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TOLLED BRIDGES REVIEW: PHASE ONE REPORT - 29 OCTOBER 2004:

6. Environmental, Economic and Accessibility Issues

6.1 Environmental Issues

One of the aims of the Review is to assess how changes to the Bridge tolls would contribute to the Executive's environmental objectives. Changes to the tolls could influence travel patterns and, in turn, greenhouse gas emissions and air quality.

Changes to the tolling regime are most likely to have a positive environmental impact if they decrease the number of vehicle kilometres travelled, divert traffic away from areas of poor air quality, encourage the use of more environmentally-friendly modes of travel and/or reduce congestion.

A number of consultees have highlighted the need for positive support for public transport on these crossings as a means of reducing congestion and pollution. Some consultees have suggested that consideration should be given to discounts or exemptions from tolls for buses. There is general support for replacing tolls with road user charging schemes and some indication that this should be set within the context of a national road pricing framework.

6.1.1 Climate Change Objective

Carbon dioxide is the major greenhouse gas which contributes to climate change. Road transport accounts for about 11% of Scottish carbon dioxide emissions. The Executive is committed to tackling climate change and is working with the UK Government to meet both the UK Kyoto target of reducing 1990 levels of greenhouse gas emissions by 12.5% by 2008-2012 and the domestic goal of reducing UK carbon dioxide emissions to 20% below 1990 levels by 2010. Beyond this, there is an objective to put the UK on a path to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by some 60% by around 2050.

Should changes to the tolls affect travel patterns by, for example, encouraging new, additional or longer journeys, or increased congestion, this could affect emissions of greenhouse gases.

Calculating changes in carbon dioxide emissions resulting from network changes (such as changes to tolls) requires predictions about the amount and type of road fuel used (based on frequency, routes, modes of journeys and any increases or decreases in numbers of trips) before and after the change. Modelling has shown that tolling changes at Erskine, Forth and Tay Bridges will result in vehicles diverting to or from these Bridges but without an in-depth study of vehicle origins and destinations it is difficult to gauge the impact on the amount of road fuel used. However, for all bridges and scenarios considered in the Review, the indicative changes in Scottish carbon dioxide emissions from road transport, in comparison to the baseline scenario range from a decrease of 0.15% to an increase of 0.36%.

At Skye, however, it is much easier to predict the effect of removing the tolls due to the nature and location of alternative crossing means. Taking an extreme view of traffic growth ^v, the forecast indicates that additional traffic generated by removing Skye's tolls will generate a minimal increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Although the increase is negligible (approximately 0.007%) compared with overall emissions from road transportation in Scotland it nevertheless represents an increase in the context of Executive's efforts to reduce emissions.

6.1.2 Local Air Quality

Emissions from road vehicles are also the largest single cause of local air pollution in Scotland. Local air quality is a measure of the direct impact of emissions of air pollutants on the local populations and is therefore primarily local in nature and varies by time of day and by season.

The Executive has set air quality objectives to be met throughout Scotland by dates ranging from 2003-2010. Local authorities have a duty to review and assess the current, and likely future, air quality in their areas. Where a local authority considers that one or more of the air quality objectives is not likely to be met by the relevant deadline, it must declare an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA), covering the area where the problem is expected. It must then draw up an action plan setting out the measures it intends to take in working towards achieving the air quality objectives.

Any changes to the tolls that increase traffic levels, increase congestion or divert traffic into areas of poor air quality could have a detrimental effect on progress to achieve air quality objectives.

The analysis carried out for Phase One covering Erskine, Tay and Forth Road Bridges could only look at expected changes in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO _x) for each scenario considered (reference MVA report, 2004). A detailed consideration of the effects of these changes on ambient concentrations of pollutants could not be undertaken within the scope of this study. However, using information gathered by Local Authorities it is possible to comment on particular air quality aspects for each Bridge.

Erskine Bridge

When tolls are removed from Erskine Bridge the largest increases in NOx emissions occur on Erskine Bridge and its southern approach (the M8). This situation is reversed when tolls are increased on Erskine bridge - as there are increases in tolls to cross Erskine Bridge, traffic may change route to use the next alternative; therefore there are reductions around Erskine Bridge, but increases around the approach roads and on the Clyde Tunnel.

Looking beyond the Clyde estuary, there are marginal changes in emissions along the A80/M80 to suggest that a degree of strategic (i.e. non-local) traffic (heading to North Scotland) would be affected by a change in toll.

Whilst there are no specific air quality problems in the area around the Erskine Bridge itself, Glasgow City Council has declared an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) in the city centre due to transport related air pollutants. Glasgow City Council is currently consulting on a draft Air Quality Action Plan which sets out a programme of work to reduce pollutant concentration within the AQMA. Any shifting of traffic away from Erskine Bridge towards the city centre could exacerbate an existing air quality problem in that area. In other words: any increase in tolls could discourage some current Erskine Bridge users in favour of the Clyde Tunnel with unwelcome congestion and air quality consequences for the city centre.

Tay Bridge

When tolls are removed from the Tay Bridge, there is an increase in NOx emission on the Tay Bridge and its approaches. Consequently, there is a reduction in emissions from Friarton Bridge towards Dundee and around the Kingsway. When tolls are increased considerably (to cars 2/HGVs 5 and cars 4/HGVs 6) the largest decrease in NOx occurs around the Tay Bridge and its approaches; there is also an increase in emissions from Friarton Bridge towards Dundee.

The northern exit of the Tay Bridge is close to Dundee city centre. Dundee is currently assessing air quality and may declare an AQMA adjacent to the bridge as it is considered that there is a risk of exceeding the air quality objectives due to transport related emissions within the city centre. The Council has reported to the Review Team that congestion/pollution is very time specific during peak hours and that air pollution is greater in enclosed street areas rather than the open bridgehead. Any change to the existing toll regime which alleviated this congestion would have a positive impact on Dundee's air quality.

Forth Road Bridge

When tolls are removed from the Forth Road Bridge, there is an increase in NOx emission across the Forth Road Bridge and its approaches in line with an increase in traffic using the Forth Road Bridge. Consequently, there is a reduction in emissions on Kincardine Bridge. This situation is reversed when tolls on the Forth Road Bridge are increased (to cars 2/HGVs 5 and cars 5/ HGVs 7) thus there are reduced levels of emissions (and traffic) on the Forth Road Bridge and increases at Kincardine. There are also increases in emissions along the M9 and A985 which run parallel to the south and north banks of the Forth Estuary.

There are no specific air quality problems immediately around the Forth Bridge. However the bridge is a major transport link and generator of traffic into Edinburgh - 12% of morning trips are destined for Edinburgh City centre. The City of Edinburgh Council have declared an AQMA which covers the city centre and have published an action plan which sets out the measures they intend to put in place to help them achieve the air quality objectives. As with the Tay, a tolling regime on the Forth bridge which could help reduce congestion in Edinburgh could potentially have a positive impact on the city centre's air quality.

Skye Bridge

There are no specific air quality problems around the Skye Bridge. An assessment of roadside air quality on the bridge (reference TRL 2004, DMRB modelling) indicates that concentrations of the air pollutants considered ^w are currently, and are projected to remain, exceptionally low and well below the corresponding air quality objectives. Using forecast traffic levels, we can predict increases in concentrations associated with removing the tolls at Skye Bridge. These results indicate that there would be hardly any effect on roadside air quality.

6.1.3 Traffic Stabilisation

The Executive has an aspirational target of stabilising road traffic at 2001 levels by 2021, which is ultimately about limiting road traffic's impact on the environment and cutting congestion. However, this is a very challenging area given increasing road traffic levels year on year. In-depth research into road traffic reduction will be reported to Ministers over the next few months.

The Executive is committed to stabilising road traffic volumes by encouraging modal shift from private car to walking, cycling and public transport. This includes initiatives stimulating behavioural change like the current "Choose Another Way" travel awareness campaign, which is targeted at those travelling by car in the three largest Scottish cities - as well as improving public transport services, massive investment in new public transport infrastructure and the promotion of cycling and walking as healthy, non-polluting alternatives. The Executive is also committed to helping local authorities reduce traffic levels and has commissioned work to evaluate and review guidance to local authorities on achieving road traffic reduction.

Consultation comment includes the suggestion to introduce variable tolling arrangements which would favour less polluting vehicles and high occupancy vehicles. There is support for electronic tolling to improve the flow of traffic and reduce congestion. However, one consultee noted that differential peak period pricing could be unfair to long distance traffic.

6.1.4 Discount Schemes

Erskine, Forth and Skye all offer discount schemes where a book of vouchers for travel can be purchased in advance at a discounted price. Selling books of tickets in advance has 2 main advantages for the bridge operator:

• It reduces the need for cash handling at the booths, both for the traveller and for the booth operator. Simply handing over a voucher significantly speeds up the transaction time.
• It reduces the need to handle cash in the office, which saves money in terms of staff time, reduced chances of fraud/theft etc, and banking charges.

However, discount schemes could be considered to offer a "reward" for making a higher number of journeys which runs counter to the Executive's targets on traffic stabilisation and may have an environmental impact.

Tay offers books in advance but without a discount. On 15 July 2004, the TRBJB applied to introduce a 10% discount voucher scheme for those users purchasing 50 vouchers in advance. The Executive has advised TRBJB that decisions on any future changes to tolls will be taken in the light of the Tolled Bridges Review.

6.2 Economic Issues

6.2.1 Economic impacts - Congestion

An important aim of the Review is to look at the congestion impacts of the bridge tolls and assess how these would be affected by changes to the tolls.

Motorists making journeys on congested roads cause delays to other vehicles on that road and the surrounding network. The costs are borne both by the individual motorist and by other road users, in the form of increased journey times and any associated pollution.

Longer journeys with unpredictable delays add to the cost of industry and commerce. As such, congestion is a significant cost to the economy. Although various estimates have been made of the cost of congestion at the UK level these are difficult to value with any degree of accuracy as the impacts are complex and not easily quantified.

In terms of Scotland's toll bridges, there are already congestion problems on the Forth and Tay bridges. Although the Erskine Bridge does not currently suffer from congestion it is part of the Glasgow network, which does have congestion problems. Congestion is not an issue for the Skye Bridge.

The results described here are those from the TMfS work outlined in section 6.1 and the same details given there apply to the descriptions in this section.

The modelling work on the different toll regimes gives us information on the changes to traffic flows on the bridge and to congestion on the roads surrounding the bridge. The results are presented in relative terms, i.e. low-high levels of congestion and to show increases and decreases in those levels as a result of changes to the tolling regime.

As all of the analysis is undertaken for the base year (2002) actual magnitudes of changes in congestion levels are relatively low, particularly at Erskine where there is less congestion in the peak hours. Actual congestion values (in vehicle minutes per km) are not included in the analysis which makes it difficult to gauge the true magnitude of potential congestion problems under each test.

As such, the analysis here provides only a basic picture of congestion problems on and surrounding the toll bridges and how changes in tolls might impact upon congestion. Further analyses could be undertaken to provide a more detailed assessment if required.

6.2.2 Erskine Bridge

The Erskine Bridge currently carries around 26,200 vehicles per day. Traffic levels on the bridge have been increasing steadily in recent years but the bridge still has substantial spare capacity at current levels.

While congestion is not a significant problem on the Erskine Bridge itself, changes to traffic levels on the bridge do impact on the whole of the Glasgow network, in particular in the Clyde Tunnel and the Kingston Bridge. Both of these routes suffer from congestion problems particularly in peak periods, with traffic levels significantly higher than Erskine. Given the closeness of these alternative routes, traffic is relatively sensitive to changes in toll costs. The impact on traffic to these other routes must be considered when examining the results of modelling changes in the tolls.

Removing the tolls from Erskine has a significant impact on the number of vehicles crossing - nearly doubling the total in both directions. This is mostly due to traffic being re-routed away from the Clyde Tunnel. This results in an increase in congestion on the Erskine Bridge, although the bridge has some capacity to cope with this, and a fall in congestion in the tunnel. The impact on the areas surrounding the bridge itself is less significant than that found for the Forth and Tay analyses. In terms of the network as a whole, the impact is mixed with decreases in delays on the north bank of the Clyde but increases elsewhere.

Halving the toll shows very little impact on congestion compared with the current situation, although traffic levels do increase. Increasing the toll to 1 shows traffic levels falling by around a third in both directions. As in the case of removing the tolls, this affects the Clyde Tunnel, with traffic increasing on this route. In terms of congestion we again see the opposite picture, with delays reducing around the bridge area and some increases around the north bank routes and the Clyde Tunnel.

Looking at existing tolls only, modelling for 2006 shows increased congestion on and around the Erskine Bridge. However the increase in journey times is relatively small compared with the increase in traffic levels. This reflects the levels of spare capacity on the bridge.

6.2.3 Forth Road Bridge

Traffic levels on the Forth Road Bridge are currently around 65,800 vehicles per day. The bridge operates at maximum capacity at peak times, and although there is some spare capacity inter-peak this is filling. Traffic levels on the bridge generally increase year on year and the Forth has grown faster over the long term than the other bridges.

High traffic levels on Forth cause significant congestion problems on the bridge itself, particularly in peak periods, and also delays on the roads in the surrounding areas. There are also very significant existing congestion problems in Edinburgh, although the relationship between that congestion and the Bridge is not analysed here.

The Kincardine Bridge provides an alternative route to the Forth Road Bridge, particularly for traffic making longer journeys (the diversion would be significant for traffic travelling from Fife into Edinburgh) and this bridge and the local area also experience congestion and delays.

Modelling the removal of tolls from the Forth leads to increases in traffic levels in both directions, mostly due to traffic switching from using the Kincardine Bridge. This causes further increases in delays on the bridge and extends the length of the peak period. There is a corresponding fall in congestion on the Kincardine Bridge. Modelling halving the toll to 40p for cars shows an increase in traffic of around half that of removing the tolls.

Two different increases in tolls were modelled - to 2 and 5. Both show falls in traffic in both directions, with a much larger effect on northbound traffic. In the case of a 5 toll, northbound traffic falls by over two thirds. This decrease in traffic reduces delays on the bridge and increases congestion on Kincardine and approach roads on the north bank of the Forth, more significantly in both cases for the large increase in toll.

Were current toll levels to remain in place, the expected traffic growth to 2006 is expected to result in higher levels of congestion on the Forth than other bridges. This reflects the lack of spare capacity on this section of the road network. Modelling shows increased journey times over both Forth and Kincardine. The increase in congestion is particularly high for southbound traffic on the Forth.

6.2.4 Tay Road Bridge

Around 23,800 vehicles cross the Tay Bridge per day. Traffic levels on the bridge have steadily increased in recent years, although the bridge still has substantial spare capacity.

Congestion related to the Tay Bridge currently occurs both on the bridge and in surrounding areas at peak times, in particular on the north side of the Tay in Dundee itself.

Removing tolls on the Tay leads to large increases in traffic levels on the bridge, particularly in the southbound direction. As a result the alternative route of Friarton Bridge experiences a reduction in daily traffic levels. This leads to a slight increase in congestion and hence delays around the Tay Bridge area, but some decreases in West Dundee as a result of less traffic approaching the city from using the Friarton Bridge.

As with the other bridges, halving the toll has similar effects to removing the tolls but of much less magnitude.

Two increases in tolls were modelled - to 2 and 4. Both lead to decreases in traffic levels, particularly in the southbound direction. This decrease in traffic means reductions in congestion on the bridge and approach roads and increases in delays in west Dundee as a result of traffic switching to use the Friarton Bridge. The impact on congestion is greater for the larger increase in tolls.

Modelling for 2006, at current toll levels, shows that delays increased on the Tay Bridge and to the west of the city, although Friarton was expected to remain relatively congestion free, despite increased traffic levels.

6.2.3 Skye Bridge

As previously discussed, traffic levels on the Skye Bridge are such that congestion is not a current problem nor is likely to become one in the future. However the presence of the bridge would be expected to have some impacts on the local area. A socio-economic study looking at the impact of the Skye Bridge was carried out for the Scottish Office and published in 2000 ^x. The study found that the opening of the bridge had led to growth in traffic to Skye. The socio-economic impacts of the bridge were found to be modest, although the report acknowledged that the bridge had been operating only a few years and that it may take some time for the effects of the bridge to be fully realised. A 2002 report commissioned by Highland Council found the tolls had considerably reduced the positive impact of the bridge on the local economy. The Scottish Executive had concerns about the methodology used in this report and questioned the robustness of the results.

Although no new research has been carried out for this Review we can draw on previous work to make an assessment of the likely impacts of removing tolls from the bridge. Removing tolls is likely to result in:

• more trips across the bridge by local residents;
• a possible increase in tourism, although this might be offset by a switch from long-stay to short-stay tourism;
• a slight benefit to local businesses through a reduction in travel costs; and
• a slight dis-benefit to the local economy through the loss of jobs at Skye Bridge Limited.

Overall, this assessment suggests that there may be a slight benefit to the Skye economy as a consequence of removing the tolls. This benefit would probably be limited to the local economy and could result in alternative tourist attractions in the Highlands being adversely affected. There is unlikely to be any significant net impact at the Scotland level.

6.3 Accessibility Issues

6.3.1 Rural Access

The Executive is committed to ensuring that people living in rural Scottish communities are not disadvantaged and are able to have access to a wide range of services.

Each of Scotland's four tolled Bridges provides a valuable network link. The importance of the bridges to their users depends on the journey purpose and the availability, frequency, reliability and cost of alternative links between origins and destinations.

Unlike the Skye Bridge, Erskine, Forth and Tay Road Bridges are located in or beside large urban areas ^y where a choice of road and rail alternatives are available. Travellers wishing to cross the Firths of Forth and Tay may do so by car, via the toll-free Kincardine and Friarton Bridges respectively, or by public rail or bus services. Cross-Clyde travellers have a number of nearby toll-free road alternatives as well as public transport options although alternative routes involve travelling through or close to Glasgow City Centre.

Travellers to and from Skye have no rail alternative. While a ferry service allows cars to transfer between Mallaig and Armadale, the return cost is 34.25 ^z and the mainland docking site is approximately 114 miles by road from the mainland end of the Bridge at Kyle of Lochalsh. The ferry crossing also takes longer and is timetable and weather dependent. The only road-based alternative to crossing by car is the half-hourly shuttle bus which runs between Kyle and Kyleakin, operated (and subsidised) by Highland Council, or on foot or by bicycle.

Although a detailed study of tolled bridge users' origins and destinations has not been undertaken, it is apparent that all journeys across Skye Bridge have either a rural origin or destination (or both). While seasonal traffic variations suggest that tourism accounts for a sizeable proportion of Skye Bridge crossings in the high season ^aa, the fact remains that those who live on Skye have more limited transport choices than other tolled bridge users to access services on the mainland.

6.3.2 Access for Disabled Travellers

Exemptions apply on all four bridges to vehicles exempt from Vehicle Excise Duty, which includes vehicles registered to qualifying disabled drivers or their nominees. In addition, Erskine, Forth and Tay Road Bridges offer toll exemptions to vehicles carrying Blue Badge holders. Blue Badge holders are drivers or passengers with severe walking difficulties, severe upper limb disabilities or who are registered blind. As public transport is often not a viable option for people with such disabilities, Mobility Access Committee Scotland (MACS) is strongly in favour of exemptions from bridge tolls for Blue Badge holders and believe the same principle should apply at Skye Bridge.

MACS also reported that claiming the exemption is not always a straightforward matter. For some travellers it is simply a matter of presenting the Blue Badge to the toll collector, but for others who have not pre-registered, it involves completing a form before crossing. This can disrupt the smooth passage of vehicles through the toll booths and prolong the overall journey time for the disabled traveller and other vehicles in his or her wake. MACS informed the Project Team that this sometimes results in people foregoing their exemption rights to avoid causing a delay. Although Forth Road Bridge users can download the relevant form from the FETA website ^bb for pre-completion and can apply for books of exemption vouchers to minimise the transaction process at the toll booths, many Blue Badge travellers are unaware of these options or how to access them.

6.4 Environmental, Economic and Accessibility Issues - Key Points

Environmental Issues

• Tolls can have a positive environmental impact if they decrease the number of vehicle kilometres travelled, divert traffic away from areas of poor air quality, encourage the use of more environmentally-friendly modes of travel or reduce congestion.
• An increase in tolls at Erskine Bridge could exacerbate existing congestion and air quality problems for Glasgow City centre, while a decrease could have the opposite effect.
• Dundee is concerned about its city centre air quality which is linked to peak hour traffic on the Tay Road Bridge. A tolling regime designed to reduce or spread this peak could have a positive effect on air quality and congestion.
• Although there are no specific air quality issues around the Forth Bridge, 12% of morning trips are destined for Edinburgh City centre where an AQMA has been declared. As with Tay, a tolling regime designed to reduce or spread this peak could have a positive effect on the city centre's air quality and the Bridge's congestion.
• There are no air quality issues around Skye Bridge.

Economic Issues

• Congestion has an important economic effect, although this is not easily quantifiable.
• Each of the Bridges has a different relationship to areas of congestion:
• Forth and Tay both experience congestion already.
• Erskine does not experience heavy congestion but has a link to congestion in Glasgow city centre, given its close proximity to other non-tolled crossings
• There are no congestion problems associated with the Skye Bridge.

Accessibility Issues

• Residents of Skye have much less choice of alternative routes or modes of transport than other tolled bridge users
• There is inconsistent operation of toll exemptions for Blue Badge holders in Scotland. The procedures applying to Blue Badge holders can create delays.

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