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The Ability of Public Transport to Cope withTarget Passenger Increases: Final Report

2. BACKGROUND

2.1 Introduction

2.1.1 In this chapter, the various targets relating to public transport patronage and mode share have been identified. The chapter also summarises the current situation in Scotland relating to bus and rail service provision and patronage, using the available policy documents and statistics, by way of setting the scene for the study.

2.1.2 To identify the range of applicable targets as the base for the subsequent analysis of public transport's ability to cater for growth, Scottish Executive policy documents and the Local Transport Strategies (LTS) from the four city authority areas (plus SPT) that form the focus of this study have been analysed. The range of targets, together with the policy framework within which they have been set, is presented in Section 2.2.

2.1.3 For the bus industry, there are only limited official data sources and little in the way of additional literature and survey materials. The primary source of data on trends in the bus market is the annual Bus and Coach Statistics publication. This review of the bus market can be found in Section 2.3. In the rail industry, there is a greater range of published statistics and reports of relevance to this particular study, primarily from the Scottish Executive, Strategic Rail Authority and Railtrack. Section 2.4 provides discussion and analysis of the general trends in the Scottish rail market, while the detailed analyses of other studies relating to capacity provision can be found in Chapter 5.

2.1.4 In Section 2.5, the recent review of the transport sector labour market in Scotland has been included in this background review. Finally, in Section 2.6, some comment is made about the quantity and quality of available public transport data for Scotland.

2.2 Public Transport Targets and the Policy Background

2.2.1 This section sets out the policy framework within which the various targets for public transport in Scotland have been set and then identifies the range of targets that exist at the national and city authority level. The White Paper, entitled Travel Choices for Scotland (Scottish Office, 1998), established a national policy framework for integrated transport. Key to public transport were the measures to encourage each local authority to develop a Local Transport Strategy (LTS) and the introduction of the Scottish Public Transport Fund. All local authorities did indeed produce an LTS, in which their plans and priorities for an integrated transport policy at their local level were set out. The legislative framework was strengthened by the Transport (Scotland) Act 2001, which promotes regional partnerships, enables local authorities to introduce local congestion charging schemes and promotes partnership working to develop Scottish bus services and facilities through Quality Partnerships and, if necessary, Quality Contracts.

2.2.2 The Transport Delivery Report (Scottish Executive, 2002a) further developed the Scottish integrated transport strategy, outlining the Scottish Executive's vision for the forthcoming 10 years and beyond. Specific objectives and targets, together with resource allocation to meet the vision, were set out in Building a Better Scotland (Scottish Executive, 2002b). The key objective is to promote economic growth, social inclusion and sustainable development via a safe, integrated, effective and efficient transport system. The detailed priorities for delivery during the 2003 to 2006 Spending Review period are:

• increasing capacity and services on the rail network in Scotland - encouraging more use of sustainable transport;
• increasing capacity on the rail network in and around Edinburgh - reducing congestion, stimulating the local economy and improving access to services;
• opening up direct access to the rail network for business and to travellers from Scotland's airports - providing the transport links that the economy needs;
• developing an effective, modern 21st century public transport system for Edinburgh, worthy of a capital city;
• addressing the concerns of business and the wider community in and around Aberdeen by fixing Aberdeen's congestion - stimulating the local economy, strengthening the community;
• tackling inter-urban congestion in central Scotland - providing sustainable transport links;
• accessing economic benefits by opening up the Borders area - helping to sustain rural communities and provide better access to services;
• encouraging the use of buses by more of the Scottish population and tackling social exclusion;
• providing travellers with access to customised information - better quality, more accessible services; and
• making it easier to use public transport in Scotland, helping the vulnerable and disadvantaged to make full use of public transport and reach key services.

2.2.3 In addition, a number of studies have examined the capacity and capability of the rail network, both in its current form and with proposed enhancements and extensions. The most significant for this research have been the various Railtrack capacity studies ( see Chapter 5) and the recently published Scottish Strategic Rail Study (SSRS) (Scottish Executive, 2003), which was available in draft form at the time that this current study was undertaken. The SSRS has developed a range of background forecasts for growth in passenger journeys and passenger miles for the period to 2020 across Scotland and at the city-region level; those adopted for the purposes of this study are the forecasts under the "main scenario".

2.2.4 Table 2.1 summarises the targets from the various sources described above. It should be noted that, strictly speaking, the figures from the SSRS are actually estimates for patronage growth rather than targets to be met. For the purposes of this study, though, it has been assumed that these estimates are to be treated as targets, in that the analysis identifies whether or not there is sufficient public transport capacity available in order to cope with the specified patronage growth. Where targets have been expressed in terms of increasing public transport's mode share from X% to Y%, as is the case for many of the local targets, the required percentage increase in the number of passenger journeys has been calculated on the assumption that the total number of journeys by all modes will remain constant. In addition to the patronage targets shown, the Scottish Executive has published a target to reduce overcrowding on ScotRail services by the end of 2005-06 so no passenger has to stand for more than 10 minutes on any journey (Scottish Executive, 2002c).

2.2.5 The targets set cover a range of different modes over various time periods, making it very difficult to distil them down into a single set. It is important, however, to identify from the range of targets which of them are likely to be the most stringent for particular modes of transport in each of the four cities. As a result, the following annual patronage growth rates can be deduced, assuming 2000 as the base year where not specified in the table.

Table 2.1: Summary of Public Transport Patronage Targets

National Targets

2.2.6 For both bus and rail, the Scottish Executive has set national targets to increase patronage by 5% between 2000/01 and 2006. In terms of annual target increases in the number of passenger journeys, growth of 1% per annum for each of bus and rail will be required. Using the Scottish Strategic Rail Study (SSRS) as a guideline for rail, where the target is for a 39% increase in internal Scottish rail journeys by 2020, the necessary annual target increase in the number of passenger journeys is approximately 1.7% per annum. For rail, therefore, the SSRS target is the more stringent measure.

Glasgow

2.2.7 To meet the Strathclyde PTE 25% growth target for 2011 for public transport as a whole requires an annual increase of just over 2%. A similar, but very slightly lower, annual increase (i.e. just under 2%) is required in order to meet the 46% - 47% predicted growth in rail (to 2020) for both internal Scottish and Anglo-Scottish journeys as set out in the SSRS.

Edinburgh

2.2.8 To meet the LTS target of a 26% increase in total public transport journeys by 2010 requires an annual increase of around 2.3%. An annual increase of 1.5% for internal Scottish rail journeys would lead to the SSRS growth rate of 34% by 2020, with around 1.75% per annum leading to the growth rate for all rail journeys to/from Edinburgh.

Aberdeen

2.2.9 To meet the LTS target for rail, which is a tripling of passenger journeys-to-work from 2% to 6% between 1991 and 2011, an annual increase of just over 5.5% from 1991 is required. An even higher increase will be required from now to 2011 should this rate not have been achieved during the 1990s. This target is far more stringent than the 13% - 17% growth specified in the SSRS. To meet the LTS target for bus (and park and ride), which is for at least 43% growth in passenger journeys, requires an annual increase of around 1.8% from 1991 to 2011 for journeys-to-work. The specific requirement for the period from 2000 until 2011 will depend upon progress during the 1990s, but this is not yet known. Aberdeen City Council will soon be analysing the 2001 census data to determine the extent of any progress towards either LTS target in the previous decade ( see Section 8.7).

Dundee

2.2.10 To meet the LTS 14% growth target for bus by 2011 requires an annual increase of around 1.25% for journeys-to-work. For the SSRS targets, an annual increase of around 0.8% for internal Scottish rail journeys would lead to the growth rate of 18% by 2020, while just under 1% per annum would result in the 21% growth rate for all rail journeys in the same time period.

2.3 Trends in the Scottish Bus Market

2.3.1 Bus services in Scotland are provided by a wide range of operators, extending from the big multi-national public transport companies such as First Group, Stagecoach and National Express to small independent operators and Royal Mail. The large multi-national companies tend to dominate in local provision in the major cities, with First Group being dominant in Glasgow and Aberdeen and National Express in Dundee (i.e. Travel Dundee). Lothian Buses, an independent operator, dominates in Edinburgh. Inter-urban services are provided mainly by Scottish Citylink or local bus operators. In each city, there are other significant operators who have smaller market shares. Stagecoach has a presence in all four cities, while First in Edinburgh is the secondary operator in the capital city. Arriva West Scotland and several small independent operators also serve the Glasgow area.

2.3.2 In the context of capacity utilisation, it is necessary to examine the trends in both the supply of bus capacity and the level of utilisation of this capacity. The principal source of statistics on bus service provision and usage in Scotland is the annual Scottish Bus and Coach Statistics publication, produced by the Scottish Executive. By way of background for this study, the relevant statistics and issues from the most recent edition (Scottish Executive, 2002d) are summarised here. Most of the statistics are provided at the national level, though there are estimates of some statistics at the level of the former Scottish regions.

National Trends

2.3.3 Figure 2.1 displays the principal supply-side trend, this being the distance travelled by bus services in Scotland over the last decade. There has been a 7% increase in the distance travelled by all bus services between 1990/91 and 2000/01 to 535 million vehicle kilometres; there have been significant fluctuations within this, notably an 8% increase between 1999/00 and 2000/01 following two years of decline.

Figure 2.1: Distance Travelled by Bus Services (Scotland)

2.3.4 The main focus of this study is on local bus services, particularly in Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dundee. For local services throughout Scotland, there has been an 11% increase between 1990/91 and 2000/01 to 373 million vehicle kilometres, though only a 2% increase between the two most recent years. In itself, the vehicle kilometres travelled statistic does not reveal the total capacity provided on local bus services since this will also depend upon the size and type of the vehicles being used. Some limited statistics are available relating to the composition of the vehicle fleet at the aggregate Scottish level. There has been a slight upward trend in the number of registered buses and coaches in Scotland between 1990/91 and 2000/01, with a 7% increase in the fleet over this period. However, the total fleet size has been largely static over the last five years. Within this fleet total, there have been major changes in the composition of the fleet, as revealed in Table 2.2.

Table 2.2: Composition of the Scottish Bus and Coach Fleet (% of Vehicles)

2.3.5 While the notes to the statistics emphasise that they should be treated only as a guide, it is evident nonetheless that there has been a dramatic reduction in the proportion of the bus fleet comprised of double deckers. Single deckers of between 17 and 35 seats increased their share in the early 1990s. The main growth in recent years, however, has been in single deckers of at least 36 seats, most likely linked to the rapid growth of low-floor single decker vehicles. There are, unfortunately, no specific published statistics regarding the capacity of the fleet, but the switch away from double deckers, in the absence of a significant increase in total fleet size, would be likely to have resulted in a decline in the total fleet capacity, especially seated capacity. This is investigated in more detail later in the report.

2.3.6 Figure 2.2 reveals the main demand-side trend from the published statistics, this being the number of passenger journeys on local bus services in Scotland. Considering the decade as a whole, there has been a 26% decrease in the number of passenger journeys to 436 million in 2000/01. However, this masks a constant period of decline between 1990/91 and 1998/99, where the total reduced by 29%, followed by two consecutive years of growth. The number of passenger journeys in 2000/01 was 6% higher than in 1998/99.

Figure 2.2: Passenger Journeys on Local Bus Services (Scotland)

2.3.7 No statistics are presented relating to the average passenger journey length, which is the other key factor in addition to the absolute number of passenger journeys and vehicle size that will influence occupancy levels.

Regional Trends

2.3.8 This section focuses upon the limited statistics available relating to local bus service provision and patronage in the regions that include the four cities upon which this study is focused. It is important to realise that these data may not be statistically rigorous and that they include the entire former region area and not just the principal city.

2.3.9 Figure 2.3 shows the estimated vehicle kilometres operated in each of the regions between 1990/91 and 2000/01. During this decade, the distance travelled in Strathclyde increased by 16%, in excess of the 11% national average. The growth rate in Grampian matched the national average, while Tayside was stagnant and Lothian experienced a 2% decline. Comparison between 1996/97 and 2000/01 reveals an increase in all areas except Grampian, though it has witnessed growth in the most recent year. It should be remembered that trends in vehicle kilometres do not necessarily correlate directly with capacity provided due to changes in the composition of the vehicle fleet.

Figure 2.3: Local Bus Services in Study Regions (Estimated Vehicle Kilometres)

2.3.10 Figure 2.4 reveals the trend in the number of passenger journeys in each of the four former region areas. In line with the national trend, all four regions experienced significant decline in passenger journeys between 1990/91 and 2000/01. Only Lothian's rate of decline, at 23%, was less than the Scottish average, although Strathclyde's decline was almost identical to the average. Grampian and Tayside experienced declines of 33% and 36% respectively during the decade.

Figure 2.4: Local Bus Services in Study Regions (Estimated Passenger Journeys)

2.3.11 Each of Strathclyde, Lothian and Tayside have witnessed a reversal in the decline in the last two years, with increased passenger numbers of 10%, 14% and 7% respectively between 1998/99 and 2000/01. However the decline has continued in Grampian, amounting to 6% in the last two years.

2.4 Trends in the Scottish Rail Market

2.4.1 With the exception of the Glasgow Underground, all passenger rail services in Scotland have been operated by the private sector, on a franchised basis, since 1997. Virtually all internal Scottish passenger services are provided by ScotRail, while Anglo-Scottish services are generally provided by Great North Eastern Railway (GNER) or Virgin Trains. The rail infrastructure itself is owned by Network Rail (formerly Railtrack), which is also responsible for the allocation of train paths on the national network.

National Rail Network

2.4.2 The main focus of this section is on ScotRail as service provider, together with some analysis of the rail infrastructure. In respect of the latter, there has been virtually no change in the length of rail network open to traffic in the last 10 years. Figure 2.5 shows that there has been a 6% increase in the number of railway stations in the last decade, with 20 new stations. Three quarters of this increase occurred in the first few years, prior to rail privatisation with just five new stations being opened between 1994/95 and 2001/02, all on existing railway lines.

Figure 2.5: Number of Passenger Railway Stations

2.4.3 In contrast to the fairly static nature of the rail infrastructure, there has been considerable change in the train mileage operated and in the patronage of rail services in the last decade. Figure 2.6 displays the trend in scheduled train miles on ScotRail services between 1996/97, the earliest year for which data are available, and 2001/02. This shows that there has been an 18% increase in scheduled train miles from 19.96 million miles to 23.46 million miles during this period.

Figure 2.6: Scheduled Train Miles Operated by ScotRail

2.4.4 As Figure 2.7 reveals, 60.75 million passenger journeys were made 21% more passenger journeys were made on ScotRail services in 2001/02, 21% higher than in 1992/93. The rate of increase would likely have been even greater had there not been industrial action during the most recent year, which significantly affected the level of service provided.

Figure 2.7: Passenger Journeys on ScotRail Services

2.4.5 Table 2.3 summarises the changes in passenger journeys, passenger miles and scheduled train miles for ScotRail for the period from 1996/97 to 2000/01, the only period for which data are provided for all three measures and where industrial action was not a factor.

Table 2.3: Comparison of Key Trends for ScotRail Services

2.4.6 It can be seen that both demand measures (i.e. passenger journeys and passenger miles) have increased at a greater rate than the increase in scheduled train miles. It is not possible from these three measures to identify the capacity utilisation, since this will be dependent on train length and type of rolling stock used. The average passenger journey distance decreased from 19.65 miles in 1996/97 to 19.07 miles in 2000/01, but over the longer time period since 1994/95 to 2001/02, the growth in passenger miles was almost double that in passenger journeys, which suggests that there may be a longer-term upward trend in average journey length. If a fixed number of passengers travel further on average, then the impacts on capacity utilisation will be greater in an aggregate sense. From the data available, however, it is extremely difficult to discern any capacity utilisation impacts, but it is clear that both the supply (in terms of train miles) and the demand (in terms of journeys and passenger miles) have been increasing over recent years.

2.4.7 No specific published data are available for the supply of cross-border passenger rail services, but Figure 2.8 shows the trends in passenger numbers for these services. There has been a 29% increase in the number of cross-border passenger journeys since 1991/92, though there has been an apparent decline in the number of journeys in each of the last two years, perhaps as a result of the network disruption following the Hatfield crash, which affected long distance services to a far greater extent than internal Scottish ones.

Figure 2.8: Cross-Border Rail Passenger Journeys

2.4.8 Taking into account the network disruption in 2000/01 and 2001/02, caused by speed restrictions and industrial action, it is quite clear that demand for rail services has been increasing significantly in recent years. To a large extent, it appears that this has been matched by an increase in capacity provided through an increase in scheduled train miles, though the published statistics are limited in this respect. Issues relating to rail capacity provision and utilisation are analysed in far greater depth in Section 5, incorporating the findings from detailed capacity studies and additional survey work for this study.

Glasgow Underground

2.4.9 Figures 2.9 and 2.10 respectively display the recent supply and demand trends for the Glasgow Underground network.

Figure 2.9: Glasgow Underground: Loaded Train Kilometres

Figure 2.10: Glasgow Underground: Passenger Journeys

2.4.10 With a total of 1,161 thousand loaded train kilometres operated in 2000/01 compared to 1,122 thousand kilometres in 1990/91, there was a 3% increase over the decade - there was, however, a slight decline from the peak of 1,180 thousand kilometres in 1999/00. The number of vehicles in service on the Glasgow Underground increased from 33 in 1991/92 to 41 in 1992/93. Should the daily rolling stock utilisation rate have remained constant, this would suggest that there has been an increase of around 25% in capacity provided in the last decade - further analysis of the Glasgow Underground system can be found in Section 9.8.

2.4.11 At 14.4 million, the number of passenger journeys was 5% higher in 2000/01 than in 1990/91, when there were 13.7 million journeys. There has been considerable annual fluctuation during the decade between a low of 13.5 million passenger journeys in 1992/93 and a high of 14.7 million passenger journeys in 1994/95. In most years, annual totals have been in excess of 14 million since 1993/94 and lower than 14 million prior to then.

2.5 Transport Sector Labour Market in Scotland

2.5.1 Public transport provision relies heavily on the availability of a sufficiently large labour force, with specific qualifications required for different duties. In addition to the requirement for front-line operating staff (e.g. drivers, guards), public transport operations rely upon a wide range of generally unseen workers, including maintenance, administration, service planning and managerial staff. A lack of sufficient numbers of staff qualified in any of these areas may potentially constrain the capacity that can be provided. A small but specific element of this study is therefore the consideration of the effects of changes in the labour market on the achievability of the public transport targets. The transport sector labour market in Scotland was the subject of a review conducted on behalf of the Scottish Executive and the Transport Skills Alliance (The Mackinnon Partnership, 2002). While much of the focus of this review is outwith the scope of this study, in that it considered aviation, ports and the road haulage industry in addition to land public transport, the main findings of relevance are presented here.

2.5.2 In the bus and coach industry, staff turnover was identified as a particular issue, with annual turnover rates of up to 30%. One third of companies surveyed stated that they did not have sufficient drivers for optimal performance, with understaffing of between 8% and 33%. To date, it appears that such understaffing has not led to services being withdrawn or cancelled, but the report states that "most companies thought they would be unable to get enough employees to support any large scale expansion of services and a number were concerned about the implications of new EU working time regulations" (p.33). The study found that there were no other significant labour market problems in other aspects of bus and coach operations.

2.5.3 In the rail industry, the study found that the greatest issue was a shortage of skilled technicians and engineers, which is a UK-wide problem. Future trends are likely to be dependent upon changes in the structure of the industry, but rolling stock maintenance was identified as requiring the greatest number of staff per annum. The report finds that "the industry needs to attract highly skilled technicians and engineers to meet its needs but there are indications that this is increasingly difficult" (p.43).

2.5.4 Should these issues relating to labour market problems come to fruition, it is possible that they may constrain the growth of public transport capacity provision. While the main concerns would be expected to be the impacts on the provision of additional capacity through service frequency enhancements, since these require additional front-line operating staff, it is possible that other potential means by which capacity can be increased (e.g. operating longer trains) may be constrained by the lack of technicians and engineers to maintain the additional vehicles. These issues were raised in discussions with the industry - see Chapter 9 for further details.

2.6 Availability of Data

2.6.1 The key trends in the Scottish public transport sector have been presented in this chapter. More detailed analysis of available data for the rail industry can be found in Chapter 5. There have been a number of issues relating to the availability of data, which are summarised here, prior to discussing the methodology adopted for this study.

2.6.2 In general terms, more and better quality data were available for the rail industry (particularly relating to infrastructure) than for bus operations. The Railtrack studies referred to earlier, and discussed in detail in Section 5, provided a sound basis for analysis of the potential supply-side constraints. Comprehensive on-train count data and train length information from the Rail Counts Programme 2000/01 were provided by SPT, covering all local routes within their area. These data were generally well-suited to the study requirements, albeit with some caveats relating to how representative the data were of the general situation. Elsewhere on the ScotRail network, on-train count data of sufficient quality were not available for analysis, creating a need for some survey work covering Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dundee services. ScotRail provided train length data for most of the non-SPT network, covering both the existing situation and that planned following the introduction of new rolling stock in the next 12-18 months.

2.6.3 For the bus industry, very little data in addition to that collected for Scottish Transport Statistics were available. Some bus occupancy survey data already held from a previous Scottish Executive study were available, but there was an identified need for additional surveys to be conducted so as to better understand the base position, in addition to obtaining general data from the key bus operators.

2.7 Summary

2.7.1 This chapter has presented the background to the study. First, it set out the policy context and identified the various public transport targets that exist in Scotland. This included the national bus and rail targets set by the Scottish Executive, the local targets set by local authorities in their Local Transport Strategies and the rail patronage forecasts from the Scottish Strategic Rail Study. When converted to a required annual patronage increase in order that the targets be met, the local targets (and sometimes the SSRS forecasts) tend to be more stringent than the national ones set by the Scottish Executive. The implications of these targets, expected growth rates and annual patronage increases are analysed in detail in Chapters 6 to 9.

2.7.2 The bulk of the chapter then considered the recent trends in the Scottish public transport market, firstly for bus and then for rail. For bus, there have been recent increases in both the distance operated by and the number of passenger journeys on local bus services, following a sustained period of decline in patronage and fairly stable total distance operated. For the city-regions upon which this study is primarily focused, only Grampian experienced a decline in patronage in the most recent period (i.e. between 1999/00 and 2000/01). For the national rail network, the analysis has shown that there has been very little change in the infrastructure in recent years, but that there has been considerable growth in each train miles, passenger journeys and passenger miles since privatisation in the mid-1990s. After a period of sustained growth, rail patronage (both for ScotRail and Anglo-Scottish routes) has dipped more recently, although this may well have been caused by the post-Hatfield speed restrictions and the ScotRail industrial action rather than any underlying change in demand. On the Glasgow Underground, there have been fluctuations both in supply and demand throughout the decade under analysis.

2.7.3 The chapter also briefly considered labour issues and identified the gaps in public transport data, the latter of which is primarily an issue for bus services. Due to the way in which the statistics are collected and analysed, and in particular the lack of data relating to the average passenger journey distance, it is not possible to identify the occupancy levels of bus services at even an aggregate level. Further, the omission of "service overcrowding/inability to get on full vehicles" as a factor in the Scottish Household Survey questions reported in the bus statistics means that no information on the scale of any such problem is provided. The next chapter discusses the methodology adopted to gather the necessary additional information in order that the study objectives could be met.

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