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MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENTS AND CASUALTIES IN SCOTLAND 1992 - 2002

CHAPTER SEVEN: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

CONCLUSIONS

7.1 Analysis of the number of licensed motorcycles in Scotland showed that there has been a steady increase from 1995. Similarly there has been a steady increase in motorcycle traffic. There has also been a corresponding increase in the numbers of casualties from 1996. However, examination of the number of casualties by the number of licensed motorcycles shows that the casualty rate has been decreasing over the past 11 years (albeit with a small glitch in 1995). This does not mean that one can be complacent since there is still a road safety issue, but it does mean that the worrying increase in motorcycle user casualties is largely due to the increase in the number of motorcycles on Scotland's roads.

7.2 The in-depth examination of STATS19 data shows that the increases are not the same for all types of road, but more likely to be on B and unclassified roads in built-up areas and on A-roads in non built-up areas. Further, it is more likely that they will involve small capacity bikes in built-up areas and larger ones on non built-up roads.

7.3 When looking at the manoeuvres just prior to the accident (from the STATS19 coding), then in built-up areas the motorcyclist is most likely to be going ahead or overtaking, and it is quite likely it is not the rider's fault - i.e. the rider did not precipitate the accident. However, when looking at accidents on non built-up roads then many accidents are happening on bends (left bends more than right) and mainly due to a loss of control by the rider.

7.4 It is more likely that accidents on non built-up roads will occur during the Summer months, in the afternoon and over the weekend, and that the rider will be in the 31 to 45 age group. An analysis of the motorcycle rider postal codes for 2000 to 2002 showed that 4.5% of rider casualties were not from Scotland and for bend accidents 8.7% were not from Scotland. It is likely that these riders were visiting Scotland during the Summer and over weekends, and were not used to the roads. There tend to be fewer accidents on built-up roads at the weekend and there is less seasonal variation than for accidents on non built-up roads.

7.5 Accidents involving a fatality (over 80%) or serious injury (60% of all KSIs) are far more likely to be on non built-up roads, i.e. non built-up roads have a bigger motorcycle accident problem than built-up roads. This is because speeds on non built-up roads are higher and so any accident is likely to be more damaging. However, built-up roads have 56% of all accidents and 54% of all casualties but because they are at lower speeds they are more likely to be slight injury accidents (65%).

7.6 Identifying the 20 most severe clusters for built-up and non built-up roads identified 180 accidents which were then examined via qualitative data sources, i.e. police records. The Police records varied in detail and a qualitative analysis confirmed the in-depth findings in that motorcycle accidents on:

Built-up roads tend to:

• Be the fault of the motorist rather than the motorcyclist.
• Involve a significant number of cars turning right in front of the motorcyclist.
• Involve a significant number of 'loss of control' accidents.
• Involve a significant number of cars 'u-turning' in front of a motorcyclist.
• Involve mainly motorcycles with lower engine capacities (i.e. less than 500cc).
• Typically occur on roads with 30mph speed limits.

Non built-up roads tend to:

• Mostly be the fault of the motorcyclist.
• Result from a 'loss of control' on the part of the motorcyclist.
• Involve 'sports' bikes (over two-thirds of accidents), mostly those with larger engines (i.e. over 500cc).
• Involve very few mopeds and scooters.
• Typically occur on single carriageways with 60mph (national) speed limits.

SUGGESTIONS / RECOMMENDATIONS for CAMPAIGNS

7.7 Targeting particular sectors should help to make campaigns more successful and so addressing known problem areas for certain drivers or riders may be a useful way forward. Analysis of the STATS19 data and the Police records has indicated specific problems, which differ between built-up and non built-up areas. Hence they are considered separately.

7.8 Built-up roads - where the driver of the vehicle other than the motorcycle is seen to be a problem. They do not always expect, see or register that motorcycles may be alongside them when they are stationary or waiting to join (or leave the queue of traffic). This may be due to 'inattention blindness' because of the higher 'work load' when driving in busy built-up traffic situations. Somehow it is necessary to make drivers / pedestrians more aware and to expect bikes. It is unlikely that there are engineering solutions which would help to reduce accidents on built-up roads.

7.9 There is some evidence from studies that countries with a high percentage of two wheeled motor vehicles have lower accident rates than might be expected. This may be because drivers look for them more, i.e. they expect to see motorcycles (and bikes) and react accordingly. Drivers who are (or were) riders also tend to have a much greater awareness of motorcycles.

7.10 Bikes are small, can filter and can accelerate rapidly and are vulnerable. The rider should be aware of the dangers when filtering through and around traffic, they may make progress in congested traffic but are at increased risk. Hence riders must be made more aware of the risks they are taking. Unfortunately, it is often the younger less experienced rider who is using a small capacity machine and is taking these risks. At least they are an identifiable target group.

7.11 Ideas / suggestions that may help to reduce motorcycle accidents:

• Allow motorcycles in bus lanes, but only if supported by a campaign to educate other road users. This is important because there is some anecdotal evidence that bikes are vulnerable in a bus lane because they are not expected / seen by cars crossing or illegally using the bus lanes, i.e. buses are large solid vehicles that can severely damage a car, motorcycles are not.
• Educate drivers to expect bikes. Tell them and show them that bikes can filter, are hard to spot and so they should never do a 'u'-turn without checking and checking again. They should always 'expect the unexpected'.
• Encourage riders to use daylight running lights (some new bikes have no option to switch running lights off). This should increase their conspicuity.
• Encourage riders to wear appropriate and conspicuous clothing (and helmet), but to accept that they are still not going to be seen. There is a school of thought that suggests that wearing conspicuous clothing makes riders think that they must be seen and so they ride as if they are. In practice it is likely that conspicuous clothing helps when the other driver is not suffering from 'inattention blindness' but has relatively little effect when the car driver is not fully attentive.
• Riders should be educated to be defensive in riding style. They should never enter a closing gap, always have an escape route, and not exceed traffic speed by more than 15-20mph when filtering, etc..

7.12 Non built-up roads - the rider is more likely to precipitate the accident situation on non built-up roads. A significant proportion of accidents were associated with cornering where perhaps a lack of advanced control skills resulted in the accident. The rider perhaps did not have sufficient appreciation of their bike's behaviour when cornering and braking. It is possible that some engineering measures, such as increasing the number of bend warnings, maintenance of road edges and removal of 'wash-out' after heavy rain may help reduce some of the bend accidents.

7.13 In particular it is important to get riders to appreciate that basic survival skills in a non-biking situation are completely the opposite of what is appropriate on a bike, i.e. the survival skill when going too fast into a corner is to slow down usually by throttling off or braking. Doing either of these things on a bike will cause it to 'stand-up' and hence most likely to go straight on (bikes have to be leant over to go round corners).

7.14 The bike will go where the rider is looking, hence they should be looking through the corner as far as they can - not at the approaching car, the hedge on the other side of the corner etc. because this is where they will end up.

7.15 The following list comprises actions which would help reduce cornering accidents, most of which are aimed at the rider :

• They should look where they want to go.
• They should enter a corner slowly and gently accelerate through it, especially in wet or slippery conditions, the biking fraternity maxim of 'Slow in faster out', as opposed to 'Fast in s**t out' applies and could perhaps, after suitable modification, be a poster slogan?
• They should maximise their view through the corner and not be distracted by oncoming traffic, hedges and other such objects. Appropriate road positioning will also help.
• They should avoid braking or throttling-off when in a corner and leant over.
• They should take extra training especially if they have not ridden a bike for some time, even advanced riders still can benefit from more training.
• Other vehicle drivers should not cut corners, they are then on the wrong side of the road and create a potential hazard.
• Consider engineering solutions on bends to provide more advanced warning and increased maintenance to ensure the road surface is good.

7.16 Potential audiences and campaigns ² are thus:

• Non-motorcyclists
• Do not cut-corners, you do not know what is coming round the bend.
• Do not do 'u-turns' unless you have checked for motorcycles (at least once).
• Do not pull out of junctions without looking for motorcycles.
• Do not turn right without specifically checking for overtaking motorcycles.
• Motorcyclists
• When filtering, ride defensively; always expect the unexpected action from other vehicles.
• Ride in appropriate and conspicuous clothing with daylight running lights, but don't expect that you have been seen by other road users especially in busy traffic situations.
• Ride slowly in and accelerate gently out of corners.
• Extra training, especially if you are a new rider or returning to biking.

7.17 It is appreciated that none of these ideas are new, the difficulty is always going to be changing the behaviour of a group of people (motorcyclists) who enjoy the dynamic aspects of riding, the freedom of riding, the 'buzz' from riding. Making them more aware of the risks involved may help, and as they become older they are likely to become more risk averse. However, most riders are aware of their vulnerability, and may even be aware that the casualty rate for motorcyclists is about 30 times higher than for car drivers.

7.18 It would be valuable to be able to conduct some further research into the risk acceptance of motorcyclists. It would be very helpful to road safety campaigns if an understanding of the perceived risks and why motorcyclists accept such risks could be determined. This would involve discussion and focus groups together with measures of self-reported behaviours and attitudes as developed by Sexton et al (2004).

7.19 The results from this work suggest that there are two target areas which have the highest potential benefit in reducing motorcycle accidents. The first being if 'other vehicle' drivers took more care in busy traffic situations and the second if riders were more 'defensive' when riding in busy traffic and were more skilled when negotiating bends on non built-up roads.

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