The Scottish Government

« Previous | Contents | Next »

Listen

The Ability of Public Transport to Cope withTarget Passenger Increases: Final Report

10. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

10.1 Key Findings

10.1.1 In general terms, it would appear that considerable spare capacity exists within the urban and inter-urban public transport systems in Scotland. Furthermore, rail capacity is more easily and directly influenced by the Scottish Executive and SPT and, to a lesser extent, local authorities, whereas bus service provision is less easily influenced. It should be remembered, though, that the findings from this study relate solely to the availability of sufficient capacity to be able to meet the target growth and in no way imply that such growth will be achieved without other measures to encourage public transport use. They simply identify that, in general terms, the physical capacity of the public transport system is such that the majority of target growth should be able to be accommodated, albeit with some constraints to this generalisation. For both bus and rail, specific problems with peaking were identified, though these were often as a result of service perturbations (e.g. train cancellations or short formations; bunching of buses due to road congestion). This means they are not always consistent or predictable from day to day. This leads to "value for money" arguments, whereby it is very expensive to provide additional capacity at the high peak periods which is then unused at other times.

10.1.2 In terms of the target setting bodies, this study has highlighted the following general issues with regard to public transport's ability to cope, both with existing demand, and new demand that is implied in the targets:

• the majority of larger authorities have set targets for growth in public transport use and/or mode shift away from car; these targets were set in one of two ways - aspirationally, or in relation to some form of modelling exercise.
• problems of insufficient capacity to meet demand are most acute in morning peak travel into large cities. Authorities do not generally have quantitative measures of the scale of the problem, and so the results of this study will assist them.
• most authorities have a wide range of measures that they have implemented, or are intending to implement, to achieve their targets. It is the package as a whole, rather than the sum of individual parts, that is intended to achieve results.
• there are problems in working to achieve targets. These are caused, firstly, by the difficulties of delivery in the rail system; and, secondly, by the differing priorities of commercial bus operators and local authorities who are more concerned with maximising social benefit.
• nonetheless, there is evidence from some authorities that they are moving towards the achievement of their targets.

10.1.3 Specifically relating to buses, the main findings are as follows:

• there is evidence that the long term decline in bus patronage has been turned around in some areas. This is particularly evident in Glasgow and Edinburgh and on the high frequency express services operated by Scottish Citylink and some of the other bus operators.
• generally speaking there is sufficient capacity currently available to meet peak period demand in all places and spare capacity is generally available outside the two main cities of Glasgow and Edinburgh. Any incidents of overcrowding and/or passengers left behind are usually because of bunching caused by traffic congestion and not a shortage of capacity across the full peak period.
• operators actively attempt to match vehicle capacity with demand on individual journeys by converting single decker routes to double decker ones or by using higher capacity vehicles when necessary. Most operators are part of national groups and have the ability to transfer vehicles between group subsidiaries to ensure adequate capacity.
• operators have been able to cope so far with the upsurge in demand brought about by the national concessionary fares scheme. This in itself may enable companies to meet some of target increases in bus travel. Indeed, it is possible that some local authority targets may be met by an increase in off-peak concessionary travel alone obviating a need to include consideration of additional peak hour demand.
• the biggest constraint on the ability of bus operators to further increase capacity is the ability to recruit and, more particularly, retain sufficient bus drivers. This problem is most acute in Glasgow and Edinburgh. The problem is not that bus drivers are inadequately paid, it is more about the difficulties in dealing with an element of anti-social passengers, the stress of coping with long periods of traffic congestion and the associated uncertainties over shift finish times.
• bus operators have had no active involvement in setting targets for increased bus usage nor any detailed discussions about how such targets might be achieved.
• operators are normally greatly encouraged by schemes which are promoted by local authorities to improve bus transport and are often prepared to make financial contributions. Such schemes, however, are usually initiated by the authorities and operators are consulted about the details but not necessarily the principles.
• bus operators would like to see more bus priority measures, perhaps with greater emphasis on priorities at signals and junctions. Bus priority measures improve journey times for passengers, provide greater reliability of services, less stress for drivers and allow more productive use of a fixed set of resources. There is also a benefit in vehicle location to give real time information and better fleet management.

10.1.4 In the rail industry, committed new rolling stock should solve much of the existing overcrowding and create spare capacity to cope with growth, together with an ability to cope better with service disruption (e.g. longer peak trains and longer terminus turnround times for the Edinburgh to Glasgow shuttle). To ensure sufficient capacity across all parts of the existing rail network to meet targets, some additional train lengthening, requiring further rolling stock, may be required. In a very few instances, where train lengthening is not currently an option to provide additional capacity, other measures such as platform lengthening or the creation of additional train paths may be required to allow routes to fully meet the target growth. The main concern in the rail industry appears to be the creation of a more robust timetable, requiring less intensive utilisation in terms of both the infrastructure and the rolling stock. Moves to create greater robustness in certain areas are already planned when the new ScotRail rolling stock is introduced.

10.1.5 In aggregate form, it appears that the rail network will have the ability to cope with target growth across Scotland with little difficulty - the main concern, though, is perhaps the commitment that no ScotRail passenger should have to stand for more than 10 minutes. Day to day variations in demand, together with unpredictable service disruption, make it very difficult to so precisely match supply and demand. In addition, providing additional capacity at the height of the peak would be expected simply to encourage more trip-making at this time and not to reduce overcrowding levels. This suggests that a considerable surplus of train seats would be required to be scheduled for each route (or indeed each train), in order that the targets for standing can be achieved. This is unlikely to be the best use of scarce resources and measures to encourage the spread of demand across the peak (and beyond) may be a more attractive option, although such a surplus of seats over the everyday requirement would perhaps lead to a further increase in rail's mode share as a result of the train becoming a more attractive alternative.

10.1.6 Should the major planned new rail infrastructure projects come to fruition, significant additional demand would be expected. In most cases (e.g. Airdrie to Bathgate; Glasgow Airport rail link, Waverley line), these projects will be accompanied by additional rolling stock and new rail infrastructure. They will provide, therefore, quite significant additional capacity which will assist in meeting targets. Other planned projects, particularly the Edinburgh Airport rail link, will not necessarily result in additional train capacity but would be expected to generate significant numbers of new rail trips. This, and any similar projects, may be of more concern since additional patronage would be added to existing busy trains. However, airport flows are less likely to be peaked at traditional commuting times and, in many cases, will be counter to the main passenger flow.

10.2 Recommendations

10.2.1 While this study offers considerable reassurance that public transport should generally be able to cope with the target passenger increases, or that measures will be implemented to create necessary capacity, a number of recommendations have been made. These are to:

• develop better dialogue between policy makers and those involved in delivering public transport services, particularly bus operators due to the lower degree of direct public sector involvement in bus than rail.
• continue to promote enforceable joint initiatives between authorities and operators, particularly in the bus industry, that will lead to an improved public transport package which is more attractive to prospective passengers and which will provide additional capacity.
• identify means by which peak travel can be spread over a longer time period, to maximise the use of available resources rather than requiring additional resources that will be little used (e.g. by using the Green Travel Plan process to encourage employers to introduce staggered working hours).
• conduct further analysis to identify the practical capacity of the Scottish rail network, rather than relying on a standard reduction factor.
• identify any specific locations where the operation of longer trains cannot be catered for in practice (e.g. due to platform utilisation at terminal stations), despite being theoretically possible.
• implement measures to speed up delivery of capacity enhancement in the rail industry.
• ensure that funding is available for non-commercial additional capacity requirements, should these be deemed necessary from the social perspective or to create a more robust service - this is likely to involve revenue funding from the Scottish Executive or local authorities.
• develop better monitoring by the Scottish Executive, SPT and local authorities of progress towards meeting targets, in particular regular surveys of patronage to include identification of potential step changes brought about by the introduction of new initiatives including, for example, the national minimum concessionary fare.

10.2.2 Certain of these may need only be examined should it be decided that additional peak capacity is desirable or necessary. In addition, there are of course many other factors (e.g. service availability, reliability and punctuality, marketing initiatives) that will influence public transport's mode share, but these were outwith the scope of this study. A final recommendation is that, given the problems of service cancellations during the rail surveys at Aberdeen, there may be benefits from conducting further survey work on peak train services to/from the city to more robustly identify the current situation.

« Previous | Contents | Next »