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SCOTLAND'S SOCIAL CARE LABOUR MARKET
SUMMARY

1 A Growing Sector

1.1 This section looks at national trends in employment and its composition.

1.2 The Labour Force Survey (LFS) social work activities category covers the broad definition of the social care sector including private, voluntary and public employment. ² It estimates the total size of the workforce in 2003 to be 118,000. Other sources used in this report may cover different boundaries of the sector or only certain parts of the sector but this is made clear when this is the case.

1.3 Figure 1.1 shows that employment in social work activities has been growing significantly over the last nine years. Numbers have expanded from 96,000 in 1994 to 118,000 in 2003 which represents a 23% increase over this period. The trend in the growing size of the workforce is clear. ³ The increase in employment of 23% between 1994 and 2003 in social work activities compares to an average of 11% for all industries in Scotland.

1.4 Independent sector employment (private and voluntary combined) has now overtaken the public sector level in the social work activities sector. Employment in the independent sector has grown from 37,000 in 1994 to 65,000 in 2003 which represents a 76% increase. This compares to an average independent sector employment growth rate of 11% over the same time period across all sectors in Scotland. Significantly, the independent sector now accounts for more than 50% of employment in social work activities although this is less than the Scotland all industry average of 73%.

1.5 The public sector component of social work activities (53,000) accounts for 8% of total direct public sector employment in Scotland identified through the LFS. It is clear when the public sector trend is placed in the context of the full nine-year period, that the independent sector has been the main source of employment growth. Local authority census employment figures, however, in section 2, below, indicate that this component has also expanded since 1999.

1.6 Both female and male employment levels in social work activities have been increasing since 1994. Male employment now stands at 24,000 which represents 20% of the social work activities workforce of 118,000. This is an increase from 12,000 (12.5% of 96,000) in 1994 which shows a significant shift in the traditional composition of the sector.

1.7 Trends suggest that qualification levels of the workforce are growing. There have been upward trends in both the number of employees that have been educated to degree level and the number of employees that have completed some form of further education. Those with a degree or equivalent represent 17% of the workforce, and those who have been educated at further education level represent a further 22%, of the 118,000 total of employees. The number of employees without any qualification (including Standard Grades, Highers, and other qualifications) has fallen over this period to 12%. The overall qualification composition of the sector is fairly in line with that of the national workforce. Assessing the impact of forthcoming Scottish Social Services Council (SSSC) registration requirements, however, increases the need for workforce planning with regard to qualifications of staff.

1.8 There has been a substantial rise in the numbers of employees who work full time who now represent 64% of the 118,000 employees. This indicates that jobs in the sector are increasingly being taken up on a full-time basis.

1.9 Between 1994 and 2003 the percentage of employees with permanent contracts was at its highest - 85%. In comparison, the percentage of employees in all industries with a permanent contract varied between the range of 91% and 94% over the same period.

1.10 The average length of time that employees reported to be continuously employed by the same employer in this sector was 80 months (6 years and 8 months) which compares to an all-industry average of 100 months (8 years and 4 months). This could be explained by a range of possible labour market factors. Social care employment could demonstrate a higher rate of staff turnover, which would reduce the average length of job tenure compared to the all industry average. Alternatively, it could reflect the higher rate of employment growth that the sector has experienced over the last nine years - a higher number of new employees entering the sector would bring down the average length of tenure in the sector. It is estimated that this explanation accounts for around half of the difference in tenure since 2000.

2 Local Authority Employment Trends

2.1 The following section examines local authority social work services staffing census data. Analysis is at a national level but staffing levels and vacancy ratios vary between local authorities.

2.2 Local authorities employed 39,429 whole-time equivalent employees in 2003. ⁴ The main drawback of this source is that the number of staff employed indirectly through outsourcing is not reflected in these figures which may be part of the explanation behind the dip in staff between 1996 and 1999 evident in Figure 2.1. There have been rising whole time equivalent staff levels however, since 1999.

2.3 Vacancy figures are available from 2000 which is pictured as the gap between actual staffing levels and numbers of posts in Figure 2.2. The 7.63% vacancy rate in 2003 for social work services staff can be compared to the national average across industries of 3.1%. ⁵ From Figure 2.2 it is evident, however, that employment levels have been expanding in local authorities but staffing demand has been growing faster than supply which has been reflected by sustained vacancy rates.

FIGURE 2.3 Local authority social work services WTE posts, posts filled and vacancies

: Scottish Executive annual local authority social work services staffing census

2.4 Vacancies in a background of sector growth and rapid finance expansion is therefore likely to be explained by fast paced increases in public sector demand as opposed to a shortage of labour supply. This point is evidenced by the fact that vacancies rose in 2003 from 2,861 to 3,007 despite the fact that in 2003 the number of posts filled rose above the level of total posts in 2002 (see Figure 2.3 above).

Social Workers

2.5 As a part of the wider local authority social work services staff, social workers represent around 10.4% of current staff, and are strongly identified as a highly skilled and crucial segment of the workforce. Local authority data on numbers of social workers employed are available from 1971 and is found in Figure 2.4. Growth in numbers of social workers has been strong from 780 in 1970 to 4196 in 1994 after which there was a sharp dip associated with wider public sector contraction at that time. Comparable data are not available in the period 1995-99, however, data over the last few years shows significant growth in the numbers of social workers. In 2003 there were 4511 social workers (4102 WTE) reported to be employed through the annual census and the latest data from the June 2004 monthly return indicate that the figure now stands at 4325 WTE, which is higher than ever before.

2.6 Vacancy information is available from 2000 and this is included in Figure 2.5 to show trends in total posts and posts filled. As with the wider social services staff group discussed above, the data show that although social worker staffing levels have been increasing, that numbers of posts have also grown resulting in a persistent gap of vacancies. The vacancy rate however, in June 2004, fell for the first time since these data were collected in 2000.

FIGURE 2.6 Local authority social worker posts, posts filled and vacancies

3 Local Authority Expenditure and Outsourcing

3.1 Local authority staffing growth discussed in section 2 is reflected through increases in local authority expenditure in social work departments. The employment growth however, in the independent sector discussed in section 1, may also be fuelled to some extent by outsourcing from the public sector, i.e. public sector finance for private sector service provision.

3.2 Total local authority social work net current expenditure is plotted in Figure 3.1, which has increased from 1.069 billion in 1996-97 to 1.611 billion in 2002-03. All gross third-party payments, which can be taken as a measure for the degree of outsourcing, represented 46% of total Local Authority Social Work Service department gross expenditure in the financial year 2002-03. ⁶

3.3 A breakdown of gross current expenditure show that there were increases of 176 million in payments to private persons and companies and of 95 million to voluntary bodies over the four-year period 1998-2002. Respectively, this represents 70% and 63% increases to both groups over the four years.

4 Staff Turnover

4.1 Vacancy rates can inform on the mismatch between labour supply and labour demand. However, this is not an informative indicator for analysing recruitment and retention. Data on recruitment and retention are not well developed making it difficult to assess. However, this section discusses the data that are available for some parts of the sector.

4.2 For quantitative evidence on turnover, local authority data on social workers are available for 1999. This shows that 115 senior social work staff and 303 main grade social workers left local authority social work departments in 1999 (representing 6% and 8% of respective staff numbers). Over the same period however, 52 (3%) senior social work staff and 433 (11%) main grade social workers joined local authority social work departments resulting in a net increase of total social workers employed. As the trend in social worker staffing levels has continued to increase, this would indicate again that the main issue lies in the timely supply of social workers to meet projected demand.

4.3 Data are available on recruitment and retention indicators for another sub-sector of social care. The Pre-School and Childcare Workforce Survey (Scottish Executive) covers the public, private and voluntary sectors. The latest available data from 2003 are based on 26,700 posts. Between September 2002 and September 2003, 6,500 were recruited (24%) and 4,400 (17.9%) left. These percentage figures are higher than is found for social workers indicating higher churn rates in the pre-school and childcare workforce.

4.4 Vacancies stood at 1,100 (4.2% of posts) at the end of this period. This is compared in the publication to an average vacancy rate for the whole economy of 3% and 5% for health and social care employers.

4.5 Neither vacancy figures nor turnover rates give a full understanding of churn and exit in the sector. Loss of staff and high vacancy rates within a particular organisation will be problematic in that context. However, it is vital to distinguish whether the employees are primarily moving to other jobs within the expanding sector, or whether they have completely exited the sector. An expanding sector can provide increased opportunities for staff within the sector which may lead to increased turnover. The evidence suggests that, as employment levels in the overall sector have been increasing, one of the causes of vacancy rates and churn in the sector is likely therefore to be caused by the overall pool of staff not increasing instantaneously with labour demand.

4.6 It is difficult to assess, however, the degree of churn within the sector, the reasons for this, and what the optimal churn rate is, i.e. the question on whether people leave the sector or simply move cannot be answered. Further evidence may also be needed on attrition rates of those who have qualified into the sector and their labour market patterns in order to plan more effectively at a national level.

4.7 Care Commission pre-inspection return (PIR) anonymised data includes fields on whether exit interviews took place when a member of staff departed and also reasons for leaving. Of the 15,577 staff that are recorded as leaving during the inspection period examined, 5126 (32.9%) were indicated to have had an exit interview, 4816 did not, and 5635 had missing responses. A table of reasons for leaving is included in Figure 4.1. As this was on open-ended question within the PIR, the answers given had to be coded during data collection. It shows that at least 11% of leavers left for another job in social care, compared to 2.4% outwith the sector. A further 19.6% however, left for another job, the details of which were unspecified and 2.8% left for higher pay. 4.2% left for retirement, 6.15% to become a student and 4.55% were dismissed. 15% of leavers were indicated as leaving for family reasons, which included maternity leave, those leaving to look after family members, and also those leaving if the family was moving to another area. 22.63% left for other reasons that were not picked up by these categories and 11.47% had recorded no response. These figures should be treated with caution as the sample is not random and due to the open-ended nature of the question, not all responses could be categorised.

FIGURE 4.1 Reasons for leaving

4.8 Qualitative research can help explain the factors that may lie behind retention difficulties where and when they exist. Research is available surrounding the retention of social workers through a report commissioned by the SSSC and conducted by the Social Worker Research Centre at Stirling University. The survey used is based on a sample size of 338 social workers and covers three local authorities and one voluntary organisation. A list of different reasons were surveyed, however, and the factors that came out most significant are summarised below:

• Between 40-50% of those surveyed indicated that commitment to clients, job satisfaction and relations with colleagues are factors that encourage them to stay in the job.
• Between 40-50% of those surveyed indicated that inadequate resources and stress were factors that discouraged them from staying.

5 Workforce Age Profile

5.1 Workforce age profile has two main roles in workforce planning. It can help to estimate forthcoming replacement demand that will be caused by retirement and it can also help to identify career patterns in social care and how these may vary between different types of job in the sector.

5.2 It is natural to expect an ageing workforce as this is concurrent with the general trend of an ageing population. Historic public sector hiring patterns, for example substantial expansion in earlier decades, however, may have implications for future workforce age composition and how it develops.

5.3 Anonymised data from the pre-inspection returns (PIRs) are used in this summary report as it gives a breakdown of age for the social care and early education and childcare workforce that is regulated by the Care Commission and had been inspected up until April 2004. Scottish Executive census information on teachers and social workers are used as comparators for age structure as well as average all sector information from the labour force survey.

5.4 PIR data indicate that around 28,507 (53%) of the sample social care workforce is over the age of 40. The Early Education and Childcare component (EE&C) is evidently generally younger overall.

5.5 Local authority data are included in figure 5.1 to assess whether social workers, as a professional group, may be older than the wider social care workforce and in comparison to the teacher workforce. These data do not, however, cover the age profile of social workers in the private and voluntary sectors. 504 (12.2% of 4139) social workers in local authorities are over the age of 55, of which 102 (2.5%) are over the age of 60. In terms of absolute numbers, the size of potential replacement demand for the workforce is smaller than that for teachers where 7804 (14.7%) are over the age of 55.

5.6 However, the group with the highest percentage of workforce that is over 55 and over 60 is that of social care, not including early education and childcare. Of the sample, 5,912 (17.1%) employees are over the age of 55. It should be noted, however, that this may just be due to specific career patterns for that particular sub-sector. Employees that enter this sector may do so at a later stage in their work-life. Additionally, non-professional staff may be easier to replace than qualified teachers or social workers.

5.7 Figure 5.2 gives a profile of the percentage of staff that fall under each age as opposed to absolute numbers so that comparisons can be made directly on age profile shape between social workers, teachers, PIR social care workforce and the wider Scottish workforce. It is clear that entry into the social worker and teacher professions starts later and there does not seem to be the same apparent dip during child-bearing years that is evident in the wider social care workforce and specifically for early education and childcare workforce. The dip in the profile between the mid 20s into the 30s is likely to be explained by exit from the sector in a predominately (94%) female sector to care for their own children.

FIGURE 5.1

5.8 From the whole social care staff sample of 52,722 there are 7,117 staff who are reported to be between the ages of 55 and 65 which represents 13.5% of the total and who are most likely to exit from the sector over the next five years. However age profiles need to be monitored over time in order to assess changes in the age structure and the implied exit trends and recruitment bulge effects.

5.9 Estimates of replacement demand are evidently more complicated than looking at those nearing retirement within the social care sector. There seems to be a quite significant dip in numbers within child-bearing years for the wider social care and early education and childcare sectors but not the professions. Also, there is no sudden dip at the actual retirement age of 60/65; rather exit from the sector takes place gradually, with numbers of the workforce represented at each age falling steadily through the 40s, 50s and 60s. This reflects general patterns across all sectors in economic activity rates and employment rates.

6 Private and Voluntary Sectors

6.1 The following section gives an analysis of the independent sector. Pre-inspection returns provide a source of anonymised data on the social care workforce regulated by the Care Commission covering local authority, private and voluntary sector organisations inspected up until April 2004. ⁷ Although this is a very comprehensive dataset, covering approximately 5,868 organisational units and 70,906 staff, it should be noted that not all pre-inspection returns were fully covered in the sample of PIR's inputted and so this will not represent all staff in the sector. These data can, however, be used to give a new source of the profile of employment in the private and voluntary sectors although not all local authority employment is covered by its remit. Some fields of information in the collection will also carry a lower sample size due to inconsistency in the extent that all data fields were completed in the pre-inspection returns. Percentage figures are therefore likely to be more authoritative than actual numbers.

FIGURE 6.1 Total Employment and Number of Units Inspected by Type of Service

6.2 Dissecting the data on staffing into type of service, the highest percentage of employees in the sample fall into Care Homes for Adults (50%) and Early Education and Childcare (34%). Comparing this to the number of organisational units however, Early Education and Childcare has the most (63.6%) followed by Care Homes for Adults (23.4%). This demonstrates that the average number of employees in each organisational unit for Early Education and Childcare is much smaller (6.46) compared to the average number of employees in each Care Home for Adults (25.69). The average number of employees throughout all types of services is 12.2 which indicates that the organisational units that the Care Commission inspects can be mostly categorised as Tiny (1-10) or Small (11-49). ⁸ This may have implications for training capacity as smaller organisations are unlikely to have the same specialist in-house resources unless they are part of larger umbrella organisations.

FIGURE 6.2 Total Employment and Number of Units Inspected by Sector

6.3 When analysing the dataset by sector, 44.5% of employees were recorded under private, 19.1% under voluntary and 27.7% under local authority. Local authority employment was, however, not fully captured by this dataset as fieldwork staff are not regulated by the Care Commission and therefore local authority annual census statistics in section 2 give a more comprehensive coverage. Appendix (iii) includes maps that help display how greatly the composition of service provision varies across local authorities. For example, the proportion of social care employment regulated by the Care Commission that falls in the private sector varies from 5.1% in the Shetland Islands to 61.69% in Dumfries and Galloway. The highest percentage employment in the voluntary sector is found in the Shetland Islands (46.85%) and the lowest in the Orkney Islands (1.06%). The local authority components of the data set represented 10.82% in East Dunbartonshire, and 91% in Orkney. See Appendix (iii) for a breakdown of this information by local authority.

6.4 The age composition of the sample of staff available in the private and voluntary and public sectors is compared in figure 6.3. It is evident that the age profile for the private sector follows a different pattern than that for the voluntary sector and public sector. The private sector sees a dip in numbers in the mid-20s that may be explained by employees leaving employment to care for children or moving to employment in other sectors. The voluntary sector, however, does not seem to show the same trend. The data do seem to give evidence to suggest that younger employees are more likely to enter the private sector than the voluntary or public sectors.

7 Demographic Trends; Implications for Labour Supply and Labour Demand

7.1 Demographic change will have implications for workforce and service delivery challenges within the public sector. The ageing population, however, will not have a "time-bomb" effect at a national level but will rather be gradual and will depend on how demographic projections materialise. The following section provides a brief discussion of the demographic impact of an ageing population on service and workforce demand. The composition of future labour supply is also considered. In the short run it is concluded, however, that policy "development impacts" are likely to have a more intense impact on the labour market and may counteract the projected impacts of demographic change specifically in relation to labour demand.

Labour Demand

7.2 Demographic change has varying potential impacts on different sub-sectors within the social care labour market. The following analysis looks at the implications for labour demand in children's services and home care for the elderly assuming that all other impacts on the number of service users and labour demand remain constant.

7.3 The numbers of children is forecast to drop by 73,000 (7.6%) by 2007 and 190,000 (20%) by 2027. While current pressures in children's services should therefore naturally decline, increased early intervention and the actual proportion of children identified as requiring additional services, will have an impact on this.

7.4 In 2002-03 there were 11,388 looked after children in Scotland, representing a 1.06% service user ratio of the 0-17 year-old population. Figure 7.2 looks at the trend in the service user ratio since the 1970s. Over this time span there has been a general downward trend from the peak of 1.3% in 1974. In the last two years, however, the ratio has slightly increased. ⁹

7.5 Assuming all other factors remain unchanged so that this ratio remains stable at 1.06%, demographic projections would imply a projected fall in service users of 2268 by 2027. This would also have implication for staffing demand. In 2002 there were 6550 (5708 WTE + 842 vacancies) children's social care staff posts within local authorities representing an overall average staff ratio of 0.58 per looked after child. This ratio has, however, increased from 0.48 in 2001.

7.6 Demographic trends should therefore, all else being equal, help ease labour market pressures in local authority children's services over the long term. However, changes in the service user ratio or staff ratio increases may counteract this. Specifically, changes in policy are likely to have a greater impact in the short run on the labour market than demographic change as demonstrated in the rising numbers of staff in Children's services departments despite the population trend of falling numbers of children.

7.7 There are a number of other reasons why workforce numbers may not actually decrease. Economies of scale and minimum staffing requirements may mean that falls in employee numbers do not have a fixed linear relationship to falls in numbers of service users. Fundamentally, the proxy of numbers of looked after children as an output measure does not reflect the work of Children's Social Work Services. Increased preventative work may actually decrease numbers of looked after children, but require increased staffing levels to achieve.

7.8 Clearly there are a number of factors affecting the implications of demographic projections on the labour market. Divergent demographic trends of socio-economic groups may have an effect on workloads of social work departments as demand will be affected if there is a higher rate of fertility amongst more vulnerable groups. Regional differences in both service user rates and demographic trends are also potentially informative for planning at a local level.

7.9 Demographic trends will impact numbers of service users in different age categories. The base population of 364,000 over 75s for instance is projected to increase to 585,000 by 2027. As an example, the impact of this is discussed in relation to home care services provided and purchased by local authorities. The number of home care clients over the age of 75 stood at 43,615 in 2002. This represents a service user ratio of 11.98% of the base population. The implied impact therefore is an increase of 26,480 service users of home care by 2027 if all other impacts remain constant.

7.10 Again, the assumed service user ratio may be changing over time and service delivery/policy changes will also affect this along with health and morbidity levels amongst the elderly. The staff to service user ratio is dependent on the labour intensity of services needed which may be lower than that in respect to children's services departments. ¹⁰

Labour Supply

7.11 The number of people in the working-age population in Scotland is forecast to dip by 14,000 (0.4%) by 2007, and 265,000 (8.4%) by 2027. In 2006, the working-age population starts to dip below 2002 levels and has decreased by 1% by 2019. The size of the labour force is, however, also dependent on other factors such as the labour force economic activity rate. ¹¹ In Scotland this currently stands at 78.8% which is the average UK rate. ¹² Economic activity rates, however, vary depending on age and the rates for those near to and over the retirement age are lower than the average. Older age groups are likely to have lower activity rates, but the activity rates of this group and those past retirement age may be increasing over time. With an ageing of the labour supply stock, unless the labour force participation rate, specifically for those near and beyond retirement age, was to increase, then we would expect an overall fall in the labour supply and in the number of people available to be employed in the sector.

7.12 The following table gives the current economic activity rates, and employment rates for all industries in Scotland for different age bands. Economic activity rates peak in the age group 35-49 but then start to fall. The economic activity rate of those over the age of retirement has increased from 6.1% in Dec-Feb 2000.

FIGURE 7.4

: LFS Dec-Feb 2004

7.13 Although the size of the labour force is dependent on participation rates and retirement trends, the rate of employment expansion in the social care sector is limited by the available demographically determined labour force pool and public finance resources. The falling ratio of working-age population to the over 75s adds greater pressure for future service user expansion to be met by productivity increases and service delivery initiatives as opposed to the expansion of the workforce.

8 Conclusions

8.1 Social care has seen significant expansion in terms of employment, together with increased local authority expenditure in the sector. Trends suggest that this increased finance may also be the driver behind significant independent sector growth as the percentage of expenditure spent on outsourcing by local authorities has increased. The role of public sector finance in independent sector growth is likely to have implications for monitoring and steering the sector from a national and regional level. It is clear that patterns of service delivery through the public, private and voluntary sectors are not uniform and vary greatly between regions. National trends however identify a proportional shift in the average composition of employment in the sector towards the private and voluntary sectors.

8.2 The rate of finance growth experienced over the last few years may not be sustained and there may be pressures to meet increases in future service demand if labour markets remain tight.

8.3 The role of policy decisions, and new legislation is identified as a key driver in determining labour demand. Within local authorities the data available suggest that labour demand has been rising faster than supply, helping to explain current vacancy rates. This may also be the case for the private and voluntary sectors although time series data are not currently available to assess this or to identify flows of staff between the public, private and voluntary sectors.

8.4 Vacancies seem to be rooted in rapid expansion in the whole sector but it is not possible to identify the degree of churn (employees moving between jobs but staying in the sector) and separating this from complete exit from the sector. It is clear, however, that "shortages" are linked to public sector demand issues, not just labour supply. The rate of growth of service provision and finance in the sector seem to be the main factors that underlie current labour market disequilibria. Employment levels in the whole sector have been increasing but with a time-lag effect. This would indicate that retention may not be a problem for the sector as a whole as there is no dip in overall sector employment levels. At a regional or organisational level, recruitment and retention will be an issue as loss of staff will affect service provision within that context, even if the staff member moves to another job within the sector.

8.5 In the long-run it is anticipated that labour market expansion pressures will shift to older client services as the underlying demographic trends in Scotland are characterised by an ageing population. This, however, is likely to be a gradual process over time. In the short-run, other changes within the sector that often stem from changing statutory requirements, or other policy factors that affect service intensity, are likely to have a more dramatic impact on the labour market. Additionally, societal changes such as drug use, and poverty levels are feeding into social care labour demand but it is difficult to assess the extent of this affect or how fast the changes are.

8.6 The latest local authority data suggest that the growth in the gap between numbers of posts and numbers of posts filled is starting to ease, however, if further policy "development impacts" hit the sector then demand and supply may not realign in the near future. Forthcoming changes within the sector that are likely to impact the labour market include qualification and registration requirements, anti-social behaviour legislation, the mental health act, and the social work review. The ability of labour supply to react to the changes in composition and extent of demand will not be instantaneous and a forward-looking approach to workforce planning is required at a national, regional and organisational level.

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