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MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENTS AND CASUALTIES IN SCOTLAND 1992 - 2002
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 This literature review concentrates on recent research which is of relevance to the current project such as investigations into recent motorcycle accident trends and the circumstances surrounding such accidents. The review aimed to identify new information sources and any recent, relevant reports Recent available material from both the UK and abroad has been reviewed.
2.2 It is well established that motorcycles require more skill on the part of the rider to drive safely, especially at speed and around bends, than is required of drivers of four-wheeled vehicles. In addition the motorcycle does not offer much in the way protection for riders involved in a crash. The outer structure of cars provides a survival space for car occupants and protection from collisions which are features not available to motorcyclists. Generally highly effective secondary safety features such as the seatbelt and the airbag in cars are not feasible for use on two-wheeled motor vehicles.
2.3 The current study will concentrate on the statistical analysis of where and how injury crashes occur rather than vehicle safety directly. Currently there is concern about the growing number of motorcycle casualties in Great Britain as a whole, not just in Scotland. Whereas most categories of road casualties are decreasing in frequency such that the latest Department for Transport / Scottish Executive / Welsh Assembly targets for casualty reduction look attainable, numbers of motorcycle casualties are increasing after a period of decline.
Recent research
2.4 Clarke et al (2004) report the initial results of a project for the Department for Transport (DfT) examining motorcyclists' accidents in some depth. Their main method is the in-depth interpretation of the road-accident reports generated by the police describing the circumstances of motorcycle crashes. They state that the quality of this data tended to vary greatly from case-to-case. They did not rely on STATS19 data. Their methodology was to enter all information supplied by the police into a bespoke database system and to "type" accidents as one of a small number of possible explanations for individual crash circumstances. This process was undertaken to provide a basis for identifying homogeneous sets of accidents for qualitative analysis. The TRL principal/contributory factor system developed for use in STATS19 was also used. The database was then used as a store of case studies rather than a source for statistical examination.
2.5 Clarke et al identified that there were two clear peaks in casualty age, in the 21-25 age bands and the 31 to 35 age bands. In addition they state that males are over represented compared with some limited exposure data. Their main (although preliminary) finding is that there are three basic discernable motorcycle crash types:
- Right of way violation accidents (ROWVs): 37.5% of cases;
- Loss of control at bends at speed (Bends): >11% of cases and
- Overtaking/filtering accidents: 15.2% of cases.
2.6 They indicate that road users other than the injured motorcyclists are the cause of the crashes in over half of all accidents and they state that any countermeasures should be targeted equally at motorcyclists and other road users.
2.7 Motorcycle Road Accidents: Great Britain 1998 is available on the DfT web site and was produced by their Road Accident Statistics Branch. This paper summarises where and when two-wheel motor vehicle (TWMV) accidents occur and makes some national and international comparisons. In 1998, the figures for serious and slight casualties had fallen 70% and 60% respectively while fatalities had fallen 50% on the first national road safety target baseline averages (1981-1985). During the intervening period after the base line period to 1998, TWMV traffic had fallen by half which is reflected in the casualty numbers to some extent. Although TWMV traffic constitutes less than 1% of traffic, motorcycle riders and passengers constituted 15% of all Killed and Seriously Injured casualties (KSI).
2.8 Elliot et al (2003) produced a review of motorcycle safety with a view to identifying subject areas most worthy of research. The report was originally produced as an unpublished report in 1999, and was subsequently published in 2003 without any further work being carried out. This was done in order to encourage research into aspects of motorcycle safety by bringing the review into the public arena.
2.9 As in many other research papers on the subject area, this work emphasised that motorcyclists are particularly vulnerable to injury. In 1997 the fatality rate of motorcyclists was 12 per 100 million vehicle kilometres compared to 0.3 for car drivers. This represents a 40 fold increased risk. After decreasing for some time then stabilising, both motorcyclist casualties and mileage began to rise after 1997. The review identified that large engine capacity motorbikes (greater than 500cc) were making up the majority of the stock on the roads compared to 10 years earlier. Casualties were found to be increasing at weekends and in the summer, factors consistent with the increased recreational use of motorbikes.
2.10 Overtaking and speed were identified as significant factors contributing to accidents involving TWMVs, but newly licensed motorcyclists did not make up a large proportion of those injured. The authors stated that several features of motorcycles make them vulnerable; they are capable of very significantly higher speeds and acceleration than cars, they are single-track and therefore less stable. They are vulnerable to changes in road surface and can achieve speeds beyond those at which they can stop comfortably given sight distances. Other factors contributing to motorcyclist vulnerability are their lack of conspicuity and the lack of general protection afforded to the rider.
2.11 The authors state that types and the uses made of TWMV vary greatly, as do the motivations of riders, thus the issue of safety for motorcycling will be much more heterogeneous than issues for cars. For example, there is a tendency for smaller motorcycles and scooters to be used for commuting, whereas larger engined sports bikes are used for travelling longer distances and often on rural roads at higher speeds- the safety issues will be quite different.
2.12 The problems of motorbike safety can be tackled to some extent through vehicle engineering such as anti-lock brakes. Improving road surfaces or providing warning signs where surfaces are poor may have a role in improving motorcycle safety. Elliot et al suggested that training could be improved, since motorcycles are inherently harder to control than cars and little training is currently given in how to handle motorcycle emergencies. In addition current training concentrates on maintaining control of the motorbike which might lead to over-confidence.
2.13 Sexton et al (2004) investigated the relationship between casualty risk and variables such as age, experience and behavioural characteristics obtained through a rider questionnaire. Accident involvement was modelled and factors such as age, experience, training and time of year/weather conditions were found to be significant in explaining accident involvement.
2.14 The authors found no evidence that a previously unidentified risk is causing the trend for increasing incidents. They did not identify a 'returned' or, 'born again', rider effect.
2.15 There was a strong effect of age, with a much higher accident liability for young riders. This effect appeared to be modulated through rider style. Experience, when controlled for age has a weaker effect than has been found for car drivers. Large bike size was found to be associated with increased accidents and very markedly with more serious accident casualties. Riders who ride all year were found to be proportionately more at risk than those who tended to be recreational riders when other factors were controlled.
2.16 Important behavioural factors of riders in accidents (again other factors controlled) were a lack of hazard perception or observation which may equate to a careless, inattentive riding style.
2.17 Ormston et al (2004) carried out a review of the Bikesafe Scotland scheme for the Scottish Executive. The Bikesafe scheme aimed to reduce the numbers and severities of motorcycle rider casualties through offering free on-the-road assessments of riders' skills. The scheme is run by the eight police forces in Scotland together with the British Motorcyclist Federation and the Motorcycle Action Group.
2.18 The review consisted of the analysis of before and after surveys of riders who took part in Bikesafe, telephone interviews with stakeholders and an analysis of STATS19 accident data.
2.19 Their main findings relating to accident and casualty records were that after falling in the early 1990s, the number of motorcycle casualties increased after 1997. The numbers of injured riders over 30 years-old was increasing markedly. More than half the motorcycle casualties occurred on built-up roads, but the numbers of casualties on non built-up roads was increasing and these tend to produce a worse severity of casualty.
2.20 They indicated that uptake of the scheme by vulnerable riders seemed to be good. Participants on the Bikesafe scheme found the process useful although there was an indication that the assessment ride was considered to be too short in duration and that a lack of resources meant that advertising the scheme adequately was difficult. The vast majority of the riders felt that the scheme had helped them to ride more defensively.
2.21 The riders reported that in built-up areas they would obey the speed limits on roads, but this tended not to be the case on non built-up roads. From analysis of the follow-up surveys, there was an indication that there was a greater tendency of riders to speed after taking part in the Bikesafe scheme.
2.22 The authors suggested that the scheme or a successor would benefit from greater emphasis on changing attitudes to speeding amongst participants. Greater promotion of the benefits to riders of taking part in further training and better advertising of the scheme itself would also be beneficial.
2.23 Stefan et al (2003) reviewed patterns of motorcycle accidents throughout Europe for the period 1991 to 2001 using the CARE 1-Database. The CARE-Database consists of national accident data supplied by 14 European countries. The data supplied by the various countries was incomplete in many cases especially in the latter years. Generally, it was found that motorcycle accidents are decreasing, especially those involving younger casualties, throughout Europe with the exceptions of Greece and Portugal. The UK was identified as having a consistently growing share of motorcycle fatalities which warranted investigation.
Campaigns
2.24 Within Britain various motorcycle safety campaigns have been introduced from time to time. For example, the BMF (British Motorcyclists Federation) actively encourages a responsible attitude and encourages rider development courses.
2.25 In addition to the Scottish Bikesafe scheme previously outlined. The UK Department for Transport has an ongoing 'THINK! - watch for motorcyclists' campaign. This is to encourage other road users to be more aware of motorcycles particularly in urban situations. The campaign also targets riders in urban situations and specifically sports bike riders, asking them if they are 'Up to scratch'. The campaign has video material which shows the 'Perfect day' where a rider is warned about every hazard before it appears, thus encouraging riders to be more aware and to look properly. As far as it is known, there has been no systematic evaluation of the effectiveness of these ideas.
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