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SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS ESTIMATES FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2002

A Scottish Executive National Statistics News Release

This document is also available in pdf format (56k)

Seasonally adjusted export sales in current prices by Scotland's manufacturing sector totalled 3.383 billion in the fourth quarter of 2002, according to provisional estimates released today by the Scottish Executive.

Scottish Manufactured Exports - 1995-2002 Q4

NEXT PUBLICATION DATE: 9 July 2003 (Provisional)

The main findings are:

• Manufactured export sales decreased by 24.9 per cent in real terms in the year to 2002 Q4, compared with the previous 4 quarters. In current prices, there was a decrease of 21.3 per cent.
• In 2002 Q4, manufactured export sales decreased by 2.3 per cent in real terms, compared with the previous quarter. In current prices, there was a decrease of 3.5 per cent.
• Total manufactured exports (in current prices and seasonally adjusted) were 3.383 billion in 2002 Q4, compared with 3.504 billion in the previous quarter. The Electrical and Instrument Engineering sector accounted for 1.408 billion, or 42 per cent.
• In current prices, the sectors with the largest increases in the year to 2002 Q4, compared with the previous 4 quarters (to 2001 Q4), were Metals and Metal products (52 per cent) and Transport Equipment (18 per cent). The largest decreases were in Electrical & Instrument Engineering (38 per cent), Food and Tobacco (19 per cent), and Paper, Printing and Publishing (9 per cent).

LIST OF TABLES:

TABLE 1: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS CURRENT PRICES ( BILLION)
TABLE 2: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS CURRENT PRICES ( BILLION)
TABLE 3: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS 1995 PRICES ( BILLION)
TABLE 4: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS 1995 PRICES ( BILLION)
TABLE 5: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS CURRENT PRICES ( BILLION) Revisions since publication of 2002 quarter 3
TABLE 6: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS CURRENT PRICES ( BILLION) Revisions since publication of 2002 quarter 3
TABLE 7: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS 1995 PRICES ( BILLION) Revisions since publication of 2002 quarter 3
TABLE 8: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS 1995 PRICES ( BILLION) Revisions since publication of 2002 quarter 3

NOTE TO NEWS EDITORS

1. Estimates of Scottish Manufactured Exports are compiled on the standard industrial classification SIC92.

2. The data presented for Scottish Manufactured Exports measure sales of goods produced by the Scottish Manufacturing sector for export outwith the UK. The Office for National Statistics collects the data used to produce these figures in their Monthly Production Inquiry. The data are deflated to 1995 prices using UK export producer price indices, which are also produced by the ONS.

3. The data are seasonally adjusted. The basic series that are seasonally adjusted are Textiles, Footwear, Leather & Clothing, Drink, Electrical & Instrument Engineering and Other Manufacturing Industries. This means that direct comparison between successive quarters is possible for these industries and the combined series. OCEA have developed systems to seasonally adjust the series in line with standard National Statistics practice.

4. Estimates of Scottish Manufactured Exports are based on a sample of just under 800 Scottish manufacturing exporters in an average quarter. This sample covers all sizes of unit across manufacturing industry.

5. The data published in this news release are based on 1995 prices and current prices. Due to the availability of updated information and small changes in the seasonal factors there have been some revisions to the Scottish Manufactured Exports published on 15 January 2003. Tables 5-8 show revisions to the estimates previously published.

6. Although it is not possible to isolate and quantify the effect of economic uncertainties following the events of September 11 ^th it is likely that there has been a significant effect on the level on Scottish Manufactured Exports.

7. These figures only cover the manufacturing sector. The Scottish Development International sponsored annual estimates of total exports from Scotland produced by SCDI, indicate that the manufacturing sector accounted for 64 per cent of all exports from Scotland in 2001.

8. Provisional figures for Scottish Manufactured Exports in 2003 Q1 are scheduled to be published on Wednesday 9 July 2003.

9. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

Mercury and Profile users may obtain a copy of the Index tables by telephoning the number below.

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