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Key 2002 Road Accident Statistics

1. Main Points

1.1 The provisional total number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 2002 was 304: a decrease of 43 (12%) over the figure for 2001, and the lowest total since current records began more than fifty years ago.

1.2 There were 3,204 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2002, 203 (6%) fewer than in 2001, and the lowest figure since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950.

1.3 There were 15,730 people recorded as slightly injured in 2002, 428 (3%) fewer than in 2001, and the lowest number since 1955.

1.4 The total number of casualties in 2002 was 19,238, which was 674 (3%) lower than in 2001, and the lowest figure since 1954.

1.5 There were 3,508 people killed or seriously injured in 2002, 27% (1,330) below the 1994-98 average of 4,838. The figure for 2002 is below the relevant indicative line, and therefore the reduction so far has been greater than would be needed to achieve the 2010 target fall of 40% by means of a constant annual percentage reduction.

1.6 523 children were killed or seriously injured in 2002, 38% (319) below the 1994-98 average of 842. The figure for 2002 is also below the relevant indicative line, representing rapid progress towards the 2010 target of a 50% reduction.

1.7 At the time of writing, 2001 is the latest year for which there is an estimate of the total volume of traffic for Scotland as a whole. The slight casualty rate of 37.2 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2001 was 9.7% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 41.3, so the 2010 target of a 10% reduction had almost been achieved.

1.8 Accidents on roads in non built-up areas accounted for over three-quarters of all fatalities in Scotland, compared with about two fifths of the total number of casualties, presumably because average speeds are higher on such roads.

1.9 A total of 11,806 car users were injured in road accidents in 2002, 154 of whom died (21% fewer than the previous year). There were 3,313 pedestrian casualties including 73 fatalities. Because of their greater vulnerability, 27% of all pedestrian casualties were either fatally or seriously injured, whereas only 15% of car users were killed or seriously injured.

1.10 There were 2,767 child casualties in 2002, 189 (6%) fewer than in 2001. They included 14 fatalities: 6 deaths fewer than in 2001.

2. Background

2.1 This bulletin presents provisional statistics of road accidents in which people were killed or injured ("injury road accidents") in Scotland in 2002, which were extracted from the Road Accidents statistical database on 12 May 2003. The final totals for 2002, which will appear later, in "Road Accidents Scotland 2002", may differ slightly from the figures given here, due to (eg) late returns and amendments. For similar reasons, the figures which appear here for 2001 and earlier years may differ slightly from those published previously.

2.2 Section 5, tables 3 - 5 and the associated charts show progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2010. The targets are described in section 9.4. The figures for 2002 are compared with the annual averages for 1994-98, because this is the "baseline" period for the road safety targets for the year 2010. The thick black lines show the figures recorded so far, the horizontal dashed lines show the baseline averages, and the dotted lines going downwards indicate how the figures would have to fall if the targets for 2010 were to be achieved by means of a constant percentage reduction in each year. They imply the following reductions from the 1994-98 averages by 2002:

- therefore, any falls which are greater than these suggest more rapid progress than the relevant indicative lines.

3. Numbers of Accidents ( Table 1)

3.1 Table 1 shows the numbers of injury road accidents recorded by the police in 2002 and some earlier years. As noted earlier, the figures relate only to those accidents in which one or more people were killed or injured. Each accident is classified according to the severity of the most seriously injured casualty who was involved in it.

3.2 Following the trend of most years since 1989, the total number of injury road accidents fell. In 2002, there were 14,312 accidents in which someone was killed or injured, 3% fewer than in 2001. The number of fatal accidents in 2002 (274) was 34 (11%) less than the figure for 2001 (308), and the lowest figure since records of fatal accidents began in 1970.

3.3 The number of serious injury accidents in 2002 (2,661) fell by 176 (6%) from the figure for 2001 (2,837) to the lowest figure recorded, and the number of "slight injury" accidents in 2002 (11,377) was 2% less than the figure for 2001 (11,581) and also the lowest number recorded since the current records began in 1970.

4. Numbers of Casualties by Severity ( Table 2)

4.1 Numbers fatally injured

Table 2 shows that the provisional total number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 2002 was 304. This was 43 (12%) less than the figure for 2001, and was the lowest since the current records began more than 50 years ago (information about road accident fatalities prior to 1947 is not readily available). With a few exceptions, there has been a fall in each year since 1978, and for most of that period the figures show a clear, steady long-term downward trend, particularly between 1982 and 1994. From that point, the numbers appear to have been fluctuating around a less pronounced downward trend.

4.2 Numbers seriously injured

There were 3,204 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2002: 203 (6%) fewer than in 2001. This is the lowest figure since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950. Since the early 1980s, the long-term trend has generally been downward, although there was an apparent levelling-off when the figures for 1996, 1997 and 1998 showed very little change, all being around 4,050. However, since then it appears that the downward trend has resumed, with falls in the last 4 years.

4.3 Numbers slightly injured

There were 15,730 people recorded as slightly injured in 2002: 428 (3%) fewer than in 2001. This is the lowest number recorded since 1955. Between 1970 and 1990, the figures fluctuated in a range which was broadly 17,000 to 21,000. The fall between 1990 and 1995 in the number of people with slight injuries, followed by an apparent levelling-off at around 17-18,000 in each of the years from 1996 to 1999, could have been a continuation of that pattern. However, the figures for the latest four years show a fairly steady downward trend.

4.4 Total numbers of casualties

The total number of casualties (of all severities) in 2002 was 19,238, which was 674 (3%) lower than in 2001. This represented the lowest number of casualties since 1954. Between about 1970 and 1990, the figures appeared to fluctuate greatly around a general downward trend. Subsequently, the total number of casualties fell markedly from the level of the most recent "short-term" peak (which was over 27,000 in both 1989 and 1990), before appearing to level off: the figures for each of the years from 1993 to 1998 were all within 600 (3%) of the average of 22,330 for those six years. However, it appears that the downward trend has resumed: the totals for 1999 and 2000 were both under 21,000, and the figures for 2001 and 2002 were the first for almost 50 years to be below 20,000.

5. Progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2010 ( Tables 3-5)

5.1 Killed or seriously injured casualties

There were 3,508 people killed or seriously injured in 2002, 27% (1,330) below the 1994-98 average of 4,838. As noted in paragraph 2.2, the relevant "indicative line" figure for 2002 is 19.7% below the 1994-98 baseline average. Therefore, the reduction so far has been greater than would be needed to achieve the 2010 target fall of 40% by means of a constant annual percentage reduction, so the figure for 2002 is below the relevant indicative line. Table 3 shows that this is also the case for most modes of transport: the percentage fall from the 1994-98 average number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties is more than 19.7% for most modes of transport, and so their figures would be below their indicative lines.

About half of all the 3,508 KSI casualties in 2002 were car users. The total of 1,769 car KSI casualties in 2002 was 29% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 2,501, and therefore better than the indicative line reduction. There were 883 pedestrian KSI casualties in 2002, 36% fewer than the annual average of 1,376 for the period 1994-98. However, the number of motorcycle KSI casualties in 2002 was 457, an increase of 29% (102) from the 1994-98 average: this was the only category of road user for which the figure in 2002 was markedly above the indicative line. There were 149 pedal cycle KSI casualties, 40% below the 1994-98 average, and 141 goods vehicle user KSI casualties, 18% below the baseline average and therefore this figure was slightly above the indicative line. The numbers of KSI casualties were smaller for each of the remaining categories of road user (bus/coach: 59; others: 50).

5.2 Child killed or seriously injured casualties

523 children were killed or seriously injured in 2002, 38% (319) below the 1994-98 average of 842. The indicative line figure for 2002 is 25.7% below the 1994-98 average. Therefore, the figure for 2002 represents rapid progress towards the 2010 target of a 50% reduction. Table 4 shows that, in 2002, the figures for child pedestrians and pedal cyclists were below the indicative line, but the figure for child car users is slightly above it.

About two-thirds of the 523 child killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties in 2002 were pedestrians. The number of child pedestrian KSI casualties in 2002 was 336, 226 (40%) below the 1994-98 average of 562, and therefore better than the indicative line reduction. There were 111 child car KSI casualties in 2002, a fall of 34 (23%) from the 1994-98 average of 145, and therefore slightly above the indicative line. Child pedal cycle KSI casualties in 2002 were below the indicative line: there were 46, a reduction of 54% from the 1994-98 average of 100. As there are few child KSI casualties for other modes of transport, small fluctuations in their numbers can cause apparently large percentage changes from the 1994-98 baseline average levels - so percentage changes for them are not shown in Table 4.

5.3 Slightly injured casualties, and the slight casualty rate per 100 million vehicle kilometres

Because of the limited availability of detailed reliable road traffic estimates for Scotland, Table 5 shows the numbers of slight casualties (rather than slight casualty rates) for various types of road user. The table also shows the overall total volume of traffic and the overall slight casualty rate, both of which are only available on an annual basis with effect from 1998.

At the time of writing, 2001 is the latest year for which there is an estimate of the total volume of traffic for Scotland as a whole. The slight casualty rate of 37.2 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2001 was 9.7% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 41.3, so the 2010 target of a 10% reduction had almost been achieved.

By 2002, the indicative line has a reduction of 4.4% in the slight casualty rate. The total number of slight casualties had fallen by 10%, which is faster than this, and the figures for most of the road user categories had also fallen more rapidly than the indicative line.

Almost two-thirds of slight casualties in 2002 were car users. The total number of car user slight casualties in 2002 was 10,037, 8% below the 1994-98 average of 10,859, and therefore better than the slight casualty rate's indicative line fall of 4.4%. There were 2,430 pedestrian slight casualties, 19% fewer than the 1994-98 average of 3,009, a reduction much better than that of the indicative line for the slight casualty rate. Bus and coach user slight casualties totalled 801 in 2002, 12% fewer than the 1994-98 average, and the number of pedal cyclist slight casualties (679) was 34% below the baseline average. However, motorcyclist slight casualties (707 in 2002), were 22% above the 1994-98 average and goods vehicle user slight casualties (618) were 6% more than the baseline average.

6. Casualties by Type of Road ( Table 6)

6.1 In 2002, "non built-up" roads (see the definition in section 9.3) accounted for about two-fifths of the total number of casualties (41%: 7,847 out of 19,238). However, presumably because average speeds are higher on non built-up roads than elsewhere, they accounted for just over three-quarters of fatal injuries (76%: 230 out of 304) and for over half of the total number of fatal and serious injuries combined (52%: 1,807 out of 3,508).

6.2 Compared with the 1994-98 average, the fall in the total number of casualties has been greater for "built-up" roads (16%) than for non built-up roads (11%). The difference between the two types of road is greater when one compares the falls from the 1994-98 averages for the numbers killed (down by 36% for built-up roads compared with 13% for non built-up) and for the numbers fatally or seriously injured (falls of 31% for built up roads and 24% for non-built up roads).

7. Casualties by Mode of Transport ( Table 6)

7.1 Car users

A total of 11,806 car users were injured in road accidents, representing just over three-fifths of all casualties (61%: 11,806 out of 19,238). Of these people, a total of 1,769 were either fatally or seriously injured, 154 of whom died. Non built-up roads accounted for a little over half of all car user casualties (53%: 6,272 out of 11,806). Presumably because average speeds are higher on non built-up roads, they accounted for much higher percentages of the total numbers of car users who were fatally injured (91%: 140 out of 154) or were fatally or seriously injured (72%: 1,279 out of 1,769).

The number of car user fatalities in 2002 was 21% lower than in 2001, and was 26% below the 1994-98 average level. The number who were fatally or seriously injured fell by 9% from 2001, and the total number of casualties (of all severities) was 4% less than in the previous year. The total number of car user casualties in 2002 was 12% below the 1994-98 average.

7.2 Pedestrians

There were 3,313 pedestrian casualties in 2002: over a sixth of all casualties (17%: 3,313 out of 19,238). Of these, 883 were fatally or seriously injured (73 died). Presumably because of the greater vulnerability of pedestrians, 27% of pedestrian casualties were fatally or seriously injured (883 out of 3,313) compared with 15% of all car users (1,769 out of 11,806). About 95% of pedestrian casualties occurred on built-up roads (3,140 out of 3,313). Perhaps because of higher average speeds on non built-up roads, 45% of the pedestrian casualties on such roads were serious injuries or fatalities (78 out of 173) compared with 26% on built-up roads (805 out of 3,140).

7.3 Other casualties

Together, all other modes of transport accounted for a fifth (21%) of casualties in 2002 (4,119 out of 19,238) and for a similar proportion of the total number of fatal and serious injuries (24%: 856 out of 3,508). In 2002 there were 1,164 motor cycle casualties, (1% fewer than 2001 but 24% above the 1994-98 average), of whom 457 (39%) suffered fatal or serious injuries (46 died). A total of 860 bus and coach users were injured, of whom 59 suffered serious injuries (none were killed) - these low proportions presumably being due to the greater protection of their passengers by buses and coaches. The number of bus and coach user casualties rose by 4% in 2002, but was 15% below the 1994-98 average level. There were 828 pedal cyclist casualties in 2002, (10% fewer than in 2001 and 35% below the 1994-98 average level), including 149 (18%) fatal or serious injuries (8 died).

8. Child Casualties ( Table 7)

8.1 Child casualties

There were 2,767 child casualties in 2002, representing about a seventh of the total number of casualties of all ages (14%: 2,767 out of 19,238). Of the child casualties, 523 were fatalities or serious injuries, of whom 14 died. This was 6 deaths fewer than in 2001; the total number of child casualties fell by 189 (6%). These numbers were all considerably below the 1994-98 average levels: the number of casualties was 28% lower, the number of deaths was about half of the 1994-98 average level and the number of killed or seriously injured was 38% below the 1994-98 average level.

8.2 Child pedestrians

There were 1,308 child pedestrian casualties in 2002. They accounted for 39% of all pedestrian casualties of all ages (1,308 out of 3,313). Of the child pedestrian casualties, 336 were fatalities or serious injuries (12 died). The number of fatalities was 2 fewer than in 2001, and the total number of fatal and serious injuries was 5% lower than in 2001. The figures were considerably below the corresponding 1994-98 averages: the number of fatal and serious child pedestrian casualties and the overall number of child pedestrian casualties were, respectively, 40% and 33% below the 1994-98 average level.

8.3 Children in cars

In 2002, there were 929 child casualties in cars, 8% of the total number of car user casualties of all ages (929 out of 11,806). Of the child casualties in cars, 111 were fatalities or serious injuries (2 died). While the total number of child car user fatalities and serious injuries was 23% below the 1994-98 average, the total number of child car user casualties (of all severities) was only 15% lower than the 1994-98 average.

8.4 Other child casualties

In 2002, there were 276 child pedal cycle casualties (33% of the total of 828 pedal cycle casualties of all ages), 165 child bus and coach user casualties (19% of the total of 860 of all ages) and 89 other child casualties. The child pedal cycle casualties included 46 serious injuries, but no deaths. The total number of child pedal cycle casualties in 2002 was 49% below the 1994-98 average, and the total number of child bus and coach user casualties was 9% below the 1994-98 average.

9. Sources and definitions

9.1 The sources of the data

The statistics in this bulletin were compiled from returns made by police forces, which cover all accidents in which a vehicle is involved that occur on roads (including footways) and result in personal injury, if they become known to the police. The vehicle need not be moving, and need not be in collision - for example, the returns include accidents involving people alighting from buses. "Damage only" accidents are not included in this definition.

9.2 The definition of "severity"

For the purposes of the Road Accidents statistical returns:

a fatal injury is one which causes death less than 30 days after the accident;
a fatal accident is an accident in which at least one person is fatally injured;
a serious injury is one which does not cause death less than 30 days after the accident, and which is in one (or more) of the following categories:

(a) an injury for which a person is detained in hospital as an in-patient

or (b) any of the following injuries (whether or not the person is detained in hospital): fractures, concussion, internal injuries, crushings, severe cuts and lacerations, severe general shock requiring treatment

or (c) any injury causing death 30 or more days after the accident;

a serious accident is one in which at least one person is seriously injured, but no-one suffers a fatal injury;
a "slight" injury is any injury which is neither "fatal" nor "serious" - for example, a sprain, bruise or cut which is not judged to be severe, or slight shock requiring roadside attention;
a "slight" accident is one in which at least one person suffers "slight" injuries, but no-one is seriously injured, or fatally injured;

Over the years, improvements in vehicle design, and the provision and use of additional safety features, together with changes in the law (eg on the fitting and wearing of seatbelts), will have all helped to reduce the severity of the injuries suffered in some accidents. Road safety measures should also have reduced the levels of injuries sustained - for example, if traffic calming schemes reduce average speeds and hence reduce the speeds at which collisions occur. In addition, the distinction between "serious" and "slight" injuries could be affected by factors such as changes in hospitals' admission policies. For example, all else being equal, the number of "serious injury" cases would rise, and the number of "slight injury" cases would fall, if it became standard procedure for a hospital to keep in overnight, for precautionary reasons, casualties with a particular type of injury (section 2.3 of the 1995 bulletin explained that part of the increase in "serious injury" cases in 1994 was due to hospitals admitting more child casualties for overnight observation). There could also be changes in hospitals' procedures that would reduce the numbers of "serious injury" cases. In addition, there is anecdotal evidence that changes in procedures for assigning severity codes may affect the categorisation of injuries. For example, different severity codes might be assigned by a police officer who was at the scene of an accident and by a clerk who bases the code on a police officer's written description of the accident. Therefore, it is possible that some of the changes shown in the figures for "serious injuries" and "slight injuries" may be affected by changes in administrative practices, which may have altered the proportion of accidents which is categorised as "serious".

9.3 Some other definitions

Built-up roads: accidents which occur on "built-up" roads are those which occur on roads which have speed limits of up to 40 miles per hour ( ignoring temporary speed limits on roads for which the normal speed limit is over 40mph). Therefore, an accident on a motorway in an urban area would not be counted as occurring on a "built-up" road, because the speed limit on the motorway is 70mph. An accident on a stretch of motorway with a temporary speed limit of 30mph would not be counted as occurring on a "built-up" road, because the normal speed limit is 70mph.

Children: people under 16 years old.

Pedestrians: includes people riding toy cycles on the footway; people pushing or pulling bicycles or other vehicles; people leading or herding animals; occupants of prams or wheelchairs; people who alight safely from vehicles and are subsequently injured.

9.4 The targets for reducing road accident casualties by the year 2010

In March 2000, the UK Government, the Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new national road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. These new targets were introduced to focus on achieving a further substantial improvement in road safety over the next ten years, with particular emphasis on child casualties. The new targets, which are given in the document "Tomorrow's roads - safer for everyone", are based on the annual average casualty levels over the period 1994 to 1998. By 2010 it is hoped that there will be, compared with the average for 1994-98:

• a 40% reduction in the number of people killed or seriously injured in road accidents.
• a 50% reduction in the number of children killed or seriously injured; and
• a 10% reduction in the slight casualty rate, expressed as the number of people slightly injured per 100 million vehicle kilometres.

9.5 The calculation of the "indicative lines" shown in the graphs

One way of assessing progress towards these targets is to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 1996 and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, to the target for 2010. This is the approach adopted by the GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. The indicative line starts at the baseline figure in 1996 because that is the middle year of the 1994-98 "baseline" period. Other approaches could have been used: there are many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for 2010 - for example, the indicative lines could have started at the actual levels for the year 2000 (as that was the year in which the targets were adopted), and fallen in straight lines to the targets for 2010.

As the method adopted to produce the indicative lines involves a constant percentage reduction in each year, the lines are not straight. This is due to the "compounding over the years" effect of constant annual percentage reductions: each year's fall in an indicative line's figure is calculated by applying a constant percentage reduction to the line's number of casualties in the previous year (which reduces each year, so the falls between one year and the next get smaller and smaller). To two decimal places, the falls are: 3.58% p.a. for killed or seriously injured casualties; 4.83% p.a. for child killed or seriously injured casualties; and 0.75% p.a. for the slight casualty rate.

More statistics relating to the new targets appear in "Road Accidents Scotland". A table on page 42 of "Road Accidents Scotland 2001" shows the percentages of the baseline averages in each year which are represented by each of the indicative lines.

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