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The Ability of Public Transport to Cope withTarget Passenger Increases: Final Report
3. STUDY METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 The previous section presented the background to this study, with a particular focus on the recent trends in the bus and rail markets. It identified that there are considerable gaps in the knowledge of public transport capacity utilisation in Scotland. As a result, this section presents the key elements of the study methodology designed to develop the understanding of the extent to which existing public transport capacity is utilised and the key issues surrounding the achievement of the various public transport targets.
3.1.2 The methodology is based largely upon three distinct elements:
- bus and rail vehicle occupancy surveys (in conjunction with the analysis of the existing data)
- discussions with local authorities, SPT and the Scottish Executive
- discussions with public transport companies
3.13 The first of these elements was largely intended to supplement the existing data relating to capacity utilisation at peak times. The latter two focus primarily upon the extent to which the targets can be met within the existing level of provision and the identification of the likelihood of additional capacity being provided should this be necessary in order to meet the targets. As stated in the introduction, the emphasis of this study is primarily on movements to/from the city centres of the four study cities (i.e. Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dundee) and on the peak periods (i.e. 0800 to 0900 and 1700 to 1800, Monday to Friday), since this is where spare capacity is generally at a premium. However, where appropriate, the study considers other locations and/or time periods where available capacity may be scarce.
3.2 Analysis of Existing Data and Additional Survey Work
3.2.1 The detailed analysis of the existing data has focused upon the various studies and reports for the rail industry. This has identified the utilisation of the rail infrastructure, together with the constraints posed by line capacity and platform lengths. This analysis can be found in Chapter 5. Patronage data provided by SPT have also been analysed in Chapter 5, with a detailed assessment of the implications of the existing capacity utilisation on the ability to meet target growth being found in Chapter 7. This considers, on a line by line basis, the extent to which there is existing spare capacity at peak times and whether there is scope for meeting the public transport growth targets within this existing provision. In addition to calculating the capacity utilisation for each line in each peak period, a detailed analysis of overloading observed of specific services has also been conducted, to identify the services for which capacity is particularly critical. Due to commercial sensitivities associated with some of the data, only the key findings from this analysis are reported. Two distinct phases of patronage survey work have been undertaken for this study, these being bus occupancy surveys and rail occupancy surveys.
Bus Occupancy Surveys
3.2.2 Bus occupancy surveys were carried out as part of the analysis of current available bus capacity for Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Dundee city centres in the morning, evening and inter-peaks. This was intended to augment data already held and to provide a snapshot of activity at a particular location at a particular time. It may not, therefore, necessarily reflect the general situation, but does provide a basis upon which to build the study. The bus occupancy analysis is split into two sections; bus occupancy surveys to determine current patronage and data from various bus operators providing the total bus capacity crossing each city centre cordon. Occupancy surveys were undertaken at a number of city centre bus stops to determine current patronage. These bus stops were located around an assumed cordon of each city centre. In the morning peak and inter-peak period, 20 locations were surveyed, as follows:
- Glasgow (7 locations)
- Edinburgh (7 locations)
- Aberdeen (3 locations)
- Dundee (3 locations)
3.2.3 In the evening peak, 17 locations were surveyed and these were in:
- Glasgow (6 locations)
- Edinburgh (5 locations)
- Aberdeen (3 locations)
- Dundee (3 locations)
3.2.4 The cordons and survey locations are shown in map form in Appendix 1.
3.2.5 In the morning peak (0800 to 0900) buses entering the cities were surveyed and in the evening peak (1700 to 1800) buses leaving the city were surveyed. In the inter-peak (1000 to 1200), buses entering the cities were surveyed. This provided survey data for a sample of locations around the city centre cordons, on one day at each location. The data collected were bus company, bus fleet number (or vehicle registration mark), an estimate in percentage terms of the seated occupancy of a bus, the number of passengers observed standing and the number of passengers turned away by the driver if the bus was full. Fleet lists were obtained and the data collected were individually matched to the actual seated and standing capacities for the bus observed. To avoid unnecessary additional costs, some data from identical surveys carried out for another Scottish Executive commission were used in addition to surveys carried out specifically for this study.
3.2.6 The cordon crossing points were sent to the relevant bus operators and they provided information on aggregate bus capacities at each point based upon each service's capacity and the frequency at which that service ran during each of the survey periods. These were checked for accuracy by CBP. The observed occupancies at a cordon crossing point were used for that point. For other (unsurveyed) cordon crossing points average observed occupancies across all surveyed points were used.
3.2.7 The full analysis of these bus occupancy surveys can be found in Chapter 4. There were no adverse weather conditions reported by survey staff which would have significantly influenced the numbers of passengers.
Rail Occupancy Surveys
3.2.8 In a similar vein to the bus surveys, rail occupancy surveys were conducted in the three cities outwith the SPT area to provide patronage data. Each location was surveyed once in the morning peak and once in the evening peak. Survey periods were from 0700 to 1000 and 1600 to 1900, providing data for one hour either side of each peak hour, in order to pick up any specific issues on the shoulders of the peak.
3.2.9 For Edinburgh, the surveys were conducted at Haymarket, Musselburgh and Brunstane/Newcraighall stations, forming a cordon around the city centre. In the morning peak, passenger counts were carried out on trains as they arrived at Haymarket from the west (i.e. before passengers alighting at Haymarket had disembarked), to reflect what would generally be the peak loading location, and as trains departed from Musselburgh and Brunstane as they headed for Edinburgh Waverley. In the evening peak, this was reversed, so that trains departing westwards from Haymarket were surveyed as they left, and trains were surveyed as they arrived at Musselburgh and Brunstane/Newcraighall as they headed away from the city centre. Long distance services to/from the East and West Coast Main Lines were not surveyed, due to their limited significance in catering for peak period movements in the Edinburgh area.
3.2.10 In Aberdeen and Dundee, all trains arriving with passengers in the morning peak and leaving with passengers during the evening peak were surveyed. The same three hour survey periods were adopted and counts were taken of the number of passengers on board as trains arrived in the morning and as they left in the evening.
3.2.11 The analysis of the rail occupancy surveys, together with the occupancy data provided by SPT, can be found in Chapter 5.
3.3 Discussions with Public Sector Bodies
3.3.1 In the course of this study, discussions were held with the following organisations involved in implementing transport policy and, in particular, setting targets for public transport patronage:
- Strathclyde Passenger Transport
- City authorities - City of Edinburgh Council, Aberdeen City Council, Dundee City Council, Glasgow City Council
- Neighbouring authorities - West Lothian Council, Midlothian Council, East Lothian Council, Fife Council, Aberdeenshire Council
- Scottish Executive, covering target setting and public transport policy
3.3.2 The list of consultees includes all of the key target setters within the four study cities, together with the Scottish Executive. The majority of the local authorities neighbouring the four cities were also consulted to identify issues relating to cross-border trip-making and more general public transport capacity problems across Scotland.
3.4 Discussions with Public Transport Service Providers
3.4.1 The main focus of the discussions with public transport operators was on the bus companies, given the more limited existing knowledge of bus capacity utilisation than for rail.
Bus Operators
3.4.2 Preliminary discussions were held with the largest operator in each of the four cities, to identify the more quantitative aspects of changing bus service supply and demand. The outcome from these discussions can be found in Section 4.6, designed to provide more detail than the overview provided by the published statistics analysed in Chapter 2. In order to gain a fuller understanding of the issues facing bus operators in attempting to meet growth targets, more detailed discussions were held with most of the main bus operators in Scotland, as follows:
- First Glasgow
- Lothian Buses
- Travel Dundee
- First East Scotland (covering First Aberdeen and First Edinburgh)
- Stagecoach Scotland (covering West Scotland, Fife and Bluebird)
- Strathtay Buses
- Scottish Citylink
3.4.3 The discussions focused on the following issues:
- recent trends in supply and demand for bus travel
- existing capacity provision and utilisation
- changes in capacity provision
- response to targets
- wider issues
3.4.4 The analysis of these interviews can be found in Chapter 9.
Rail Industry
3.4.5 While much of the necessary information for rail was available from previous studies and published data, it was felt appropriate to discuss the key issues relating to the rail patronage targets and existing capacity problems with those involved in the service provision. The issues discussed were similar to those for the bus companies, though with more of a distinction between infrastructure and rolling stock issues. The organisations involved in these discussions were ScotRail and Network Rail (formerly Railtrack (Scotland).
3.4.6 In addition, SPT were consulted ( see also Section 3.3) - this included their direct operation of the Glasgow Underground, together with their key involvement in the provision of ScotRail services within their area. Within the timescale of the project, attempts to gain the input of Great North Eastern Railway and Virgin Trains unfortunately were unsuccessful. While these two rail operators are important on the Anglo-Scottish corridors, their role for internal Scottish rail journeys is of little significance in comparison to that of ScotRail.
3.4.7 The analysis of the rail industry discussions can be found in Chapter 9.
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