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RESULTS OF TEACHER WORKFORCE PLANNING FOR 2004/05

February 24, 2004

A Scottish Executive National Statistics Publication

This document is also available in pdf format (112k)

The tables are also available in Excel format

The results of the latest round of teacher workforce planning are published today by the Scottish Executive. This Statistics Publication Notice gives the following information from the planning process

• pupil and teacher number projections.
• information on the numbers of teachers joining and leaving the teacher workforce.
• information on the number of vacancies in schools.
• an estimate of the age-profile of the teacher workforce.
• advice provided on the future requirement for newly qualified teachers.

Pupil Projections

Projected numbers of pupils were created using the population projections obtained from the Government Actuary's Department, based on the 2001 population census. They are therefore not a prediction of what will happen, but a projection based on assumptions about fertility, migration, etc.

The main findings were: -

• The number of pupils in pre-school centres was projected to decrease from 58,000 (September 2002) to around 53,000 in 2013. This represents a fall of eight per cent and is in line with the expected decrease in the number of children of pre-school age.
• The number of pupils in publicly funded primary schools was projected to continue to fall steadily from 414,000 in September 2002 to 353,000 in 2010, down 15 per cent, and to 347,000 in 2013, 16 per cent less than 2002.
• The number of pupils in publicly funded secondary schools was projected to increase from 317,000 in September 2002 to more than 320,000 in 2003. The number of pupils is then projected to fall steadily to 268,000 in 2013, 15 per cent less than in 2002.
• The numbers of pupils in publicly funded special schools and independent schools were both projected to fall, in line with the anticipated decrease in the number of children of school age. The projections take account of changing trends in the mainstreaming of special school pupils.

Teacher Projections

Projected teacher figures were based on the projected pupil numbers, taking into account different pupil teacher ratios in different size schools, and information from the September 2002 School Census. The figures were then increased to incorporate the extra teachers needed to implement the agreement 'A Teaching Profession for the 21 ^st Century' (the teachers pay and conditions agreement), and the Executive's Partnership Agreement commitment to increase teacher numbers to 53,000 teachers by 2007. Projections beyond 2007 are based on maintaining the pupil/teacher ratios for that year.

The main findings were:

• The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded pre-school centres was projected to initially remain fairly constant around the September 2002 level of 1,600, before falling to 1,500 by 2013.
• The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded primary schools was projected to rise steadily from 23,000 in 2002 to 24,000 in 2007, before potentially falling to 22,000 by 2013.
• The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded secondary schools was projected to rise steadily from 25,000 in 2002 to 26,000 in 2007, before potentially falling to 24,000 by 2013.
• In the publicly funded special sector, teacher numbers were expected to decrease gradually in line with the projected gradual decline in the number of pupils at special schools. The projections took account of changing trends in the mainstreaming of special school pupils.

Teachers joining or leaving the workforce

• From the available information, about two per cent of the workforce retired during the year (incl. ill health and early retirement), one per cent left to take maternity leave, and two per cent left for other reasons.
• From the available information, about three per cent of the workforce joined as first appointments, and two per cent were returning after a break in employment in Scotland (including maternity).

Teacher Vacancies at September 2003

The main findings of a snap-shot survey from education authorities were:

• There were 759 vacancies on Friday September 19 ^th 2003, which was approximately two per cent of the full teaching complement. Less than a third of these had been vacant for more than three months.
• The highest vacancy rates were in general science (four per cent, although this involves small numbers), mathematics, learning support and in special schools (each two per cent).

Demand for new Gaelic medium and Roman Catholic approved teachers,

As part of the new annual staff census, information on ability to teach through Gaelic and Roman Catholic approval is collected for all staff. This will enable supply in these areas to be modelled. The survey of local authorities' expected need for these teachers was therefore discontinued.

Requirement for newly qualified teachers

The Partnership Agreement committed the Executive to provide 53,000 teachers by 2007. This becomes the main driver in the workforce planning model. The number of new teachers each year has therefore been planned taking into consideration practical limitations of teacher training establishments and the need to ensure enough teachers to meet the 2006 class contact time reductions of 'A Teaching Profession for the 21 ^st Century'. The main results were:

• The requirement for additional primary and pre-school teachers will rise to 1,400 in 2005, and then to 1,700 in both 2006 and 2007. The number then falls to about 1,000 in 2008 before rising each year due to the age profile of the teaching workforce. Reductions in class sizes in P1 could be met from within these numbers.
• The requirement for additional secondary teachers will increase to 1,300 in 2005, 1,700 in 2006 and 1,500 in 2007. The number then falls to about 900 in 2008 before rising each year until 2011 due to the age profile of the teaching workforce. Reductions in class sizes in S1 and S2 maths and English could be met from within these numbers.

CONTENTS

Tables
Table 1 Projected number of pupils, by school sector.
Table 2 Projected number of FTE teachers, by school sector.
Table 3 Information on teachers joining and leaving the workforce
Table 4 Vacancies in schools

Charts
Chart 1 Number of pupils and FTE teachers in publicly funded primary and secondary schools.
Chart 2 Estimated age profile of teacher workforce.
Chart 3 Modelled future requirement of newly qualified teachers.

BACKGROUND NOTES

1. The information in this Publication Notice is derived from:

a) Census of Pre-school Education Centres, 2002 - pupil counts and 2001 teacher counts

b) School Census September 2000, 2001, 2002 - pupil and teacher counts.

c) Government Actuary's Department - 2001 population census based interim population projections. These projections are the result of assumptions made about future fertility, mortality and migration patterns based on past trends. GRO Scotland have recently produced updated projections which were not used here.

2. The methodology employed in projecting pupil numbers is described in Pupil Projections for Scotland, 2003, published in August 2003. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00282-00.asp

3. The teacher projections firstly consider pupil and teacher counts from the School Census on a school-by-school basis. FTE teacher numbers are then forecast for each school, based on the projected school roll and a pupil/teacher ratio. This ratio is dependent on the size of the school.

4. Additional teachers needed as a result of government commitments are incorporated in the teacher projections. The two specific factors from the agreement giving rise to an increased demand for teachers are:

(a) Commitment to 53,000 teachers by 2007.

(b) Reduction in class contact time to 22.5 hours per week.

Projections beyond 2007 are based on maintaining the pupil/teacher ratios for that year. Policy decisions have yet to be reached on the situation post 2007.

5. Projected teacher figures are fed into the Teacher Workforce Planning model, which estimates the number of new teachers that will be needed each year to meet this overall demand. The model takes account of a range of other relevant information, such as age profiles and numbers of teachers entering and leaving the profession. Note that the Teacher Workforce Planning model operates on a headcount (rather than FTE) basis, as its main aim is to advise on how many students should be admitted to teacher training courses each year.

6. All tables are available on the Scottish Executive website at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00322-00.asp

7. This is a National Statistics publication. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

8. Public enquiries (non-media) about the information contained in this Publication Notice should be addressed to

Mal Cooke, Education and Children Statistics, SEED, 1-A Victoria Quay, Edinburgh, EH6 6QQ. Telephone : 0131-244-1689

or e-mail : school.stats@scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Press Contact: Ashley Duff : 0131 244 2087

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