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SCOTLAND'S SOCIAL CARE LABOUR MARKET

SECTION 1 A GROWING SECTOR

12. The social care labour market involves a range of agents including employees, employers, trade unions, government and its associated agencies. A view of the aggregate sector can help to reveal general trends and shifts in the market as a whole which will be rooted in changing preferences and interactions at the individual and organisational level. This section looks at aggregate trends in employment and the sector composition of the workforce.

13. The total number of staff in the social care sector that sources used in this report state depend on the various definitional boundaries of the sector that they cover. Labour Force Survey (LFS) data is used in the following section however as it provides an indication of the trends in overall workforce numbers under the broad definition of the social care sector including private, voluntary and public employment. The data is also useful as it allows for consistent comparison with other sectors in Scotland and the UK through the same source.

14. Figure 1.1 shows that employment in the SIC Code 85.3 social work activities has been growing significantly over the last nine years. ⁴ Numbers have expanded from 96,000 in 1994 to 118,000 in 2003 which represents a 23% increase over this period. Survey based estimates are subject to margins of error such that relatively small fluctuations during this time period cannot be interpreted; however, the trend in the growing size of the workforce is clear. ⁵ The increase of 23% between 1994 and 2003 in social work activities compares to an average of 11% for all industries in Scotland.

Figure 1.1
Social Work Activities Employment and Independent/Public sector trend breakdown

Source: 85.3 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) group 85.3 -Social work activities, Labour force survey 2003

15. Figure 1.2 shows that the proportion of employees in social work activities compared to the rest of the Scottish workforce has also been growing. This provides evidence of the increasing importance of the sector to the economy in terms of employment; social work activities, compared to 4.5% in 1994, now accounts for 5% of total employment in Scotland. In 2003 the comparator figure for England was 4.3%, Northern Ireland 4.6% and Wales 5.4%. Differences across the UK with respect to the proportion of social work activities employment are likely to be explained by a number of national differences including different statutory requirements, different systems of service provision, economies of scale and rural factors.

Figure 1.2

Source: 85.3 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) group 85.3 -Social work activities, Labour force survey 2003

16. Independent sector employment has now overtaken the public sector level in the social work activities sector. A breakdown of the overall trend growth in Figure 1.1 into private and public sector employment components indicates that it has primarily stemmed from the independent sector, which in the Labour Force Survey is defined as including both the private and voluntary sectors. Employment in the independent sector has grown from 37,000 in 1994 to 65,000 in 2003 which represents a 76% increase. This compares to an average independent sector employment growth rate of 11% over the same time period across all sectors in Scotland. Significantly the independent sector now accounts for more than 50% of employment in social work activities although this is still less than the Scotland all industry average of 73%. The trend over the last 9 years seems to indicate a shift in the percentage of independent employment towards that found on average across all sectors.

17. LFS data is also comparable with national all industry employment; social work activities public sector employment accounts for 8% of total direct public sector employment in Scotland. Labour Force Survey data suggests that over the nine year period (1994-2003) the level of employment within the public sector has remained fairly stable compared to the independent sector. As the source is survey based and subject to confidence intervals, small yearly movements cannot be reliably interpreted. Census information on local authority employment is however examined in Section 5 which indicates that this part of the public sector has seen a turnaround in employment levels between 1999 and 2002 with an increase of around 2,000 WTE (Whole Time Equivalent) posts following on from a downward trend pre 1999. It is clear however, when the local authority and public sector figures are placed in the context of a longer period of time, that the independent sector has been the main source of employment growth.

18. The employment growth in the independent sector may be fuelled to some extent by outsourcing from the public sector i.e. public sector finance for private sector service provision. Total local authority social work net current expenditure is plotted in Figure 1.3 which has increased from 1.069 Billion in 96/97 to 1.611 Billion in 02/03. Growth in local authority expenditure however has been higher in both absolute and percentage terms for gross third party payments to private persons/companies compared to in-house employee costs. This indicates that a higher percentage of the increase in funding has fed through to the independent sector and may help explain the expansion in employment experienced there. A breakdown of gross current expenditure show that there was an increase of 176m in payments to private persons and companies and of 95m to voluntary bodies over the 4-year period 1998-2002. Respectively, this represents 70% and 63% increases to both groups. All gross third party payments, which can be taken as a measure for the degree of outsourcing, represented 46% of total Local Authority Social Work Service department gross expenditure in the financial year 2002/3. ⁶

Figure 1.3

Source: Scottish Local Government Finance Statistics 02/03

Note: Gross expenditure includes employee costs, third party payments, transfer payments and support services. Net expenditure is defined as expenditure that is financed from grants, non-domestic rates, council tax and balances. Figures are in nominal terms and therefore not corrected for inflation.

SECTION 2 WORKFORCE AGE PROFILE

19. Workforce age profile has two main roles in workforce planning. It can help to estimate forthcoming replacement demand that will be caused by retirement but it can also help to identify career patterns in social care and how these may vary between different types of job. This section uses LFS data to examine age-band information for the broadly defined sector that is directly comparable with other UK countries and other Scottish sectors. Anonymised data from the Care commission Pre Inspection Returns (PIR's) is then used for a more accurate breakdown of age for the social care workforce that is regulated by the Care Commission, and which also allows the separate analysis of early education and childcare. Scottish Executive census information on social workers and teachers are used as comparators for age structure of these professions.

LABOUR FORCE SURVEY AGE PROFILES AND TRENDS

20. Currently, the Labour Force Survey indicates that 61% of the social work activities workforce is aged 40 or above. This compares to a 50% average across all sectors in Scotland, 58% in health and 69% in education (Figure 2.2). Additionally most of the employment growth between 1994 and 2003 discussed in Section 1 appears to have been through this age group. Between 1994 and 2003 the growth rate of numbers employed in the youngest age band was 5.6% compared to a growth rate of 33.3% in the over 50's. The average growth in employment across all age groups for this period was 23%. These figures could potentially capture a trend in the ageing of the existing workforce or may result from an expansion of the workforce through the entry of older employees into the sector.

Figure 2.1

Source: 85.3 Social Work Activities, Labour Force Survey 2003

21. Comparisons can also be made between Social Work Activities employees in Scotland and England, Wales and Northern Ireland (see Figure 2.3). Differences however in the general demographic composition of the population in these countries will also feed through into the age profiles of their workforce.

Figure 2.2
Comparator Scottish Sectors

Source: 85.3 Social Work Activities, Labour Force Survey 2003

Figure 2.3
Comparator UK Social Work Activities Sectors

Source: 85.3 Social Work Activities, Labour Force Survey 2003

REPLACEMENT DEMAND ESTIMATES

22. For replacement demand estimates a more accurate breakdown of age structure of the workforce is needed in order to assess whether there are any likely retirement bulges caused by the age composition of the current workforce. ⁷ It is natural to expect an ageing workforce as this is concurrent with the general trend of an ageing population. Historic public sector hiring patterns, for example substantial expansion in earlier decades, however may have implications for future workforce age composition and how it develops.

PRE-INSPECTION RETURN AGE PROFILES

23. Pre-Inspection returns data provide a sector specific age profile of the social care workforce, regulated by the care commission, including early years and childcare; both sectors are compared to the teacher workforce in Figure 2.4. ⁸ PIR data indicates that around 28,507 (53%) of the sample workforce is over the age of 40 which compares to the 61% estimate provided through the LFS. The age distribution may however vary between job types and sectors within social care, as well as definitional boundaries of sources. Abstracting the age profile of the Early Education and Childcare component (EE&C) it is evident that this part of the workforce is generally younger overall. The dip in the profile between the mid 20's into the 30's is likely to be explained by exit from the sector in a predominately (94%) female sector to care for their own children.

Figure 2.4 AGE PROFILE COMPARISON: Teachers, Social Care and Early Education and Childcare Staff

Sources: Teacher Staff census (Scottish Exec 2003), Pre- Inspection Returns (Care Commission)

Total Staff Sample Sizes

Note: Teacher information is based on census material, whereas the PIR data is taken from the available sample and therefore does not represent the full social care sector. The large size of the sample should however allow it to indicate the shape of the sector age profile. The available social care age profile includes the early education and childcare workforce but not childminders. SC-EE represents the age profile of social care employees when not including Early Education and Childcare.

24. Estimates of replacement demand are however more complicated than looking at those nearing retirement within the social care sector. There seems to be a quite significant dip in numbers within child-bearing years. Also, there is no sudden dip at the actual retirement age of 60/65; rather exit from the sector takes place gradually, with numbers of the workforce represented at each age falling steadily through the 40's, 50's and 60's. This reflects general patterns across all sectors in economic activity rates and employment rates ( See section 6). From the whole social care staff sample of 52,722 there are 7,117 staff who are reported to be between the ages of 55 and 65 which represents 13.5% of the total and who are most likely to exit from the sector over the next 5 years. However age profiles need to be monitored over time in order to assess changes in the age structure and the implied exit trends and recruitment bulge effects.

Figure 2.5
AGE COMPOSITION COMPARISONS

25. Local authority data is used in figure 2.5 to assess whether social workers as a professional group may be older than the wider social care workforce and in comparison to the teacher workforce. This does data not however cover the age profile of social workers in the private and voluntary sectors. 504 (12.2% of 4139) Social workers in local authorities are over the age of 55, of which 102 (2.5%) are over the age of 60. In terms of absolute numbers, the magnitude of potential replacement demand for the workforce is smaller than that for Teachers where 7804 (14.7%) are over the age of 55. The group with the highest percentage however of workforce that is over 55 and over 60 is that of social care not including early education and childcare. Of the sample 5,912 (17.1%) employees are over the age of 55. It should be noted however that this may just be due to specific career patterns for that particular sub-sector. Employees that enter this sector may do so at a later stage in their work-life. Additionally, non-professional staff may be easier to replace than qualified teachers or social workers.

Figure 2.6

Source: Local Authority Social Work Services annual census, 2003

Note: Five local authorities are missing from this dataset: Argyll & Bute, East Lothian and East Renfrewshire were unable to supply individual data (but did supply totals in age bands), while Dundee and Moray did not supply any age data. The sample for the age distribution therefore only contains 4139 Local Authority Social Workers as opposed to the total of 4511 actually employed throughout Scotland in October 2003.

Figure 2.7
AGE PROFILE COMPARISON: Teachers, Social Care, Social Workers, and All industries

Note: All Industries age composition taken from LFS 2002

26. Figure 2.7 gives a profile of the percentage of staff that fall under each age as opposed to absolute numbers so that comparisons can be made directly on age profile shape between social workers, teachers, the PIR social care workforce and the wider Scottish workforce. It is clear that entry into the social worker and teacher professions starts later and there does not seem to be the same apparent dip during childbearing years in these professions which is however evident in the wider social care workforce. Even in percentage terms the age profile for social workers seems quite balanced in comparison to teachers, and even compared to the wider social care workforce considering that a professional component of a sector is likely to have different career age patterns.

SECTION 3 GENDER, QUALIFICATIONS, AND JOB CHARACTERISTICS

MALE/FEMALE COMPOSITION

Figure 3.1

Source: 85.3 Social Work Activities, Labour Force Survey (ONS)

27. The following section uses labour force survey data to examine trends in gender, and qualifications of employees and also contracts and job tenure. Both female and male employment levels in social work activities have been increasing since 1994. Male employment now stands at 24,000 which represents 20% of the social work activities workforce. This is an increase from 12.5% in 1994 which shows a significant shift in the traditional composition of the sector.

Figure 3.2Qualifications of Social Work Activities Workforce

Source: 85.3 Social Work Activities Labour Force Survey (ONS)

28. Trends suggest that qualification levels of the workforce seem to be growing. There have been both upward trends in the number of employees that have been educated to degree level and the number of employees that have completed some form of further education. These figures do not however allow us to assess whether the qualifications were in a relevant field of study. Those with a degree or equivalent represent 17%, and those who have been educated at further education level represent 22%, of the 118,000 total of employees. The number of employees without any qualification (including Standard Grades, Highers, and other qualifications) has fallen over this period. The overall qualification composition of the sector is fairly in line with that of the national workforce.

Figure 3.3

Source: 85.3 Social Work Activities, Labour Force Survey (ONS)

Note: The definitional categories used are based on Office for National Statistics terminology as the labour force survey is conducted throughout the UK, however the Scottish equivalents apply for each level of qualification.

29. To assess the impact of forthcoming SSSC registration requirements however better information is needed on the specific social care qualifications of the current workforce. The demand created by the impact of legislation needs to be considered and also how this compares to the wider available labour market pool. Regulation introduces market rigidities that make it more difficult for labour to flow in and out, as it now requires specialist qualifications that are unique to the sector. Increases in demand in the sector also have to now be met by suitably qualified staff which if not anticipated can lead to vacancies due to the time lag effect in training staff. This increases the importance of workforce planning. The finance of training may not be undertaken by employers due to the risk of losing return to their investment if staff are "poached" or leave their job. Up-skilling of staff may lead to labour market disequilibria and wage inflation.

Figure 3.4Number of Employees in Full Time and Part Time Work (000's)

Source: 85.3 Social Work Activities Labour Force Survey (ONS)

30. The above graph breaks down the overall growth of employees into those that work part time and those that work full time. There has been a substantial rise in the numbers of employees who work full time and the numbers that work part time seem to have dipped a little (possibly changing to full time contracts or reflects the increasing percentage of male workers in the sector). This indicates that jobs in the sector are increasingly being taken up on a full time basis. This may stem from an increase in the supply of such jobs, or an increase in demand for such jobs by employees.

PERMANENT/TEMPORARY CONTRACTS

31. Between 1994 and 2003 the percentage of employees with permanent contracts was at its highest 85%. In comparison, the percentage of employees in all industries with a permanent contract varied between the range of 91% and 94% over the same period.

JOB TENURE DATA

32. The average length of time that employees reported to be continuously employed by the same employer in this sector was 80 months (6 Years and 8 months) which compares to an all industry average of 100 months (8 Years and 4 months). The differential could be explained by a range of possible labour market factors. Social Work Activities employment could demonstrate a higher rate of staff turnover, which would reduce the average length of job tenure compared to the all industry average. Alternatively it could reflect the higher rate of employment growth that the sector has experienced over the last nine years - a higher number of new employees entering the sector would bring down the average length of tenure in the sector.

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