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THE SPEEDING DRIVER: WHO, HOW AND WHY?

COMPARISION WITH RESULTS OF 1996 ANALYSIS

Effects of Sex

Severity of offence

5.59 Table 5.9 summarises the results of the 1996 and 2002 analyses with respect to severity of offence. The propensity to speed is defined as the observed number of offenders in a particular category divided by the expected number of offenders in that category.

Table 5.9: Propensity to commit offences of different severity in each study.

5.60 The results indicate that, with respect to 1996, there were relatively more females receiving conditional offers in 2002. However, the figures for female drivers were still lower than would be expected if the offence rate were equal for both sexes. That is, the 'gap' between males and females has narrowed.

5.61 The two studies had very similar results with regard to Police Reports. When considering all offences, there is some evidence that the propensity for females to offend has increased, while the propensity for males to offend has decreased slightly.

Road type

5.62 With regard to road type, the results of the two studies are very similar as shown in Figure 5.14.

Figure 5.14: Propensity for males and females to speed on different road types

Note: NBU = Non-built up roads, BU = Built up roads

5.63 The results seem to indicate that the offence propensity rates for females has increased on non-motorway roads since the 1996 study. There is no evidence of any change on Motorways.

Time period

5.64 The results of the two studies are shown in Figure 5.15.

Figure 5.15: Propensity for males and females to speed by time period

5.65 The results indicate that in all time periods the propensity for female drivers to commit an offence has increased while that for male drivers has decreased. The 1996 study showed that males were more likely to commit offences during the weekday peak and inter-peak. The 2002 study indicates that this is still true. However, the level is far less pronounced.

Effect of Age

5.66 The results of the two studies are shown in Figures 5.16, 5.17 and 5.18.

Figure 5.16: Propensity to receive conditional offers by age

Figure 5.17: Propensity to receive Police Reports by age

Figure 5.18: Propensity for all offences by age

5.67 For the more serious offences (i.e. Police reports), the results from the 1996 and 2002 studies are very similar (Figure 5.17). For less serious offences (i.e. Conditional offers) the results indicate that in 2002 the most likely offenders came from the 30 to 39 year old age range, as opposed to the 21 to 25 age range from the 1996 study Figure 5.16). The effect is to make the profile of overall offences more consistent by age than it was before.

5.68 In the 2002 study there was a very strong propensity (2.35) for 16 to 20 year olds to commit offences on Motorways compared with the 1996 study (1.10). With regard to time period, the results of the two studies were broadly similar as shown in Table 5.8. For both studies, the highest propensity to speed in the Weekday peak and Weekday inter-peak was exhibited by 21 to 25 year olds. With regard to Weekends, the 1996 study had 26 to 29 year olds as the worst offenders. However, in the 2002 study, the 16 to 20 and21 to 25 year olds were the worst offenders.

Table 5.8: Selected results from 1996 and 2002 studies

Conclusions

5.69 The results of the 1996 study indicated that males had a higher propensity to offend than females. This was also found to be the case in the 2002 study. However, the difference in offence rates between males and females was found to be narrower in the current study. This is mainly because there is no difference between male and females for minor offences. That is, males and females are equally likely to receive conditional offers. They are also equally likely to be caught speeding by camera technology.

5.70 The highest propensity to offend occurs on built-up roads. For each category of road, males still had a higher propensity to offend than females. However, on built-up roads, the offence rate for females was almost as great as that for males.

5.71 With regard to time period, the greatest propensity to offend occurred during the weekday inter-peak. Once again, males were the worst offenders during this time.

5.72 The highest propensity to offend seriously was exhibited by 21 to 25 year olds followed by 16 to 20 year olds. There is a particular problem with 16 to 20 year olds on Motorways, and with this group during the Evening and overnight period.

5.73 Comparison of the 2002 study results and the 1996 study results suggests that the percentage of non-manual occupation drivers caught speeding has been almost halved, while the percentage of manual unskilled being caught has increased dramatically. There has also been a dramatic increase in the percentage of offenders who are unemployed.

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