestingly, younger and more highly educated people were more likely to relate ozone depletion to climate change than other groups. The oldest age group and those leaving education with no qualifications were less likely to think that carbon dioxide emissions were important. A greater proportion of men correctly said that carbon dioxide contributes to climate change than women. People from households with two or more cars were more likely to recognise emissions from ground transport and carbon dioxide emissions as being contributors than people from one or no car households.

One likely consequence of climate change will be increased flooding in some areas. Respondents were asked about their perceptions of the current threat of flooding in Scotland. Overall, a third of people thought flooding was 'quite a high risk in a few areas of Scotland' (31%) and 15% said that it was 'quite a high risk in many areas'. A quarter of respondents thought that it was a 'very high risk' in a few or many areas (23%), although this was matched by those who felt that Scotland is generally at low risk from flooding (24%). A final 4% said that flooding was 'not a risk at all' (table not shown).

Respondents were also asked to comment on how likely they thought their own homes were to be flooded. As Table 2.15 shows, seven in ten thought their homes were at no risk at all, and only 5% said they felt their homes were at a very or quite a high risk. The proportions thinking their homes were at no risk of flooding ranged from 79% of those aged 65+ and 77% of those with no qualifications to 65% of those aged 25 to 44 and 61% of those in accessible rural areas.

Using geographical flood zone data, it was possible to classify each respondent's home according to whether it lay within or near to a flood risk zone. Of those people asked about their attitudes to climate change and flood risk, 14% lived in homes which were considered to lie in, or within 0.1 miles of, an area of flood risk. Sixty per cent of those in the flood risk category thought there was no risk of flooding compared with 72% of those outside these zones.

[Table 2.15]

Each respondent was also asked whether their existing home had ever been flooded. Only one in every fifty people stated that they knew this was the case (table not shown). Despite the fact that most people did not think their homes were currently at risk from flooding and only a small number of people knew their homes had been flooded in the past, two thirds of people said that they would definitely or probably find out if a potential home was at risk of flooding before buying it (65%) (Table 2.16). Perhaps not surprisingly, as Table 2.16 also shows, those people who perceived their current home to be at risk were more likely to say they would definitely find out about the flood risk to a future home than those who felt flood risk less acutely. However, even among the group who thought their home was at risk, one in five probably or definitely would not find out about the risk of flooding before buying a home (20%).

* Using flood zone data from the Centre of Ecology and Hydrology (CEH 2001), each respondent's home was classified according to whether or not the centre of their postcode unit lay within or near to a flood risk area. Areas at risk were defined as falling with a flood zone or within 0.1 miles of a flood zone.

2.5 VIEWS ON WATER QUALITY

As Table 2.1 showed, raw sewage put into the sea and the pollution of rivers, lochs and seas, represented the environmental issues of first and third most concern to the general public in Scotland. Respondents were asked some further questions about the quality of rivers and lochs in Scotland and their local area and about seawater off Scottish beaches.

In general, people were less worried about the state of freshwater than seawater (Table 2.1). Table 2.17 shows that in 2002 six in ten people (60%) thought that seawater was of poor quality or grossly polluted, but only around three in ten people (31%) thought the same about the quality of river and loch water in their local area and two in ten people (21%) thought this about Scotland's freshwater on the whole. If these findings are compared with those of the 1991 survey, it appears that public perceptions of both seawater off Scottish beaches and rivers and lochs in local areas have improved since the last survey was carried out. At that time, 28% of people thought that sea water was grossly polluted and only 1% thought it was unpolluted, compared with 17% of people who thought it was grossly polluted and 3% who thought it was unpolluted in 2002 ²⁴.

* Respondents in the 1991 survey were not asked their views on 'rivers and lochs in Scotland'. They were also not given the option of answering 'don't know' for these questions.

2.5.1 Quality of seawater off Scottish beaches

The water quality issue of greatest public concern was the quality of seawater at Scottish beaches. Under the terms of the Urban Waste Water Treatment (Scotland) Regulations (1994), the dumping of sewage sludge at sea ceased in 1998, and since 2000, increased treatment standards prior to discharge have been required for most sewage works serving more than 15,00 people. It has been recognised that diffuse pollution also has an impact on coastal water quality, and steps are being taken to tackle this issue In 2002, 95% of bathing waters in Scotland achieved the mandatory standard, as set out in EC Bathing Water Directive (76/160/EEC) ²⁵.

The survey found that fewer than a third of respondents (31%) thought that seawater off Scottish beaches was unpolluted or fairly good quality, 43% said that seawater was poor quality and 17% said that it was grossly polluted.

These views varied strongly with urban or rural location with those in remote areas particularly likely to think seawater was unpolluted or fairly good quality - 54% did so, compared with 27% of large urban area respondents.

A greater proportion of men thought that seawater was unpolluted or fairly good quality than women (35% of men compared with 28% of women). Those in the oldest age group were more likely to say that they did not know about the quality of seawater than those in other age groups and correspondingly less likely to say water was poor quality. A smaller proportion of people holding degrees or professional qualifications thought that seawater was grossly polluted than in other groups (12%, compared with 19% of people with no educational qualifications).

[Table 2.18]

2.5.2 Quality of water in Scotland's rivers and lochs

Respondents were asked what they thought of the quality of water in Scottish rivers and lochs. Three quarters of Scottish rivers (73%) were classified as 'excellent' in SEPA's Annual Report (2000/2001). Most polluted rivers were located in central regions of Scotland at this time ²⁶.

Around one in ten people thought that most rivers and lochs in Scotland were very good quality, and a further six in ten people described their quality as good.

Those in the youngest age group were most likely to think that the water quality in Scottish rivers and lochs was of poor or very poor quality; 29% of 16-24 year olds said they thought water quality was poor or very poor quality, compared with 19% of 45-64 year olds and 17% of those aged over 65. Although, two thirds of people with no educational qualification thought that water quality in rivers and lochs was very good or good quality (64%), three quarters of respondents possessing Higher certificates (73%) and degree certificates (76%) thought the same.

Perception of water quality was related to where people lived. Those from rural areas were more likely to think that water was good quality than those from urban areas; 27% of respondents living in large urban areas said Scottish river and loch water was poor or very poor quality, compared with 13% of people living in remote rural areas.

[Table 2.19]

2.5.3 Quality of water in local rivers and lochs

On the whole, people were less happy about the quality of water in their local rivers and lochs, than they were about such water in Scotland overall. Table 2.20 shows that those in the youngest age group were again the most concerned; 40% of those aged 16 to 24 years said their local river or loch water was poor or grossly polluted, compared to 28% of those aged 45 to 64 years. This relationship with age may in part reflect the types of areas in which people lived (see Section 1.4).

Respondents from households with children were more concerned than those from households with no children over local water quality; 30% of the first group and 23% of the latter thought it was poor quality. Again, views were closely related to the urban or rural location of a respondent's home. Over eight in ten people living in remote rural parts said their local water was unpolluted or fairly good quality (83%) but only half those from large urban areas (50%) and 57% of those from other urban areas said the same.

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