Scottish Crime Survey 2003

SCOTTISH CRIME SURVEY 2003

CHAPTER THREE: TRENDS OVER TIME

The SCS can measure trends over time by comparing responses to previous sweeps of the survey with responses to the 2003 SCS. This chapter will look at trends over time both between the last two sweeps of the SCS - crime in 1999 and 2002 - and over the span of the SCS from the 1993 sweep.

All crime

The 2003 SCS estimates that just over a million crimes were committed against individuals and households during 2002 (Appendix Table A.3.1). This represents an increase of 30 per cent from the number of crimes estimated for 1999, but only a small increase of 4 per cent over the 10 year period from the 1993 survey (Figure 3.1).

The overall trend has been a steady decline in overall crime up to 1999, and since 1999 an increase, although to a level similar to that of 1992.

Figure 3.1: Trends in crime reported to the SCS, 1992 to 2002

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Note:
1. Source: 2003 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,041
2000 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,059
1996 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,045
1993 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,030
2. Because the composite measure of 'all crime' is a mixture of both personal and household victimisation, it is not possible to conduct statistical analysis of all SCS crime over time.

Trends by offence type

The rise in crime reported to have occurred in 2002 compared to 1999 includes a statistically significant rises in household crime (that is crimes against households, as opposed to crimes against individuals) (Figure 3.2). This is largely the result of a significant increase in vandalism, bicycle theft and other household theft. Figure 3.2 presents the percentage increases in crime rates for which there were significant shifts between 1999 and 2002. There were no other statistically significant changes, although there were a number of differences between the incidence rates for 1999 and 2002. Full details of all changes in incidence rates and the significance of each comparison is presented in Appendix Tables A.3.2 and A.3.3.

Figure 3.2: Significant changes in SCS crimes between 1999 and 2002

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Note:
1. Source: 2003 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,041
2000 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,059
2. Significance is calculated at the 95% significance level.

The trends seen between the 2000 and 2003 sweeps of the survey mask some longer-term underlying trends. The trends for each category between 1992, 1995, 1999 and 2002 will now be examined in more depth.

Property crime

Vehicle-related theft

Although there was no significant change in any of the motor vehicle theft categories (that is theft of a motor vehicle, theft from a motor vehicle and attempted theft of/from a motor vehicle) between 1999 and 2002, each these offences have significantly declined over the 10 year period since 1992: theft of a motor vehicle by 49 per cent, theft from a motor vehicle by 45 per cent and attempted theft of/from a motor vehicle by 54 per cent
(Figure 3.3). On the whole, the majority of this change occurred between 1992 and 1999, but the change has been largely maintained between 1999 and 2002.

Theft of a bicycle, in contrast, rose significantly between 1999 and 2002, but was not significantly different from the rate in 1992 and 1995. The incidence rate for 2002 was 132 incidents per 10,000 households, compared to 127 in 1992, 119 in 1995, and just 82 in 1999 (Appendix Table A.3.2).

Figure 3.3: Changes in vehicle crime between 1992 and 2002

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Housebreaking ¹

Housebreaking has shown a sharp and significant decline over the ten years from 1992 to 2002 falling by 51 per cent (Figure 3.4). The largest decline was between 1992 and 1995, although this trend has continued since then.

Figure 3.4: Changes in housebreaking between 1992 and 2002

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Not all incidents classified as housebreaking result in entry to the home. The proportion of incidents in which the offender actually gained entry to the home was 69 per cent in 1992, but has fallen steadily over time to 62 per cent in 1995, 57 per cent in 1999 and reached its lowest point of 54 per cent in 2002 (Figure 3.5). Thus, although more than half of incidents at each sweep of the SCS did involve someone entering the home, it is encouraging to note that the proportion of successful attempts has declined over time. It is likely that this is in large part due to improvements in home security measures in recent years (MVA, 2002).

Figure 3.5: Trends in attempted and with entry housebreaking 1992 to 2002

chart

Note:
1. Source: 2003 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,041
2000 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,059
1996 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,045
1993 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,030
2. As discussed in Appendix B, the definition of housebreaking reported here differs from previously published reports on the SCS.

Other household theft

The incidence rate of other household theft, that is actual and attempted theft from outside and inside a dwelling not including housebreaking, rose by 81 per cent between 1999 and 2002. Examining the trends in this offence since 1992 it can be seen that the incidence rate for 2002 does not differ substantially from either 1992 or 1995 (Figure 3.6). In this context, it is the sharp decrease in this offence in 1999 that is significantly different from other sweeps.

Figure 3.6: Changes in other household theft between 1992 and 2002

chart

Note:

1. Source: 2003 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,041
2000 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,059
1996 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,045
1993 Scottish Crime Survey, unweighted n=5,030
2. As discussed in Appendix B, the definition of 'other household theft' reported here differs from previously published reports on the SCS.

Vandalism

Vandalism rose sharply between 1999 and 2002 by 68 per cent. Vandalism in 2002 was significantly higher than it has been in any of the previous sweeps of the SCS; due solely to the rise in rates between 1999 and 2002 (Figure 3.7).

Figure 3.7: Changes in vandalism between 1992 and 2002

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Broken down, it can be seen that the rise in the incidence of vandalism is due to a rise in both vandalism against motor vehicles and vandalism against other private property. Between 1999 and 2002 vandalism of motor vehicles rose by 51 per cent and strikingly property vandalism increased by 90 per cent (Figure 3.7).

Because of the sharp rise in the estimate of vandalism between 1999 and 2002, it is worth exploring the nature of this rise in some more detail in an attempt to uncover the reason for this increase. Although there has undoubtedly been a genuine increase, there are a number of additional reasons that might have led to an increase in vandalism between 1999 and 2002. One explanation could be an attitudinal shift in the way that people perceive incidents of vandalism. The heightened political focus on anti-social behaviour and public disorder has undoubtedly raised awareness of the issue of property damage as well as other problematic behaviours. This could potentially result in relatively trivial incidents that previously would not have been reported assuming greater prominence in the minds of householders and being reported as crimes.

There is some evidence to suggest that a greater proportion of trivial incidents of vandalism were reported in the 2003 SCS compared with the 2000 SCS, particularly in the case of property vandalism which showed the greatest increase, although unfortunately details about the precise nature of incidents are not collected in the SCS:

A smaller proportion of vandalism incidents were covered by insurance in 2002 compared to 1999 (50% and 55% respectively).
A much smaller proportion of insured incidents of property vandalism resulted in an insurance claim in 2002 compared to 1999 (23% versus 39%), suggesting that incidents in 2002 were more trivial or resulted in less financial loss than in previous years. There was no significant difference in motor vehicle vandalism incidents that resulted in an insurance claim between 1999 and 2002 (27% and 28% respectively).
When asked about financial loss directly in terms of the cost of repairing the damage, the estimated average cost of vandalism in 2002 was 166, lower than the 184 found in 1999. This is primarily due to a substantial decrease in the cost of property vandalism which fell from 183 in 1999 to just 127 in 2002. There was a slight increase in the cost of motor vehicle damage from 184 to 194 in 2002. This again gives support to the theory that there were a greater number of trivial property offences reported to the 2003 SCS.
Significantly more victims of vandalism reported experiencing practical problems as a result of being victimised in 2002 compared to 1999 (in 2002 54% reported practical problems compared to just 47% in 1999), a rise primarily caused by the increase of practical problems reported by those experiencing motor vehicle vandalism. However, the proportion of incidents of vandalism where the cost of repair was raised as a problem declined from 23 per cent in 1999 to just 4 per cent in 2002.
Although more victims of vandalism reported experiencing some kind of emotional reaction to the incident in 2002 (78% compared to 68% in 1999), the types of emotions experienced differed between the two sweeps. Victims in 1999 reported suffering a greater variety of emotions, and victims in 2002 were more likely to say they felt irritation whereas the proportion experiencing shock, fear and intimidation declined. In both years, the most common emotional reaction was anger (88% in 1999 and 83% in 2002).

Violent crime

Changes in violent crime (robbery and assault) are particularly difficult to accurately measure over time because such offences are relatively rare and the confidence intervals associated with it are typically large (Appendix A.2.2). Violent crime did not change significantly between 1999 and 2002. However, between 1992 and 2002 and 1996 and 2002 there has been a significant increase in violent crime, from an estimated 411 incidents per 10,000 adults in 1992 to 599 in 2002, an increase of 46 per cent.

Assault

Looking at the individual offences that make up violence, we can see that there is a significant increase in assault, which increased by 20 per cent between 1999 and 2002 and by 45 per cent since 1992 (Figure 3.8).

Assault can be broken down into petty assault (actual or attempted assaults resulting in no or negligible injury) and serious assault (incidents of serious wounding, involving severe injuries intentionally inflicted, and other wounding, which involves less serious injury or severe injuries unintentionally inflicted). There has been an interesting pattern in these types of offences over the 4 sweeps of the SCS. In 1992 rates of both types of assault were virtually identical. Since then, however, there has been a significant increase of 125 per cent in petty assault, and a significant decrease of 38 per cent in serious assault. The picture in 2002 showed that there were almost 4 times as many petty assaults as serious assaults and it has been the rise in petty assault that is driving the overall increase in assault and violent crime since 1995 (Figure 3.8).

Figure 3.8: Changes in assault between 1992 and 2002

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Robbery

The incidence of robbery has declined between 1999 and 2002, but again because of the rarity of this offence (there were only an estimated 48 incidents per 10,000 adults in 2002) this decline was not statistically significant. The difficulty in measuring statistically significant differences in violent crime is something the new methodology of the improved Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey will overcome.

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