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Container Transhipment and Demand for Container Terminal Capacity in Scotland

2. Containerport Demand in Northern Europe

2.1 Data sources

Multiple established data sources have been used to obtain, compare and further analyse current traffic volumes and forecast flows. The main data sources employed are:

• 'Containerisation in North Europe to 2015' (2002), Ocean Shipping Consultants Limited
• 'World Containerport Outlook to 2015' (2003), Ocean Shipping Consultants Limited
• 'Annual Review of Global Container Terminal Operators' (July 2003), Drewry Shipping Consultants Limited
• 'The Drewry Container Market Quarterly' (June 2003), Drewry Shipping Consultants Limited

A key aim of this analysis is to consider the three areas of the container transport market that would comprise 'the market' for both proposed Scottish hub terminals. These areas are:

• Direct traffic volumes, that is containers moving directly via the major north European container ports, and primarily deep-sea traffic;
• Transhipment traffic, that is the volume of containers moving via the major north European container ports, but transhipped for other regional markets throughout northern Europe; and,
• Short-sea traffic, that is intra-European containers moving within Europe.

2.2 North European containerport markets

The north European containerport market can be broken down into the five sectors shown in Table 2.1. The north continent accounted for the major share in 2002, 65% (22.1 m teu), followed by UK/Ireland with 22.8% (7.7 m teu). The remaining markets were Scandinavia with 8.7% (2.9 m teu) and East/South Baltic ports with 3.6% (1.2 m teu).

Table 2.1: North European container throughput by port region, 1990-2002

* Preliminary

The total north European containerport market, as shown in Figure 2.1, has virtually doubled in size over the 1992-2002 period, from 17.3 m teu to almost 34.0 m teu. Growth has occurred in every year over the period, with an average growth rate of 7.0%.

The North Continent has been further split into West and East sectors. The West sector includes French and Benelux ports (i.e. the major ports of Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Le Havre, plus other smaller facilities in the range). The East sector primarily comprises the major German seaports of Hamburg and Bremerhaven.

The analysis demonstrates that North Continent West has lost market share to the East ports. Whereas in 1992 West ports accounted for 43.5% and East ports 20.7%, by 2002 the West port share had fallen to 40.3% and the East share had risen to 24.6%. This has mainly been as a result of the movement of a greater proportion of transhipment traffic for Baltic/Scandinavian markets through German seaports.

UK seaport share has also declined over the period, from almost 25.0% in 1992 to 22.8% in 2002. The more recent erosion in the UK share reflects the loss of transhipment business from Felixstowe to Continental ports as a result of severe congestion at the former.

Also particularly noteworthy is the almost fourfold rise in E/S Baltic traffic from 330,000 teu in 1992 to 1.2 m teu in 2002, doubling its share from just 1.9% to 3.6%. This has mainly been due to soaring throughput at the Russian port of St. Petersburg, which generated more than fivefold growth between 1995-2001, and further double-digit growth in 2002.

2.3 Global containerport markets

Table 2.2 and Figure 2.2 places North Europe in the context of the global container port market and its recent development. North Europe (similar to North America) has seen a reduction in market share relative to Asian ports in particular. In 2002 North Europe accounted for 12.7% of global containerport activity, compared with 14.7% in 1996.

Table 2.2: Estimated global containerport activity by region, 1996-2002
('000 teu port handling moves, including empties and transhipment)

Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd
* preliminary

Nevertheless, over the 1996-2002 period containerport traffic in North Europe increased by around 50%, from 23.1 m teu to 34.5 m teu. Indeed, all regional world markets expanded over the period, with global containerport volumes rising from 157.8 m teu in 1996 to 272.8 m teu in 2002.

Table 2.3: Estimated annual container growth by region
(Change in total port handling)

Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd

Table 2.3 further analyses these trends in terms of annual regional growth. Over the 1996-2002 period the fastest growing regions were Far East with an average annual growth of 11.5%, closely followed by the Mid-East and South Europe, both with 11.1%. All regional markets demonstrated growth well above world GDP over the period. In North Europe the average annual growth rate was 6.9%. For all markets, 2001 represented something of a downturn but the market has remained stable since then.

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