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SCOTTISH CRIME SURVEY 2003

CHAPTER FOUR: COMPARISON WITH POLICE RECORDED CRIME STATISTICS

The other main measure of crime in Scotland is the number of crimes recorded by the police. Police recorded crime statistics are known to be sensitive to changes in both public reporting practice and police recording practices. This is because not all crimes are reported to the police and, of those that are, not all reported crimes are subsequently recorded by them. This results in a considerable gap between police recorded crime statistics and SCS estimates of crime for those categories of crime that can accurately be compared. There are also limitations to the SCS measures of crime, as detailed in Chapter 1. However, taken together, recorded crime and SCS data can help us present a more accurate picture of the extent and nature of crime in Scotland.

There are six categories of crime which can be directly compared between the SCS and police statistics: vandalism, housebreaking, theft of a motor vehicle, theft of a bicycle, assault and robbery. In the 2003 SCS, these comparable crimes accounted for 68 per cent of all crimes recorded by the survey, the same proportion found in the 2000 SCS. ² Figure 4.1 presents the number of crimes in each category that were estimated by the crime survey to have been: reported and recorded by the police; reported and not recorded by the police; and not reported to the police in Scotland in 2002.

Figure 4.1: Levels of unrecorded and recorded crime

Note:
1. Source: 2003 Scottish Crime Survey and adjusted police recorded crime statistics ³

Victims of crime were asked whether the crime or crimes committed against them were reported to the police, either by them or somebody else: 49 per cent of the comparable crimes in the SCS were reported to the police. By comparing these to the number of police recorded crimes, it can be estimated that 49 per cent of SCS crimes that were reported to the police were actually recorded by the police in their statistics. As a result, it is estimated that only 24 per cent of all comparable crimes (that is reported and non-reported crimes) were actually recorded by the police in 2002.

The proportion of 24 per cent is much lower than the 32 per cent estimated to have been recorded in 1999, and the 36 per cent recorded in 1995 and 1992. ⁴ This drop is largely the result of a decrease in the percentage of incidents of vandalism estimated to have been recorded by the police. In all, it is estimated that only 18 per cent of incidents of vandalism reported to the SCS were formally recorded in the police statistics. The comparable figures for previous years were 26 per cent in 1999, 27 per cent in 1995 and 31 per cent in 1992.

Reporting to the police

Table 4.1 presents the reporting rates for all SCS crimes and for SCS crimes comparable to police recorded crime statistics. The proportion of SCS crimes reported to the police is consistently higher for comparable crimes, which includes many of the most serious crimes covered by the survey. Table 4.1 also shows that there has been a statistically significant fall in the proportion of crimes reported to the police between 1999 and 2002 for both all comparable crimes and all survey crimes.

Table 4.1: Percentage of crimes reported to the police 1992-2002

Note:
1. Source: 2003 Scottish Crime Survey, n=5,041
2000 Scottish Crime Survey, n=5,059
1996 Scottish Crime Survey, n=5,045
1993 Scottish Crime Survey, n=5,030

In terms of all SCS crime, the crimes most likely to be reported to the police in 2002 were theft of a motor vehicle (97%), housebreaking (64%), and theft from a motor vehicle (60%). The least likely crimes to come to the attention of the police were other types of household theft (16%) and theft from the person (28%). Personal crimes were only slightly less likely overall to be reported to the police than household crimes (Figure 4.2).

The overall decrease in crimes reported between 1999 and 2002 is mainly explained by significant reductions in the proportion of incidents of vandalism and assault that were reported. Because of the relatively small number of victims, none of the other decreases between 1999 and 2002 were significant. There was no significant increase in police reporting for any individual type of survey crime over the same time period.

Forty-three per cent of victims reported that the incident of victimisation they had experienced involved stolen or damaged property which was covered by an insurance policy. Of these, 38 per cent had made an insurance claim by the time of the interview.

Figure 4.2: Percentage of crimes reported to the police in 2002

Note:
1. Source: 2003 Scottish Crime Survey
2000 Scottish Crime Survey

Trends in crime: Indexed trends

A key advantage of the way the data is collected and coded for the Scottish Crime Survey is that it can be compared with police recorded crime figures over time. Changes in all comparable crime, vandalism, acquisitive and violent crime between 1992 and 2002 will now be explored in more detail.

All comparable crime

Over the ten year period covered by the SCS, the total number of SCS comparable crimes (whether reported to the police or not) increased by 22 per cent, while the number of SCS crimes reported to the police rose by 7 per cent. Over this same period, the number of comparable police recorded crimes fell by 18 per cent ⁵ (Figure 4.3).

Between 1992 and 1995 police statistics, crime survey crimes and crimes reported to the police all showed a similar decline. Between 1995 and 1999, survey crimes and crimes reported to the police increased modestly while police recorded crimes continued to fall. The trend in SCS crimes reported to the police continued to rise between 1999 and 2002 at a fairly steady rate, although there was a more dramatic increase in survey crimes. During this period, police recorded crime remained steady.

Figure 4.3: Indexed trends in crime 1992-2002: all comparable crimes

Note:
1. Source: 1993, 1996, 2000 and 2003 Scottish Crime Survey and adjusted police recorded crime statistics

Whilst such overall trends are interesting they can often mask subtle differences in crime type, so each of the comparable sub-sets are discussed individually below.

Acquisitive crime

For acquisitive crime (which includes housebreaking, theft of a motor vehicle and bicycle theft), survey trends have been broadly in line with police statistics since 1992, with continuous decreases in each measure at the time of each sweep of the survey (Figure 4.4). Taken together, these data suggest that there was a real drop in acquisitive crimes between 1992 and 2002 as measured by the crime survey and police recorded crime statistics, although there has also been a fall in the proportion of crimes reported to the police over the same period.

Figure 4.4: Indexed trends in acquisitive crime, 1992-2002

Note:
1. Source: 1993, 1996, 2000 and 2003 Scottish Crime Survey and adjusted police recorded crime statistics

Violent crime

Survey estimates of violent crime (which include assault and robbery) fell by 5 per cent between 1992 and 1995, before rising steeply between 1995 and 2002. Police recorded crime statistics followed a broadly similar pattern, although they did not drop between 1992 and 1995 and showed a more shallow rise between 1995 and 2002 (Figure 4.2), perhaps a result of the increase in petty assaults reported in Chapter 3. The number of violent crimes reported to the police shows a somewhat erratic pattern, with a sharp drop of 28 per cent between 1992 and 1995, followed by a steep increase in 1999 and a slight fall in 2002 (Figure 4.5).

Figure 4.5: Indexed trends in violent crime, 1992-2002

Note:
1. Source: 1993, 1996, 2000 and 2003 Scottish Crime Survey and adjusted police recorded crime statistics

Vandalism

Both SCS estimates and police recorded statistics for vandalism remained fairly stable between 1992 and 1999 (Figure 4.6), although the SCS estimated an increase in the number of crimes reported to the police. Between 1999 and 2002, trends in all three sources of data were upward; however, the extent of the increase varied considerably: survey estimates for vandalism displayed a much more dramatic increase than police recorded crime statistics.

Figure 4.6: Indexed trends in vandalism, 1992-2002

Note:
1. Source: 1993, 1996, 2000 and 2003 Scottish Crime Survey and adjusted police recorded crime statistics

Changes in reporting and recording

As the indexed trends reveal, trends in crime reported by the SCS and police recorded crime statistics differed in some important ways. Between 1999 and 2002 SCS comparable crimes increased by 30 per cent whereas comparable police recorded crime decreased by 1 per cent (Table 4.2). SCS comparable crime that was reported to the police rose by 10 per cent. The most significant changes in comparable crime between 1999 and 2002 are due to the substantial increase in the number of incidents of vandalism reported to the SCS, reported to the police and recorded by the police.

Table 4.2: Percentage change in crime 1999-2002

Note:
1. Percentage change for the 'SCS comparable crimes' of acquisitive crime violence and vandalism are based on the rates reported in Appendix Tables A.3.2 and A.3.3. Percentage change for the total SCS comparable crimes and SCS crimes reported to the police are based on grossed-up population estimates.
2. Source: 2000 and 2003 Scottish Crime Surveys and adjusted police recorded crime statistics.

Underlying the trends in both SCS and police recorded crime, and the differences between these trends, are changes in the proportion of crimes being reported to and recorded by the police (Table 4.3).

Vandalism

The SCS estimated that the number of incidents of vandalism increased by 68 per cent between 1999 and 2002 (Table 4.2). However, the proportion of incidents of vandalism that were reported to the police decreased over the same period (Table 4.3). This explains why the percentage increase in the number of SCS incidents of vandalism reported to the police between 1999 and 2002 was only 44 per cent (Table 4.2). Furthermore, the percentage of incidents of vandalism that were reported to the police and recorded by them also decreased over this time (Table 4.3). This explains why the estimated increase in police recorded vandalism, at 18 per cent, was much smaller than the 68 per cent SCS estimate.

Table 4.3: The proportion of crime reported to and recorded by the police: 1999-2002

1. Source: 2000 and 2003 Scottish Crime Surveys and adjusted police recorded crime statistics.

A similar pattern can be seen for both acquisitive crime and violent crime.

Acquisitive crime

Acquisitive crime, as measured by the SCS, showed a 4 per cent decrease between 1999 and 2002 (Table 4.2). Over the same period, there was a decrease in the proportion of these crimes that were reported to the police (Table 4.3), resulting in the estimated number of SCS crimes reported to the police decreasing by an even greater 15 per cent. The decrease in the proportion reported to the police was coupled with a decrease in the proportion of reported SCS crimes being recorded by the police, and therefore explains why the decrease in the recorded acquisitive crime is even greater still at 21 per cent.

Violent crime

For violent crime, the SCS estimated a 17 per cent increase between 1999 and 2002 (Table 4.2). Because the proportion of these which were reported to the police fell over the same time (Table 4.3), the number of crimes reported to the police actually fell by 3 per cent. In contrast, the police recorded an increased proportion of violent crimes which explains the 4 per cent increase in police recorded violence.

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