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Key 2003 Road Accident Statistics

1. Main Points

1.1 The provisional total number of people killed in road accidents in Scotland in 2003 was 332: an increase of 28 (9%) over the figure for 2002, but the fourth lowest total since current records began more than fifty years ago.

1.2 There were 2,931 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2003, 290 (9%) fewer than in 2002, and the lowest figure since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950.

1.3 There were 15,406 people recorded as slightly injured in 2003, 329 (2%) fewer than in 2002, and the lowest number since 1955.

1.4 The total number of casualties in 2003 was 18,669, which was 591 (3%) lower than in 2002, and the lowest figure since 1953.

1.5 There were 3,263 people killed or seriously injured in 2003, 33% (1,575) below the 1994-98 average of 4,838. The figure for 2003 is below the relevant indicative line, and therefore the reduction so far has been greater than would be needed to achieve the 2010 target fall of 40% by means of a constant annual percentage reduction.

1.6 431 children were killed or seriously injured in 2003, 49% (411) below the 1994-98 average of 842, so the 2010 target of a 50% reduction has almost been achieved.

1.7 At the time of writing, 2002 is the latest year for which there is an estimate of the total volume of traffic for Scotland as a whole. The slight casualty rate of 38.12 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2002 was 18% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 46.29, so the 2010 target of a 10% reduction has already been achieved.

1.8 Accidents on roads in non built-up areas accounted for almost three-quarters of all those killed in Scotland, compared with about two fifths of the total number of casualties, presumably because average speeds are higher on such roads.

1.9 A total of 11,706 car users were injured in road accidents in 2003, 185 of whom died (20% more than the previous year). There were 2,971 pedestrian casualties including 63 killed(14% less than the previous year). Because of their greater vulnerability, 26% of all pedestrian casualties were either killed or seriously injured, whereas only 14% of car users were killed or seriously injured.

1.10 There were 1,111 motorcycles, 877 bus and coach users and 800 pedal cyclists casualties in 2003.

1.11 There were 2,470 child casualties in 2003, 275 (10%) fewer than in 2002. They included 17 killed: 3 deaths more than in 2002.

2. Background

2.1 This bulletin presents provisional statistics of road accidents in which people were killed or injured ("injury road accidents") in Scotland in 2003, which were extracted from the Road Accidents statistical database on 18 May 2004. The final totals for 2003, which will appear later, in "Road Accidents Scotland 2003", may differ slightly from the figures given here, due to (e.g.) late returns and amendments. For similar reasons, the figures which appear here for 2002 and earlier years may differ slightly from those published previously.

2.2 Section 5, tables 3 - 5 and the charts on page 6 show progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2010. The targets are described in section 10.4. The figures for 2003 are compared with the annual averages for 1994-98, because this is the "baseline" period for the road safety targets for the year 2010. In the charts on page 6, the thick black lines show the figures recorded so far, the horizontal dashed lines show the baseline averages, and the dotted lines going downwards indicate how the figures would have to fall if the targets for 2010 were to be achieved by means of a constant percentage reduction in each year. They imply the following reductions from the 1994-98 averages by 2003:

- therefore, any falls which are greater than these suggest more rapid progress than the relevant indicative lines.

2.3 This edition of the bulletin has two new tables (Tables 8 and 9), which give the numbers of accidents and casualties, by severity, for each Police Force area and for each local authority area.

3. Numbers of Accidents ( Table 1)

3.1 Table 1 shows the numbers of injury road accidents recorded by the police in 2003 and some earlier years. As noted earlier, the figures relate only to those accidents in which one or more people were killed or injured. Each accident is classified according to the severity of the most seriously injured casualty who was involved in it.

3.2 Following the trend of most years since 1989, the total number of injury road accidents fell. In 2003, there were 13,854 accidents in which someone was killed or injured, 3% fewer than in 2002. The number of fatal accidents in 2003 (299) was 25 (9%) more than the figure for 2002 (274), but was the fourth lowest figure since records of fatal accidents began in 1970.

3.3 The number of serious injury accidents in 2003 (2,473) fell by 203 (8%) from the figure for 2002 (2,676) to the lowest figure recorded, and the number of "slight injury" accidents in 2003 (11,082) was 3% less than the figure for 2002 (11,378) and also the lowest number recorded since the current records began in 1970.

4. Numbers of Casualties by Severity ( Table 2)

4.1 Numbers fatally injured

Table 2 shows that the provisional total number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 2003 was 332. This was 28 (9%) higher than the figure for 2002, but was the fourth lowest since the current records began more than 50 years ago (information about road accident fatalities prior to 1947 is not readily available). With a few exceptions, there has been a fall in each year since 1978, and for most of that period the figures show a clear, steady long-term downward trend, particularly between 1982 and 1994. From that point, the numbers appear to have been fluctuating around a less pronounced downward trend.

4.2 Numbers seriously injured

There were 2,931 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2003: 290 (9%) fewer than in 2002. This is the lowest figure since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950. Since the early 1980s, the long-term trend has generally been downward, although there was an apparent levelling-off when the figures for 1996, 1997 and 1998 showed very little change, all being around 4,050. However, since then it appears that the downward trend has resumed, with falls in every year since 1998.

4.3 Numbers slightly injured

There were 15,406 people recorded as slightly injured in 2003: 329 (2%) fewer than in 2002. This is the lowest number recorded since 1955. Between 1970 and 1990, the figures fluctuated in a range which was broadly 17,000 to 21,000. The fall between 1990 and 1995 in the number of people with slight injuries, followed by an apparent levelling-off at around 17-18,000 in each of the years from 1996 to 1999, could have been a continuation of that pattern. However, the falls in the figures in every year since 1997 suggest a resumption of the downward trend.

4.4 Total numbers of casualties

The total number of casualties (of all severities) in 2003 was 18,669 which was 591 (3%) lower than in 2002. This represented the lowest number of casualties since 1953. Between about 1970 and 1990, the figures appeared to fluctuate greatly around a general downward trend. Subsequently, the total number of casualties fell markedly from the level of the most recent "short-term" peak (which was over 27,000 in both 1989 and 1990), before appearing to level off: the figures for each of the years from 1993 to 1998 were all within about 600 (3%) of the average of 22,332 for those six years. However, it appears that the downward trend has resumed: the figures for 2001 onwards were the first for almost 50 years to be below 20,000.

5. Progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2010 ( Tables 3-5)

5.1 Killed or seriously injured casualties

There were 3,263 people killed or seriously injured in 2003, 33% (1,575) below the 1994-98 average of 4,838. As noted in paragraph 2.2, the relevant "indicative line" figure for 2003 is 22.5% below the 1994-98 baseline average. The reduction so far has been greater than would be needed to achieve the 2010 target fall of 40% by means of a constant annual percentage reduction, so the figure for 2003 is below the relevant indicative line. Table 3 shows that this is also the case for most modes of transport: the percentage fall from the 1994-98 average number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties is more than 22.5% for most modes of transport, and so their figures would be below their indicative lines (if it is assumed that the percentage reduction should be the same for each mode of transport).

About half of all the 3,263 KSI casualties in 2003 were car users. The total of 1,682 car KSI casualties in 2003 was 33% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 2,501, and therefore better than the indicative line reduction. There were 767 pedestrian KSI casualties in 2003, 44% fewer than the annual average of 1,376 for the period 1994-98. However, the number of motorcycle KSI casualties in 2003 was 417, an increase of 17% (62) from the 1994-98 average: this was the only category of road user for which the figure in 2003 was above the indicative line. There were 137 pedal cycle KSI casualties, 45% below the 1994-98 average, and 125 goods vehicle user KSI casualties, 27% below the baseline average. The numbers of KSI casualties were smaller for each of the remaining categories of road user (bus/coach: 71; others: 64).

5.2 Child killed or seriously injured casualties

431 children were killed or seriously injured in 2003, 49% (411) below the 1994-98 average of 842, so the target of a 50% reduction by 2010 has almost been met. The indicative line figure for 2003 is 29.3% below the 1994-98 average. Table 4 shows that, in 2003, the figures for child pedestrians, pedal cyclists and car users were all below the indicative line. The figures for the other modes of transport are very small.

About two-thirds of the 431 child killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties in 2003 were pedestrians. The number of child pedestrian KSI casualties in 2003 was 272, 290 (52%) below the 1994-98 average of 562, and therefore meeting the 2010 target of a 50% reduction. There were 93 child car KSI casualties in 2003, a fall of 52 (36%) from the 1994-98 average of 145, and therefore their numbers would be below the indicative line. The number of child pedal cycle KSI casualties in 2003 was 48, 52 (52%) below the 1994-98 average of 100 and therefore meeting the 2010 target of a 50% reduction. As there are few child KSI casualties for other modes of transport, small fluctuations in their numbers can cause apparently large percentage changes from the 1994-98 baseline average levels - so percentage changes for them are not shown in Table 4.

5.3 Slightly injured casualties, and the slight casualty rate per 100 million vehicle kilometres

At the time of writing, 2002 is the latest year for which there is an estimate of the total volume of traffic for Scotland as a whole. The slight casualty rate of 38.12 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2002 was 18% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 46.29, so the 2010 target of a 10% reduction has already been achieved.

Almost two-thirds of slight casualties in 2003 were car users. The total number of car user slight casualties in 2003 was 10,024: 8% below the 1994-98 average of 10,859. There were 2,204 pedestrian slight casualties, 27% fewer than the 1994-98 average of 3,009. Bus and coach user slight casualties totalled 806 in 2003, 12% fewer than the 1994-98 average, the number of pedal cyclist slight casualties (663) was 36% below the baseline average, and goods vehicle user slight casualties (539) were 8% fewer than the baseline average. However, motorcyclist slight casualties (694 in 2003) were 20% above the 1994-98 average.

6. Casualties by Type of Road ( Table 6)

6.1 In 2003, "non built-up" roads (see the definition in section 10.3) accounted for about two-fifths of the total number of casualties (42%: 7,904 out of 18,669). However, presumably because average speeds are higher on non built-up roads than elsewhere, they accounted for around three-quarters of those killed (74%: 245 out of 332) and for over half of the total number of killed and seriously injured combined (52%: 1,682 out of 3,263).

6.2 Compared with the 1994-98 average, the fall in the total number of casualties has been greater for "built-up" roads (20%) than for non built-up roads (11%). The difference between the two types of road is greater when one compares the falls from the 1994-98 averages for the numbers killed (down by 24% for built-up roads compared with 7% for non built-up) and for the numbers killed or seriously injured (falls of 36% for built up roads and 29% for non-built up roads).

7. Casualties by Mode of Transport ( Table 6)

7.1 Car users

A total of 11,706 car users were injured in road accidents, representing just over three-fifths of all casualties (63%: 11,706 out of 18,669). Of these people, a total of 1,682 were either killed or seriously injured, 185 of whom died. Non built-up roads accounted for a little over half of all car user casualties (54%: 6,337 out of 11,706). Presumably because average speeds are higher on non built-up roads, they accounted for much higher percentages of the total numbers of car users who were killed (88%: 163 out of 185) or were killed or seriously injured (71%: 1,187 out of 1,682).

The number of car user fatalities in 2003 was 20% higher than in 2002, but was 11% below the 1994-98 average level. The number who were killed or seriously injured fell by 5% from 2002, and the total number of casualties (of all severities) was 1% less than in the previous year. The total number of car user casualties in 2003 was 12% below the 1994-98 average.

7.2 Pedestrians

There were 2,971 pedestrian casualties in 2003: over a sixth of all casualties (16%: 2,971 out of 18,669). Of these, 767 were killed or seriously injured (63 died). Presumably because of the greater vulnerability of pedestrians, 26% of pedestrian casualties were killed or seriously injured (767 out of 2,971) compared with 14% of all car users (1,682 out of 11,706). About 95% of pedestrian casualties occurred on built-up roads (2,829 out of 2,971). Perhaps because of higher average speeds on non built-up roads, 54% of the pedestrian casualties on such roads were seriously injured or killed (77 out of 142) compared with 24% on built-up roads (690 out of 2,829).

7.3 Other casualties

Together, all other modes of transport accounted for a fifth (21%) of casualties in 2003 (3,992 out of 18,669) and for a similar proportion of the total number of killed and seriously injured (25%: 814 out of 3,263). In 2003 there were 1,111 motor cycle casualties, (5% fewer than 2002 but 19% above the 1994-98 average), of whom 417 (38%) suffered fatal or serious injuries (50 died). A total of 877 bus and coach users were injured, of whom 71 were killed or seriously injured (1 died) - these low proportions presumably being due to the greater protection of their passengers by buses and coaches. The number of bus and coach user casualties rose by 2% in 2003, but was 13% below the 1994-98 average level. There were 800 pedal cyclist casualties in 2003, (3% fewer than in 2002 and 38% below the 1994-98 average level), including 137 (17%) killed or seriously injured (14 died).

8. Child Casualties ( Table 7)

8.1 Child casualties

There were 2,470 child casualties in 2003, representing about an eighth of the total number of casualties of all ages (13%: 2,470 out of 18,669). Of the child casualties, 431 were killed or seriously injured, of whom 17 died. This was 3 deaths more than in 2002; the total number of child casualties fell by 275 (10%). These numbers were all considerably below the 1994-98 average levels: the number of casualties was 36% lower, the number of deaths was about half of the 1994-98 average level and the number of killed or seriously injured was 49% below the 1994-98 average level.

8.2 Child pedestrians

There were 1,196 child pedestrian casualties in 2003. They accounted for 40% of all pedestrian casualties of all ages (1,196 out of 2,971). Of the child pedestrian casualties, 272 were killed or seriously injured (5 died). The number of killed was 7 fewer than in 2002, and the total number of killed and seriously injured was 20% lower than in 2002. The figures were considerably below the corresponding 1994-98 averages: the number of killed and seriously injured child pedestrian casualties and the overall number of child pedestrian casualties were, respectively, 52% and 38% below the 1994-98 average level.

8.3 Children in cars

In 2003, there were 822 child casualties in cars, 7% of the total number of car user casualties of all ages (822 out of 11,706). Of the child casualties in cars, 93 were killed or seriously injured (10 died). While the total number of child car user killed and seriously injured was 36% below the 1994-98 average, the total number of child car user casualties (of all severities) was only 25% lower than the 1994-98 average.

8.4 Other child casualties

In 2003, there were 275 child pedal cycle casualties (34% of the total of 800 pedal cycle casualties of all ages), 99 child bus and coach user casualties (11% of the total of 877 of all ages) and 78 other child casualties. The child pedal cycle casualties included 48 serious injuries, and 2 deaths. The total number of child pedal cycle casualties in 2003 was 49% below the 1994-98 average, and the total number of child bus and coach user casualties was 45% below the 1994-98 average.

9. Accidents and Casualties by Police Force and Local Authority area ( Tables 8 and 9)

9.1 Tables 8 and 9 give the numbers of accidents and numbers of casualties in each Police Force area and each Local Authority area. When using these tables, it must be remembered that there can be quite large percentage year-to-year fluctuations in the figures for areas within Scotland, particularly for those with the lower numbers. Therefore, the annual average for the latest five years may be a better guide to the "normal" level of the numbers than the figures for the latest single year.

10. Sources and definitions

10.1 The sources of the data

The statistics in this bulletin were compiled from returns made by police forces, which cover all accidents in which a vehicle is involved that occur on roads (including footways) and result in personal injury, if they become known to the police. The vehicle need not be moving, and need not be in collision - for example, the returns include accidents involving people alighting from buses. "Damage only" accidents are not included in this definition.

10.2 The definition of "severity" used in the Road Accident statistics

The classification of the severity of an accident (as "fatal", "serious" or "slight") is determined by the severity of the injury to the most severely injured casualty. The police usually record this information soon after the accident occurs. However, if further information becomes available which would alter the classification (for example, if a person dies within 30 days of the accident, as a result of the injuries sustained in the accident) the police change the initial classification of the severity.

For the purposes of the Road Accidents statistical returns:

a fatal injury is one which causes death less than 30 days after the accident;
a fatal accident is an accident in which at least one person is fatally injured;
a serious injury is one which does not cause death less than 30 days after the accident, and which is in one (or more) of the following categories:

(a) an injury for which a person is detained in hospital as an in-patient
or (b) any of the following injuries (whether or not the person is detained in hospital): fractures, concussion, internal injuries, crushings, severe cuts and lacerations, severe general shock requiring treatment
or (c) any injury causing death 30 or more days after the accident;

a serious accident is one in which at least one person is seriously injured, but no-one suffers a fatal injury;
a "slight" injury is any injury which is neither "fatal" nor "serious" - for example, a sprain, bruise or cut which is not judged to be severe, or slight shock requiring roadside attention;
a "slight" accident is one in which at least one person suffers "slight" injuries, but no-one is seriously injured, or fatally injured.

Over the years, improvements in vehicle design, and the provision and use of additional safety features, together with changes in the law (e.g. on the fitting and wearing of seat belts), will all have helped to reduce the severity of the injuries suffered in some accidents. Road safety measures should also have reduced the levels of injuries sustained. For example, if traffic calming schemes reduce average speeds, people may suffer only "slight injury" in collisions that previously would have taken place at higher speeds and so might previously have resulted in "serious injury".

However, it is also possible that some of the changes shown in the statistics of "serious injuries" and "slight injuries" may be due to changes in administrative practices, which may have altered the proportion of accidents which is categorised as "serious". For example, the distinction between "serious" and "slight" injuries could be affected by factors such as changes in hospitals' admission policies. All else being equal, the number of "serious injury" cases would rise, and the number of "slight injury" cases would fall, if it became standard procedure for a hospital to keep in overnight, for precautionary reasons, casualties with a particular type of injury. The increase in the number of "serious" injury accidents in 1994 was partly attributed to a change in the health boards' policies in admitting more child casualties for overnight observation, which in turn changed the classification of many injuries from "slight" to "serious". The number of child casualties recorded as having serious injuries in 1994 was 35% higher than in the previous year. There could also be changes in hospitals' procedures that would reduce the numbers of "serious injury" cases. In addition, there is anecdotal evidence that changes in procedures for assigning severity codes may affect the categorisation of injuries. For example, different severity codes might be assigned by a police officer who was at the scene of an accident and by a clerk who bases the code on a police officer's written description of the accident.

10.3 Some other definitions

Built-up roads: accidents which occur on "built-up" roads are those which occur on roads which have speed limits of up to 40 miles per hour ( ignoring temporary speed limits on roads for which the normal speed limit is over 40mph). Therefore, an accident on a motorway in an urban area would not be counted as occurring on a "built-up" road, because the speed limit on the motorway is 70mph. An accident on a stretch of motorway with a temporary speed limit of 30mph would not be counted as occurring on a "built-up" road, because the normal speed limit is 70mph.

Children: people under 16 years old.

Pedestrians: includes people riding toy cycles on the footway, people pushing bicycles, people pushing or pulling other vehicles or operating pedestrian-controlled vehicles, those leading or herding animals, occupants of prams or wheelchairs, and people who alight safely from vehicles and are subsequently injured.

10.4 The targets for reducing road accident casualties by the year 2010

In March 2000, the UK Government, the Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new national road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. These targets were introduced to focus on achieving a further substantial improvement in road safety over the next ten years, with particular emphasis on child casualties. The targets, which are given in the document "Tomorrow's roads - safer for everyone", are based on the annual average casualty levels over the period 1994 to 1998. By 2010 it is hoped that there will be, compared with the average for 1994-98:

• a 40% reduction in the number of people killed or seriously injured in road accidents.
• a 50% reduction in the number of children killed or seriously injured; and
• a 10% reduction in the slight casualty rate, expressed as the number of people slightly injured per 100 million vehicle kilometres.

10.5 The calculation of the "indicative lines" shown in the graphs

One way of assessing progress towards these targets is to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 1996 and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, to the target for 2010. This is the approach adopted by the GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. The indicative line starts at the baseline figure in 1996 because that is the middle year of the 1994-98 "baseline" period. Other approaches could have been used: there are many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for 2010.

As the method adopted to produce the indicative lines involves a constant percentage reduction in each year, the lines are not straight. This is due to the "compounding over the years" effect of constant annual percentage reductions: each year's fall in an indicative line's figure is calculated by applying a constant percentage reduction to the line's number of casualties in the previous year (which reduces each year, so the falls between one year and the next get smaller and smaller). To two decimal places, the falls are: 3.58% p.a. for killed or seriously injured casualties; 4.83% p.a. for child killed or seriously injured casualties; and 0.75% p.a. for the slight casualty rate.

More statistics relating to the targets appear in "Road Accidents Scotland". A table on page 46 of "Road Accidents Scotland 2002" shows the percentages of the baseline averages in each year which are represented by each of the indicative lines.

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