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Progress With Complexity
The 2003 National Overview Report

ANNEX A SWSI Workforce Intelligence Unit Report

Introduction

The SWSI Workforce Intelligence Unit has been set up by the Scottish Executive in order to provide labour market information and analysis on the sector. The following summary provides some current information on trends and analysis of the Social Care Labour Market in Scotland. A full report will be available in April 2004.

Overview

Social work activities employment has been expanding and its importance as a proportion of total Scottish employment has also grown. The recent growth in local authority employment in social work services is therefore set against a backdrop of wider expansion throughout the whole sector. The growth in reported local authority vacancies over the last few years will therefore be partly explained by the pace of expansion since 1999 and future vacancy rates will hinge on whether the demand from local authorities and the independent sector continues to grow and on the rate at which it does so.

Changes in the composition of the workforce also seem evident in terms of age and gender. There has been a significant increase in the proportion of male employment in the sector although initial levels were quite low. A large proportion of the workforce now falls in the older categories and this would reflect the ageing nature of those already in the sector but possibly also expansion in the sector being met primarily by older age groups. The age composition of the workforce is important as a glut of retirements would affect staffing levels and vacancies across the sector not just within local authorities.

Figure (i)

Source: 85.3 Social Work Activities Labour Force Survey (ONS)

The Labour Force Survey provides an estimate of the numbers of employees working in the Social Work Activities category. This includes employees in the public, private and the voluntary sector and covers all types of job activities associated with the sector. The numbers in employment have been growing over the last decade and have expanded from 96,000 in 1994 to 118,000 in 2003. These estimates are subject to margins of error such that relatively small fluctuations during this time-period cannot be interpreted; however, the trend in the growing size of the workforce is clear.

Figure (ii)

Source: 85.3 Social Work Activities Labour Force Survey (ONS)

The proportion of employees in Social Work Activities compared to the rest of the Scottish workforce has also been growing. This provides evidence of the increasing importance of the sector to the economy in terms of employment _ Social Work Activities now account for around 5% of total employment in Scotland.

Figure (iii)

Source: 85.3 Social Work Activities Labour Force Survey (ONS)

Currently, 61% of the Social Work Activities Workforce is aged 40 or above. Additionally, most of the employment expansion between 1994 and 2003 revealed in Figure (i) appears to have been through this age group. Between 1994 and 2003, the growth rate of numbers employed in the youngest age band was 5.6% compared to a growth rate of 33.3% in the over 50s. These figures could potentially capture a trend in the ageing of the existing workforce but also the expansion of the workforce through entry into the sector by the workforce in the older categories.

Figure (iv)

Source: 85.3 Social Work Activities Labour Force Survey (ONS)

Both female and male employment levels have been increasing since 1994. Male employment now stands at 24,000 which represents 20% of the Social Work Activities Workforce. This is an increase from 13% in 1994 which shows a significant shift in the traditional composition of the sector.

Figure (v)

Source: Scottish Executive Annual Local Authority Social Work Services Staffing Census

It is estimated that local authorities account for around one-third of the total Social Care Labour Market with 36,415 whole-time equivalent employees in 2003. It should be noted that the census data used in this graph do not have the same definition boundaries for the sector as the Labour Force Survey but give an indication of the total of staffing levels in all local authorities in Scotland. The main drawback is that the degree of contracting out is not reflected in these figures which may be part of the explanation behind the dip in staff between 1996 and 1999. It is evident that from 1999 there have been rising (Working Time Equivalent) staff levels. Vacancy figures are available from 2000 and there has been a growing gap between actual staffing levels and desired staffing levels (WTE plus vacancies). Evidently employment levels have been expanding in local authorities but demand has been growing faster than supply which has been reflected in growing vacancy rates. It should be noted, however, that vacancy figures may not give an accurate reflection of labour market shortages because of a range of other factors that may affect the reported vacancy rates.

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