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SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS ESTIMATES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2004

A Scottish Executive National Statistics Publication

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Scottish manufactured export sales grew by 2.0% in real terms in 2004 Q1 but decreased by 11.6% over the year to 2004 Q1, according to estimates published today by the Scottish Executive.

The main findings are:

• Scottish manufactured export sales grew by 2.0 per cent in real terms in 2004 Q1 but decreased by 11.6 per cent over the year to 2004 Q1.
• Since 2000, the level of manufactured export sales has fallen by 32.4 per cent in real terms.
• Over the year to 2004 Q1 only two industries had an increase in export sales in real terms - Food, Drink & Tobacco (+2.5%) and Other Manufacturing (+4.0%). Engineering & Allied Industries experienced the greatest decrease in export sales (-18.8%) over the year, followed by Metals (-9.5%) and Chemicals (-6.1%).
• Most industries increased their export sales over the latest quarter - most notably Other Manufacturing (16.7%) and Textiles (10.3%). Engineering and Allied Industries, the largest export industry in volume terms, increased by 2.0% over the latest quarter.

BACKGROUND NOTES

Methodology

1. Estimates of Scottish manufactured exports are compiled on the standard industrial classification UKSIC(2003). Implemented on 1st January 2003, UKSIC(2003) is a minor revision to UKSIC(92), in line with the latest revision of the European Union classification system.

2. The estimates are derived from data on sales of goods produced by the Scottish manufacturing industry for export outwith the UK. The Office for National Statistics collects the data used to produce these figures in their Monthly Production Inquiry. The data are then deflated to 2000 prices using UK export producer price indices, which are also produced by the ONS.

3. Deflated exports sales of the companies covered by the survey are then grossed up to represent the entire population using the Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR).

4. The data are then seasonally adjusted where appropriate. The Scottish Executive has developed systems to seasonally adjust the series in line with standard National Statistics practice.

5. The index of Scottish manufactured exports is based on a sample of around 1,000 Scottish manufacturing companies per quarter. This sample covers all sizes of unit across the manufacturing sector.

6. These figures only cover the manufacturing sector. The annual estimate of total exports from Scotland derived from the Global Connections Survey indicates that the manufacturing sector accounted for 14.3 billion - 76 per cent of all exports from Scotland in 2002.

7. Further information about the methodology of the Index of Manufactured Exports and the Global Connections Survey can be found on the website www.scotland.gov.uk/exports

Suspension of Series

8. Quarterly manufactured exports estimates are published today following a temporary suspension of the series in October 2003. The series was suspended to allow time to integrate the quarterly series with the development of the annual Global Connections Survey which was published in February 2004.

Presentational Changes following Suspension of Series

9. The previous quarterly series included estimates in both current and constant prices. Feedback from users suggested that this caused confusion over the appropriate figures to use to calculate changes over time. The new series is in constant prices only. Constant prices estimates provide a more appropriate measure for monitoring change over time as they remove the effect of price changes and allow the change in the volume of exports to be measured. The Global Connections Survey provides an annual estimate of exports in current prices. As this is a more detailed survey with a larger sample, it is considered to provide a better estimate of the current price value of exports than the quarterly series.

10. The series is now produced in index form rather than cash values. All export sales values have been deflated to 2000 prices, so cash values are not particularly meaningful. The main purpose of the series is to identify changes over time and therefore an index is more appropriate.

Comparison with Global Connections Survey

11. The two publications serve different (but complementary) purposes. The Global Connections Survey provides an annual cash estimate - in current prices - of the value of exports sales for the economy as a whole. The Quarterly Index of Manufactured Exports provides a time series of growth in export sales for the manufacturing industry.

12. Data have been cross-referenced with the Global Connections Survey at company level to check comparability between the two sources. As the GCS develops and more years of data become available, more work will be done to harmonise the two publications.

Revisions

13. It is not possible to directly compare the results from this publication and those published in October 2003 due to the changes in presentation of the series. However, it is possible to convert the (constant price) October estimates into an index to give a rough comparison of the two sets of figures - see chart below.

14. There are 2 main reasons for revisions to the previous series. Firstly, the industry level at which the sample data has been grossed to represent the population has been changed (from 10 industries under the previous methodology to 27 industries in the current methodology). Grossing at a more detailed industry level gives more accurate estimates as assumptions about companies outwith the survey are based on knowledge about companies with similar attributes. Secondly, the seasonal adjustment procedures have been changed to apply tighter rules for identifying seasonality.

15. It is our normal practice to publish detailed tables of revisions since the previous quarter's publication. It is not possible to do so this quarter as the previous estimates were in cash values whereas the current estimates are in index form. Full revision tables will be reinstated for next quarter's publication when comparisons can be made on the same basis.

National Statistics

16. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

Mercury and Profile users may obtain a copy of the Index tables by telephoning the number below or via the website www.scotland.gov.uk/exports

Issued by:
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
Scottish Executive
St Andrew's House
Regent Road
Edinburgh
EH1 3DG
Telephone:
Press Office:
Barry Winter
0131-244-2852
Statistician:
Julie Ramsay
0131-244-3771

Table 1: Quarterly Index of Scottish Manufactured Exports, in Constant (2000) prices, by Industry
Table 2: Quarterly Index of Scottish Manufactured Exports, in Constant (2000) prices, Detailed Industries

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