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Scottish Economic Statistics 2003

A4 Employment estimates for Scotland: A comparison of sources

Fiona Roberts, Gerhard Mors and Dette Cowden, Scottish Executive

Introduction

Many organisations and individuals require estimates of employment in the Scottish economy. Estimates can be required for many different purposes. These might include obtaining the most up-to-date estimate of current overall employment; obtaining employment estimates for a particular industry; looking at employment trends over a period of time; looking at employment in a specific geographical area within Scotland; or looking at the characteristics of individuals employed.

There are many sources of employment data. Each source collects data for a specific purpose or purposes. They use data collection systems and estimation methods which provide the best estimates of employment in relation to their primary purpose. However, the estimates obtained may not be completely consistent with those obtained via another source for a different purpose. They may be attempting to measure slightly different things (for instance, number of people employed, rather than number of jobs). In addition, the underlying raw data may differ due to timing, definitional, or other differences.

This article describes the main sources of employment data available for Scotland. It describes the primary purpose of each source, and its main advantages and disadvantages. It is not a comprehensive review of all employment data that is available, but it is intended to guide a prospective user of employment data in the direction of the source or sources that are likely to be most useful for his or her specific purpose. It is also intended to give a prospective user some indication of the limitations of each source, and its relationship to other sources. Details of how to access the data are included.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a major producer of employment data. ONS have published various articles describing their data sources, as well as articles comparing the estimates obtained from different sources ⁴

Main Sources

The main sources of employment figures produced for Scotland under National Statistics are listed below.

• Labour Force Survey (LFS)
• 2001 Population Census
• Annual Business Inquiry (ABI)
• Quarterly Employee Jobs
• Civilian Workforce Jobs
• Scottish Production/Construction/Services Databases (SPD/SCD/SSD)
• Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR)

The LFS and Census are employee based sources. The other sources are firm based, and are linked. The civilian workforce figures incorporate some LFS information. All the sources are described in detail below.

Other sources

Some other potential sources of employment data are listed below. Some of the surveys listed have a relatively small sample size in Scotland, or have other limitations noted below. These sources are not discussed further in this article.

• Scottish Household Survey - only collects data on the highest income householder
• British Household Panel Survey -sample increased since 2000, but still relatively small
• Family Resources Survey -designed to produce household/family income annual estimates
• Private sector e.g. BSL, Cambridge Econometrics, Fraser of Allander
• Local authorities - usually covering their local area only

Description of sources

Each of the sources of employment is described below. Table 1 summarises and compares the features of each source. Table 2 gives a selection of the figures obtained from each source for comparison.

Labour Force Survey

The LFS is a survey of households, and individuals within households, conducted quarterly. It provides estimates of employment, based on the individual's description of the main activity of their employer. This may therefore differ from the employer's description, used for firm-based surveys. It includes estimates for the self-employed. Employment data can be combined with other characteristics of the individual or household collected in the survey. Employees and self-employed persons are counted at their place of residence.

The LFS provides employment data for all sectors of the economy, at local authority level. The main constraint is sample size, so that data for some industries and/or local authorities may not be available because of confidentiality considerations, or because they are based on too small a number of respondents to be considered reliable. However, a boost to the LFS sample size has been agreed, to be funded by the Scottish Executive, which will double the sample size from 2003. This will improve the quality of the estimates and make estimates available for some industries and local authorities for the first time.

Main purpose

The LFS is a quarterly sample survey carried out by interviewing people about their circumstances and work. It is the biggest regular household survey in Great Britain and provides a rich and vital source of information about the labour force using internationally agreed concepts and definitions.

Main advantages

• Figures cover whole economy
• Consistent with figures for rest of UK
• Internationally comparable and meets international standards
• Timely
• Covers self-employed, unpaid family workers, those participating in a government supported training scheme
• Covers home working and work patterns
• Interviewer administered

Main drawbacks

• Large confidence limits for some estimates
• Likely to be less accurate than firm-based sources for industrial classification
• Not available for wards or similar small areas

When to use LFS figures

• When the interest is in the people employed rather than the number of jobs
• When require employment rates based on working age population
• When wish to examine characteristics of the employed such as wages, hours worked or qualifications held
• When examining industries with large numbers or proportions of self-employed

How to access LFS figures

Registration for NOMIS, a web based database of Labour Market Statistics run on behalf of ONS at www.nomisweb.co.uk will give access to a limited set of tables.

Current Scotland and Local Authority information is available at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/who/elld/stats-localauth0.asp Customised tabulations are available by e-mailing labour.market@scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Population Census

The Census is undertaken every 10 years by the Registrar General for Scotland. It covers all households and communal establishments. It counts employees and self-employed at their place of residence and their work place.

In the 2001 Census in Scotland, the place of work questions were extended to include travel to place of study. Accordingly, comparability with the rest of the UK and with previous Census may be affected, though the effect should be minimised by an appropriate selection of the cases to be included in analyses.

As part of the work to assure the quality of data in the Census, comparisons are being made of the numbers of workers counted at their workplace with the Inter-Departmental Business Register.

Main purpose

To provide a full count of the population for Scotland. It gives a full count of employees and self-employed, with other personal and household characteristics such as age, sex, ethnic group, and educational qualifications.

Main advantages

• Covers the whole economy
• Consistent with UK (but see above note on comparability)
• Covers self employed
• Allows cross-tabulations with other social data
• Available at small area level

Main disadvantages

• Likely to be less accurate than firm-based sources for industrial classification
• Not updated for 10 years

When to use population census figures

• When require data linked with other Census-based data
• For employment data for small or non standard areas
• For data that need both a workplace and home base of counting

How to access population census figures

Details on GROS website www.gro-scotland.gov.uk

• Published reports
• CD-ROMs
• Scottish Census Results On-line (SCROL), www.scrol.gov.uk
• Bulk supply from GROS Customer Services

Customer Services
General Register Office for Scotland
Ladywell House
Ladywell Road
EDINBURGH
EH12 7TF
Tel: 0131 314 4254 (International +44 131 314 4254)
Fax: 0131 314 4696 (International +44 131 314 4696)
E-mail: customer@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Annual Business Inquiry

The ABI is a UK wide survey of employers undertaken annually by ONS. It covers the whole economy apart from agriculture and the armed forces. However, figures for agriculture are included in the final results, from Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and Scottish Executive sources.

The ABI sample in Scotland covers approximately 9000 firms. The employment figures relate to December each year, and relate to employee jobs, not people. The results are grossed up to give figures for total employees by 4 digit SIC, or by ward area. Figures are available disaggregated by male, female, full-time and part-time.

Initial figures are available approximately a year after the end of the calendar year to which they refer. Revised figures are available approximately two years after the end of the calendar year to which they refer; these correct any anomalies reported by users of the initial figures.

Main purpose

Whole economy estimate of employees, based on location and industry classification of workplace.

Main advantages

• Figures cover whole economy
• Consistent with figures for rest of UK
• Relatively timely

Main drawbacks

• Non standard analyses of figures not possible (e.g. by size of firm)
• Sampling variation for small area estimates
• Agriculture figures only available for local authority geographies
• Self-employed are excluded

When to use ABI figures

• When require industry-based figures for whole economy
• When require figures consistent with those for rest of UK
• When require figures down to 4 digit SIC or ward level

How to access ABI figures

Registration for NOMIS, a web based database of Labour Market Statistics run on behalf of ONS at www.nomisweb.co.uk will give access to a limited set of tables.

Bespoke information can be obtained by e-mailing the Scottish Executive on labour.market@scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Quarterly employee jobs

These figures are produced from quarterly surveys to employers, and administrative returns. They do not cover the self employed or armed forces, and are available at a broad industry level for Scotland as a whole. They are seasonally adjusted, and are constrained to the annual ABI figures.

These figures are available three months after the end of the quarter to which they relate.

Main purpose

To provide an up-date, seasonally adjusted time-series of employment at a broad level of aggregation.

Main advantages

• Timely source of employment figures, on a quarterly basis
• Consistent with figures for rest of UK
• Total figures are seasonally adjusted

Main drawbacks

• Industry and gender breakdowns are not seasonally adjusted
• No sub Scotland data available.

When to use quarterly employee jobs figures

• When require most up-to-date figures for Scotland as a whole
• When require (seasonally adjusted) quarterly figures

How to access quarterly employee jobs figures

Register for NOMIS, a web based database of Labour Market Statistics run on behalf of ONS at www.nomisweb.co.uk.

Civilian Workforce Jobs

This quarterly series is based on the employee jobs series, but also incorporates estimates for self-employed from the LFS and estimates for government supported trainees from the Department for Education and Skills (DfES). It provides an estimate of total workforce jobs (with only the armed forces excluded).

It is available three months after the end of the quarter to which it relates.

Main purpose

To provide an up-date, time-series of employment at a broad level of aggregation, including some categories of employment not included in the employee jobs series.

Main advantages

• Estimate of total civilian workforce jobs, on a quarterly basis.
• Consistent with figures for rest of UK
• Timely
• Long time series available

Main drawbacks

• Not seasonally adjusted
• No breakdown by gender
• Limited breakdown by industry
• No sub Scotland data available

How to access civilian workforce jobs figures

Register for NOMIS, a web based database of Labour Market Statistics run on behalf of ONS at www.nomisweb.co.uk

Scottish Production/Construction/Services Databases

As well as employment, the ABI collects financial data from firms. The SPD/SCD/SSD are three databases created by the Scottish Executive, using ONS's ungrossed ABI figures. Both employment and financial data on the databases are held at local unit (i.e. site) level. For local units not covered by the ABI, data are imputed on the basis of the data of similar units (in terms of industry, location and size) for which actual data are held.

ABI financial data do not cover the whole economy (although the intention is to increase coverage in future years). The main areas not covered are agriculture, financial intermediation, and most of the public sector.

Figures are available approximately 2 years after the end of the calendar year to which they relate.

Main purpose

To produce employment estimates at individual site level consistent with corresponding financial data, in order to produce productivity and other "per head" figures.

Main advantages

• Figures for employment are consistent with related financial figures (when calculating productivity and other per employee measures)
• Database held at individual local unit level (facilitates non-standard analyses, looking at firm level trends)
• Small and ad-hoc area analysis available based on unit postcode

Main drawbacks

• Doesn't cover whole economy
• Long lag before data are available
• Not consistent with UK figures
• Sampling error for estimates for small areas

When to use SPD/SCD/SSD figures

• When require employment consistent with other ABI financial variables
• When require non-standard aggregations not available from other sources
• When interested in firm level characteristics

How to access SPD/SCD/SSD figures

A selection of tabulations is available via the following link http://www.scotland.gov.uk/about/ELLD/EI/00016170/Introduction.aspx

Customised tabulations are available by e-mail at industrystatistics@scotland.gsi.gov.uk or telephone 0141-242-5604 during normal business hours.

Inter-Departmental Business Register

The IDBR is the business register held by ONS, from which the samples and populations for all its business inquiries, including the ABI, are drawn.

The IDBR holds information on the businesses that are registered for VAT and/or PAYE. Because one of the sources is the PAYE register nearly all employees are covered. However the self-employed working with no employees and with a turnover below the VAT threshold are not registered. The IDBR covers businesses in the whole economy.

The IDBR holds information on the structure of businesses, showing the links between local units, enterprises and enterprise groups. As well as contact details (name and address, etc), it holds details of various characteristics of the firm (e.g. SIC and country of ownership) as well as employment and turnover data.

Employment information is collected at local unit level by the Annual Register Inquiry (ARI), with larger firms (with over 50 employees) being covered annually and all firms updated at least every four years, from a variety of sources including ARI, ABI and the PAYE register. The IDBR is the only source of employment information at local unit level and the other sources listed above use local unit IDBR employment information for estimation.

SE receives a quarterly extract covering Scottish local units on the IDBR. From this, it is possible to produce analyses of the corporate sector by, for instance, area and firm size.

Main purpose

To provide a business register and sampling frame for ONS and other business surveys.

Main advantages

• Covers whole economy
• Database held at individual local unit level (facilitates non-standard analyses, looking at firm level trends, links between local unit, enterprise and enterprise group)
• Small and ad-hoc area analysis available based on unit postcode

Main drawbacks

• Employment does not relate to a single point in time and can be up to 4 years out of date for some small firms.
• Some but not all self employment is included
• Agriculture data less reliable than other sectors

When to use IDBR figures

• For small or non-standard area estimates of employment or employees for the whole economy, when the figure does not need to relate to other financial variables (other than turnover)
• For classifying enterprises by employment size bands

How to access IDBR figures

The Scottish corporate sector statistics, updated annually, contain employment estimates by sector, legal status and size of firm: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/scs-00.asp.

Customised tabulations are available by e-mailing industrystatistics@scotland.gsi.gov.uk or by telephoning 0141-242-5487 during normal business hours.

Table A4.1: Features of the employment series for Scotland

Table A4.2: Comparison of employment estimates from various data sources, 1999 and 2000

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