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THE SPEEDING DRIVER: WHO, HOW AND WHY?
Road Type
5.35 Speeding offences on urban roads are the most over-represented with reference to the mileage driven on them. Rural roads have the fewest offences by this measure. These differences may simply reflect different levels of enforcement on different types of road. Similar results are obtained from the 1996 model and NTS data as shown in Figures 5.5 and 5.6. (NBU = Non built-up urban, BU = built up urban.)
Figure 5.5: Expected and Observed offences by road type using the 1996 model
Figure 5.6: Expected and Observed offences by road type using Scottish NTS data
5.36 Using the 1996 model, men are more likely than women to be stopped for speeding whatever the type of road. The difference is most pronounced on rural roads, where they are almost twice as likely as women to be stopped per mile travelled. On motorways they are 75% more likely to be stopped per mile driven, but on urban roads only 15% more likely to be stopped (Figure 5.7).
Figure 5.7: Expected and observed male and female offences by road type using the 1996 model
Time Period
5.37 This analysis is based on the 1996 model only, because the NTS does not present this data broken down by male and female. It only presents overall figures. The day was split into time periods representing peaks (07:00 to 08:59 and 16:00 to 17:59), inter-peaks (09:00 to 15:59) and night (18:00 to 06:59). The number of trips in progress at these times was taken from the NTS. Results showed that people are 60% more likely to be caught speeding in inter-peak periods than at other times taking into account the number of trips in progress during each period (Figure 5.8). Drivers are least likely to be caught speeding during peak periods. This may be because heavy traffic effectively prevents speeding.
5.38 There were almost three times as many offences recorded on Mondays than on other weekdays. This is especially surprising since, according to the NTS, Mondays have the lowest average mileage. It is possible that this result arises because records were not extracted randomly from the police databases or enforcement patterns vary through the week.
5.39 Males are 50% more likely to be caught speeding per mile driven than women in inter-peak periods. This may be partly because mileage figures do not take account of a large number of non-personal trips made at this time, for example deliveries. At other times the difference is less marked.
Figure 5.8: Propensity for males and females to speed by time period - 1996 model
Effect of age
5.40 The peak age for being caught speeding is 21 to 29 years. This group is four times more likely to be caught speeding than those aged 70 plus.
Severity of offence
5.41 Using the 1996 model, younger drivers (17 to 20 and 21 to 29) are far more likely to be given Police Reports than any other group. They are 15 times more likely to receive a police report than someone aged 70 plus. This result is shown in Figure 5.9.
5.42 Similar results are gained from the Scottish NTS data as shown in Figure 5.10. It should be noted that the age bands displayed in Figures 5.9 and 5.10 are different. This is because different age bands have been used in the 1996 model and NTS data.
Figure 5.9: Propensity to speed by age - 1996 model
Figure 5.10: Propensity to speed by age - Scottish NTS
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