« Previous | Contents | Next »
Listen
Scottish Economic Report: March 2004
3.8 Summary of the Scottish Economy
Although business surveys indicated difficulties in the first part of 2003, GDP data for the second quarter showed these were concentrated in manufacturing, with growth in services resulting in an overall growth of 0.8 per cent over the quarter, followed by growth of 0.3 per cent over the third quarter. Furthermore, the revised GDP index for Scotland shows a stronger growth performance than the superseded data series in recent years although the key differences of strong growth in the services sector and a decline in manufacturing remain. The overall position does go some way to explaining the strength of the labour market in Scotland over the past couple of years- rising employment had previously been described as "growthless jobs" by some commentators.
Looking forward, all business surveys monitored by the Executive are now pointing towards a continued modest strengthening of business activity in Scotland in both services and, importantly, manufacturing. It is worth noting that the Royal Bank of Scotland PMI reports continue to suggest that the rest of the UK is now growing at a faster rate than Scotland.
Analysis on productivity normally uses employment data based from the Annual Business Inquiry.
Both the Scottish and UK economies are heavily influenced by the international picture which is exhibiting some positive signs. This global economic upturn appears to be driven largely by a US-led recovery, although key Eurozone economies - and Scottish export markets - may also be seeing something of a recovery, with both Germany and France reporting returns to positive levels of growth in the third quarter of 2003. Scotland is well placed to move forward as it benefits from robust economic fundamentals such as low levels of inflation, interest rates and unemployment as well as strong domestic demand.
Footnotes to Chapter 3
1. This chapter incorporates data available up to 11 February 2004
2. Tourist related industries are 1992 SIC groups 55.1- hotels, 55.2-camping sites, 55.3-restaurants, 55.4-bars, 63.3- travel agencies, 92.5- libraries, archives and museums, 92.6- sporting activities and 92.7-other recreational activities.
3. Jobseeker's Allowance rates for Unitary Authorities are not seasonally adjusted
4 LFS data on employment is used for the analysis above for consistency with the data on hours worked. Analysis on productivity normally uses employment data based from the Annual Business Inquiry.
« Previous | Contents | Next »