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Evaluation Of Bikesafe Scotland

CHAPTER TWO: MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENTS IN SCOTLAND AND THE UK

2.1 This chapter examines trends and patterns relating to motorcycle accidents in Scotland. It considers factors such as the age of motorcyclists involved in accidents, the type of roads on which accidents occur and the type of manouveres motorcyclists are carrying out when they become involved in accidents. The chapter also reviews some general trends in motorcycling in the UK, and briefly outlines elements of the UK's road safety strategy that relate specifically to motorcyclists. Unless otherwise stated, all the accident statistics presented in this chapter are taken from Road Accidents Scotland 2001 (Scottish Executive, 2002).

Motorcycle accidents in Scotland since 1991

2.2 In recent years there has been an increase in the number of motorcyclists killed or injured on Scotland's roads. Between 1990 and 1996, the number of deaths and injuries steadily declined, but from 1997 onwards the casualty figures have increased year on year. 2001 saw 1,174 motorcycle casualties in Scotland, the highest figure since 1992. Figure 2.1 shows the number of motorcyclists involved in injury accidents since 1991.

Figure 2.1: Motorcyle ³casualties in Scotland by year (number of casualties)

Source: Road Accidents Scotland 2001 (Scottish Executive, 2002)

2.3 A similar trend appears in the motorcycle casualty figures for the UK as a whole, as shown in Figure 2.2. While overall numbers of casualties fell until 1996, they have been increasing year on year since 1997, and in 2001 there were 28,810 motorcyclist or passenger casualties, compared with 23,133 in 1996.

Figure 2.2: Motorcycle casualties in the UK by year (number of casualties)

Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain: 2002 Edition (DfT, 2002)

2.4 Without figures detailing the numbers of motorcycles in Scotland and the UK and the volume of motorcycle traffic on the road, it is not possible to say whether motorcycle casualties have increased relative to the number of motorcyclists. In fact, figures from Scottish Transport Statistics 2001 (Scottish Executive, 2002) show that the number of motorcycles licenced in Scotland fell slightly in the early 1990s and then rose sharply again from 1995 (see Figure 2.3).

2.5 This may mean that the pattern of accidents shown above reflects changes in the number of motorcycles on Scotland's roads. In fact, while the number of motorcycle casualties increased by 38% from 1995 to 2000, the number of motorcycles licenced increased by 63%. This means that while the number of accidents are increasing year on year, they are not increasing at the same rate as the number of motorcycles.

Figure 2.3: Motorcycles licenced in Scotland by year (thousands)

Source: Scottish Executive (2002) Scottish Transport Statistics 2001

2.6 In the UK as a whole, between 1989/1991 and 1999/2001, the percentage of households in Great Britain with at least one motorcycle fell from 3.5% to 2.8% (DfT, 2003). However, there has recently been an increase in motorcycle registrations and traffic, which is just starting to show in the National Travel Survey. This recent increase may go some way to explaining the higher casualty figures for motorcyclists in the UK as a whole since 1996/7.

2.7 Motorcyclists account for a high proportion of casualties relative to their numbers. According to 1999 figures from the Department for Environment, Transport and the Regions, despite accounting for less than 1% of all road traffic, motorcycles are involved in 16% of the deaths and serious injuries that occur on the road in Great Britain. ⁴

2.8 Figures 2.4 and 2.5 show the numbers of fatal and serious motorcycle casualties in Scotland over the last 10 years. The number of fatal and serious motorcycle casualties has also risen since the low-point of the mid-1990s. The number of deaths in 2001 (49) was 26% higher than the number 10 years earlier (39). Although the number of all fatal and serious motorcycle casualties was lower in 2001 than it was a decade ago, numbers have again been increasing steadily since a low point in 1996.

Figure 2.4: Fatal motorcycle accidents in Scotland by year (number of fatalities)

Source: Road Accidents Scotland 2001 (Scottish Executive, 2002)

Figure 2.5: Fatal and serious motorcycle accidents in Scotland by year (number of casualties)

Source: Road Accidents Scotland 2001 (Scottish Executive, 2002)

Age of motorcyclists involved in injury accidents

2.9 Several studies have suggested that motorcycling is increasingly popular amongst older males (e.g. Glamser, 1999). Many of them are returning to motorcycling in their 30s and 40s having not ridden since their youth. A number of them are beginning to ride for the first time. A study in America found that the typical buyer of a new bike was a 42 year old male, with an annual income of some $67,000 (LA Times, 2001), while a 1998 report from the American Motorcycle Industry Council found that the median age of a motorcyclist was 38 years - up from 24 years in 1980 (MIC, 1998). Riders that fit this profile are often referred to as 'Born Again Bikers' or, less commonly, 'rubies' (rich urban bikers).

2.10 Various explanations have been put forward for this increase in older motorcyclists (see Glamser, 1999). Some associate it with a desire to participate in risk-taking activities when one's daily life does not provide enough stimulation. Others have suggested that it is connected with growing middle-class prosperity - motorcycling is something these men have perhaps been interested in for many years, and they now have the necessary income to purchase a bike of their own.

2.11 Figures from the Scottish Executive Transport Statistics Division show that, increasingly, it is older motorcyclists who are involved in accidents. Table 2.1 shows the number of motorcyclist casualties in Scotland since 1991 by age of casualty. In 1991, it was the 16-22 age group that was involved in most motorcycle accidents in Scotland. By 2001, however, the 30-39 age group had emerged as the leading victims of motorcycle accident involvement. While 30-39 year olds accounted for just 14% of all motorcycle casualties in 1991, by 2001 they accounted for 35%. It is worth noting, however, that casualties have risen across all age groups since 1997 with the exception of 23-29 year olds and those aged over 60.

2.12 Similar trends have been noted in other countries. In the United States, analysis of federal statistics shows that from 1994-99, deaths among bikers aged 35 and older rose by 59%. During the same period, fatalities fell by 22% among those 34 and younger. ⁵

Table 2.1: Number of motorcyclists casualties by age (number of casualties)

Source: data from the Scottish Executive Transport Statistics Branch, unpublished

Type of manoeuvre

2.13 Table 2.2 shows the types of manoeuvre being performed by motorcyclists at the time they become involved in accidents. Waiting and going ahead is the most common manoeuvre being performed at the time of an accident in both built-up and non built-up areas. ⁶Between 1997 and 2001 on average there were 624 accidents a year involving waiting and going ahead (401 in built up areas and 223 in non built-up areas). Accidents involving going round a bend are much more common in non-built-up areas compared with built-up areas. Between 1997 and 2001 there were an average of 188 accidents a year involving going round a bend in non-built-up areas compared with 39 in built-up areas. This emphasises the importance of cornering skills when riding on more open roads.

Table 2.2: Type of manoeuvre by built-up/non-built up roads (number of accidents - 1997-2001 average)

Built-up and non-built-up areas

2.14 Just over half (52%) of all accidents between 1997 and 2001 occurred in built-up areas. However, a recent TRL report noted that, proportionally, motorcycle accidents in non-built-up areas are on the increase (Lynam et al, 2001). In 2001, accidents in non-built-up areas accounted for 48% of all motorcycle casualties, compared with 34% in 1991. Accidents in non-built-up areas are also more likely to be fatal or serious than accidents in built-up areas. Table 2.3 shows the numbers of fatal and serious accidents in built-up and non-built up areas over the last 10 years.

Table 2.3: Casualties by year and severity, separately for built-up and non-built up roads (number of accidents)

2.15 Fatal and serious motorcycle accidents are also more likely to occur on roads with higher speed limits, reflecting the greater severity of accidents in non-built up areas. Between 1997 and 2001, an average of 30 deaths occurred each year on roads with a speed limit of 60mph, compared with 6 on 30mph roads and 2 on 70mph roads. This suggests that fatalities are most common on single carriageway 'country' roads.

Police force area

2.16 Figure 2.2 breaks down motorcycle casualties by the Police force area in which the accident occurred. The numbers involved are in most cases too small to analyse accident trends in individual areas. Not surprisingly, the greatest number of accidents occur in the highly populated areas of Strathclyde and Lothian and Borders.

Table 2.4: Motorcycle casualties by police force area

Source: Scottish Executive Transport Statistics Division, unpublished information

Time of year

2.17 Figure 2.6 shows the 1997-2001 average number of motorcycle casualties by the month of the year in which accidents occur. The pattern of accidents closely follows the motorcycle season (April to September), with the highest number of accidents occurring in the peak motorcycling month of August.

Figure 2.6: Motorcycle casualties by month, 1997-2001 average (number of casualties)

Additional factors involved in fatal motorcycle accidents

2.18 A recent report by the Transport Research Laboratory (Lynam et al, 2001) examined 717 police files of fatal accidents involving motorcycles in order to analyse contributory factors. The police files related primarily to accidents occurring between 1986 and 1995 in England and Wales.

2.19 The report found that while 41% of fatal motorcycle accidents involved collision between one or more cars and a motorcyclist, 29% involved a motorcyclist crashing without the active involvement of other road users. A further 15% involved collision with a vehicle larger than a car, while 12% involved collision with a pedestrian. Around 60% of accidents involving a car or larger vehicle were considered to be principally the fault of the motorcyclist, while the driver of the other vehicle was considered to be principally responsible in about 40% of these collisions.

2.20 Tables 2.5 and 2.6, below, show the main precipitating factors and contributory factors in fatal accidents where the motorcyclists were judged to be principally responsible across built-up and non built-up roads. The precipitating factor is the main reason that led directly to the accident, while contributory factors are the causes of the precipitating factor. Any accident can have up to four contributory factors.

2.21 "Loss of control" was the most common precipitating factor in fatal accidents where the motorcyclists was primarily responsible. Sixty-five per cent of all fatal accidents on non built-up areas and 55% of fatal accidents on built-up roads came about as a result of the rider losing control of the vehicle. Excessive speed was a contributory factor in around a fifth of all fatal accidents, and around 15% of all fatal accidents involved some form of careless, thoughtless or reckless behaviour on the motorcyclist's behalf.

Table 2.5: Most frequent precipitating factors in two-wheeled motor vehicle accidents where motorcyclists were judged to be principally responsible

Source: Lynam et al, 2001

Table 2.6: Most frequent contributory factors in two-wheeled motor vehicle

accidents where motorcyclists were judged to be principally responsible

Source: Lynam et al, 2001

2.22 Where loss of control of the vehicle was identified as the precipitating factor, driving conditions were examined in greater detail. The TRL report stated that "[o]ver three-quarters of the accidents occurred during fine weather on dry roads" (Lynam et al, 2001, p8). There is, therefore, no evidence for the contention that wet and slippery road surfaces are mainly responsible for riders losing control of their motorcycle.

2.23 Inexperience was highlighted as a key factor where motorcyclists hit a kerb or failed to negotiate a bend properly. Inexperienced riders also had accidents resulting from situations they came on unexpectedly because of their speed.

2.24 The main precipitating factors in accidents where the non-rider was judged mainly responsible were "failed to give way" and "poor turn/manoeuvre". These were often linked with failure to observe satisfactorily, careless, thoughtless or reckless behaviour, or failure to judge the rider's path or speed. These kinds of driving behaviour were highlighted in a recent DTLR TV campaign ('Mirror'), which encourages cooperation between motorcyclists and drivers, urging them to "look out for each other".

General trends in motorcycling in Great Britain

2.25 Two recent Department for Transport factsheets (Broadley, 2002 and DfT, 2003) highlight various trends in motorcycling in Great Britain over the last two decades which may be of relevance to the above trends in motorcycle accident statistics.

2.26 Over the last 10 years, the number of motorbikes with engine sizes of 500cc and over have risen dramatically in the period 1989-1999. In 1989, bikes of 500cc and over numbered some 131,000, or 15% of all bikes registered; by 1999, this figure had risen to 371,000, accounting for almost a half of all bikes registered. This increase occurred mainly in the latter half of the 1990s. It is worth noting that the Direct Access scheme was introduced in the UK in 1997.

2.27 The average length of a motorcycle trip has increased by two thirds from 1985/86 to 1997/1999, from 5.6 miles to 9.3 miles, and is now 10% longer than the average trip of a car driver. This may be related to the increase in ownership of more powerful bikes, since the average distance travelled in a year increases with size of bike, from 2,270 miles for motorcycles of 50cc and less to 4,290 miles a year for motorcycles of over 500cc.

UK Road Safety Strategy

2.28 In 2000, the Department for the Environment, Transport and the Regions, the Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales launched Tomorrows roads: safer for everyone - The Government's safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010 (DfT, 2000), which devotes an entire chapter to safer motorcycling. The joint strategy acknowledged that the casualty rate amongst motorcyclists was rising after years of steady decline, and outlined proposals for addressing this problem. Suggested actions relating to the areas of safety education and training include:

• introducing improved basic training and testing for learner motorcyclists
• introducing a separate CBT test for mopeds
• making the motorcycle theory test compulsory for all motorcyclists. Previously, holders of full car driving licences were exempt from the motorcycle theory test. This exemption ended on 1 ^st February 2001.
• offering increased guidance offered to experienced riders, including publishing advice for people returning to motorcycling after a break and for people riding as part of their work, and
• making the registration of all motorcycle instructors statutory.

Key points

• The number of motorcyclists killed or injured on Scotland's roads fell in the early 1990s, but has increased since 1997. In 2001 there were 1,174 motorcycle casualties in Scotland - the highest number since 1992.
• Older motorcyclists, aged over 30, account for an increasing proportion of motorcycle casualties. While 30-39 year olds accounted for just 14% of all motorcycle casualties in 1991, by 2001 they accounted for 35%.
• Just over half of all motorcycle accidents between 1997 and 2001 occurred in built-up areas. However, proportionally motorcycle accidents in non built-up areas are on the increase. Motorcycle accidents in non built-up areas are also more likely to be fatal or serious than accidents in built-up areas.
• Analysis of police fatal accident reports by the Transport Research Laboratory (Lynam et al, 2001) found that "loss of control of the vehicle" was the most common precipitating factor in fatal accidents where a motorcyclist was judged to be principally responsible. Excessive speed was a contributory factor in around a fifth of accidents where a motorcyclists was responsible.
• During the 1990s, the number of motorcycles of 500cc and over increased dramatically, from 15% of all bikes registered in 1989 to almost half in 1999.
• The government's road safety strategy, produced in partnership by the DETR, Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales, outlines various measures aimed at reducing motorcycle casualties, including offering increased guidance to experienced riders and making the registration of all motorcycle instructors statutory.

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