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The Ability of Public Transport to Cope withTarget Passenger Increases: Final Report

6. KEY ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR BUS TARGETS

6.1 Introduction

6.1.1 Due to the fragmented and deregulated nature of the bus industry, there is limited available information regarding the extent to which the various patronage targets are being worked towards by individual operators. However, the peak period patronage observation surveys analysed in Chapter 4 provide an insight into peak bus occupancy levels and associated issues, albeit just a snapshot of activity on individual days at a sample of locations in each of the four study cities. This chapter summarises the implications of the observed patronage levels on the ability to meet growth targets at peak times. In addition to being vital to the project in itself, this analysis was used as the basis for the discussions with bus operators, local authorities, SPT and the Scottish Executive.

6.2 Implications for Bus in Glasgow

6.2.1 From the bus occupancy surveys, the capacity utilisation rates in the three study time periods were found to be as shown in Table 6.1.

Table 6.1: Observed Bus Occupancy Levels in Glasgow City Centre

6.2.2 Using these city averages, it appears that Glasgow's buses should theoretically be able to cope with the 25% LTS growth target by 2011 within the existing level of service provision, in terms of total bus capacity. The morning peak was observed to have the highest occupancy levels, but even then could cope with a 50% increase in passenger numbers entering the City Centre, albeit requiring full use of all seated plus standing capacity. There appears to be slightly more available capacity in the evening peak period and buses in the inter-peak period were, on average, only one third full in terms of total bus capacity. Considering the seat utilisation, the morning peak would be able to cope with only 19% growth, whereas the other two time periods were observed to offer sufficient spare capacity to cope with the 25% target growth.

6.2.3 It was clear from the locations surveyed, however, that demand is not evenly distributed across all routes and that considerable overloading is already occurring. A number of different routes at different cordon crossing points were observed to have more than half of their buses operating full at peak times, with overloading appearing to be more of a problem in the morning peak. There was even a small amount of overloading observed on two routes in the inter-peak. It should be remembered that the SPT LTS target does not relate specifically to work journeys, so it may be possible to achieve the growth through off-peak patronage increases, where capacity is generally freely available to cater for such growth. However, this may not satisfy other LTS objectives.

6.3 Implications for Bus in Edinburgh

6.3.1 The survey findings from Edinburgh are summarised in Table 6.2, which reveals that seat utilisation was observed to be considerably higher in the morning peak than in the evening.

Table 6.2: Observed Bus Occupancy Levels in Edinburgh City Centre

6.3.2 Given the sustained growth in bus patronage in Edinburgh, it is likely that some progress has already been made on achieving the 26% growth target by 2010 as stated in the City of Edinburgh Council's Local Transport Strategy. Theoretically, all three time periods could cater for this growth on top of the observed patronage, at least in terms of total bus capacity. The aggregate number of spare seats observed in the morning peak could cope with only 15% growth, whereas there are apparently sufficient spare seats to cope with the growth in the other periods.

6.3.3 No Edinburgh services in the inter-peak were found to be operating at or above their seated capacity, but there were significant numbers of full buses in both peak periods at many of the survey locations. As with Glasgow, this reveals significant peaking of capacity utilisation at the current time, both at specific locations and at specific times within the peak. As in Glasgow, it should be borne in mind that the LTS target does not relate specifically to work journeys, so it may be possible to achieve the growth through off-peak patronage increases by making use of the significant available capacity at these times. However, this may not satisfy other LTS objectives.

6.4 Implications for Bus in Aberdeen

6.4.1 The bus occupancy levels observed in Aberdeen are summarised in Table 6.3. Capacity utilisation appears to be fairly consistent in both peak periods and inter-peak patronage as a proportion of seats is far higher than in other cities, reflecting the large fleet of low-floor single decker vehicles in Aberdeen. The Aberdeen LTS target is for at least 43% growth by 2011 (compared to 1991) for journeys to work. Given that there has been continuing decline in bus patronage in Grampian ( see Figure 2.4), it is likely that a higher level of growth will be required.

Table 6.3: Observed Bus Occupancy Levels in Aberdeen City Centre

6.4.2 It is evident that there is insufficient spare capacity, in terms of seats, at peak times to meet the target. In fact, in the inter-peak an increase of 43% from the observed 70% would result in exactly 100% seat utilisation. Aberdeen, however, does have a very high standing provision. Even in the peak periods, an almost doubling in the number of passengers could be catered for within the total bus capacity provided into/out of the city centre. It is debatable, though, whether the likelihood of having to stand on a bus journey to work is likely to tempt motorists out of their cars. In the morning peak, buses with occupancies higher than seat capacity were observed at just one of the three survey locations, with two sites affected in the evening peak. A small amount of overcrowding was observed in the inter-peak, although this is perhaps to be expected given the relatively low seated capacities of many buses in Aberdeen.

6.5 Implications for Bus in Dundee

6.5.1 The bus occupancy survey findings from Dundee are shown in Table 6.4. Of the four cities, Dundee displays the lowest peak occupancy utilisation in both periods. This may, however, be a reflection of the limited amount of surveying, so the findings may not be applicable city-wide.

Table 6.4: Observed Bus Occupancy Levels in Dundee City Centre

6.5.2 T he LTS target is for a 14% increase in bus usage by 2011 for journey to work. It would appear that there is currently sufficient seated capacity for this to take place, although some overcrowding on buses was observed at one site (out of three) in each peak period.

6.6 Summary

6.6.1 This chapter has identified briefly the capabilities of the existing bus systems in each study city to cope with target patronage growth, based upon the observed occupancy survey data. At the aggregate level, according to the survey findings, the Scottish Executive target growth of 5% by 2006 should be able to be accommodated in each of the cities, even at peak times. In terms of the various LTS targets, all can be accommodated within the total bus capacity provided in each city in each peak period, but in certain cases (i.e. Aberdeen in both peaks and both Glasgow and Edinburgh in the morning peak) sufficient seating capacity is not available to absorb the increases. Across all four cities in the peak periods, and occasionally off-peak, overcrowding currently takes place on certain services ( see the analysis in Chapter 4) - this would be expected to worsen as patronage increases, unless additional capacity is provided at the critical times. These findings are developed further in Chapters 8 and 9 in the light of the discussions both with those responsible for setting the targets and those providing bus services.

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