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measuring Scotland's progress towards A SMART, SUCCESSFUL SCOTLAND
best start for all our young people
LEAD INDICATOR
11A - PROPORTION OF 16-19 YEAR OLDS WHO ARE NOT IN EDUCATION, TRAINING OR EMPLOYMENT
Why this measure?
Not only does education, training or employment at an early age post school level education allow individuals to develop their skills for later life, but exclusion from these three options is a strong predictor of unemployment at age 21 and into later life. A high number of youngsters in education, training and employment will not only mean a more skilled workforce in the future, it should, other things being equal, lead to a lower unemployment rate in the future.
How does Scotland perform?
Proportion of 16-19 year olds not in education, training or employment (1997-2002)
Scotland has had a higher percentage of 16-19 year olds not in education, training or employment over all the years studied. The gap between Scotland and the UK fluctuated over the late 1990s, but since 2000 the gap has been constant at 4%.
Unemployment as a percentage of the labour force for the 15-24 age group, 2001
A figure for Scotland, on a comparable basis with those figures available from the OECD was unavailable. Instead the ratio of unemployment as between Scotland and the UK was used to scale Scotland relative to the OECD figure for the UK. This gives Scotland a 13.6% unemployment rate for the 15-24 labour force and the UK a figure of 10.5%. This puts Scotland 21st in an OECD sample of 31 countries, placing it in the third quartile. Other data available show the breakdown of activity amongst 15-19 year olds. Scotland and Finland have high unemployment rates amongst this age group, but Scotland has a high employment rate while that in Finland is much lower. The employment rates of Scotland and the UK are very similar. Scotland and the UK have a much lower percentage of 15-19 year olds not in the labour force than is the case in the comparison countries, with a rate of 74.7% not in the labour force in Finland. There are differences in the percentage of 15-19 year olds in education between the comparison countries. The UK and Scotland have education rates of 76.2% and 70.9% respectively while in the comparison countries it ranges from 80.3% in Ireland to 88.5% in Germany. The low figure for Scotland undoubtedly reflects the fact that compulsory education ends at 16, younger than is the case in the comparison countries.
What does this mean for Scotland?
Failure to be employed or be engaged in education or training increases the likelihood of unemployment throughout life and given Scotland's position relative to the UK its young people should be considered more likely to face long-term unemployment than the UK. Paradoxically, however, long term unemployment for young people is less of a problem in Scotland than the UK.
11B - PROPORTION OF YOUNG PEOPLE ACHIEVING A QUALIFICATION AT LEVEL 3 OR EQUIVALENT AT AGE 25
Why this measure?
The skills held by young people are crucial in ensuring that as new entrants into the labour market they are sufficiently qualified to take advantage of job opportunities that arise over the course of their working lives. A workforce being augmented with young, skilled people will be best placed to respond to changes in job specifications and cope with the introduction of new technologies. Although many workers take advantage of learning and training over the course of their working life, this measure seeks to capture the educational attainment of young entrants to the labour force.
How does Scotland perform?
Proportion of the working age population with NVQ Level 3 qualifications (2002)
Scotland performs very strongly against the other areas of the UK with 49% of the working age population having a qualification at NVQ Level 3. Comparable international data are not available, nor do data allow the level of education qualification of those aged 25 to be determined. What is clear, however, is that Scotland's performance has improved over the past two years for which data are available. This should be expected as young qualified individuals join the working age population while older individuals, who are less likely to have qualifications equivalent to Level 3, move out of the working age population.
What does this mean for Scotland?
Scotland's position indicates that it performs strongly against other areas of the UK in terms of the education levels of school-leavers. This should allow Scotland's young people the maximum opportunity for future education and employment and provide them with the core skills sought by employers.
11C - PROPORTION OF YOUNG PEOPLE WITH ADEQUATE TRANSFERABLE SKILLS
Why this measure?
The number of jobs suitable for unskilled labour is falling: without adequate transferable skills young people will find themselves being squeezed out of the labour market. However, having such skills within the workforce makes Scotland an attractive location for business and will help Scotland's productivity rate grow. It will also give Scotland's young people the best chance to realise their own potential in the workplace.
How does Scotland perform?
Mean scores in reading, mathematical and scientific literacy (2000)
The measure used is mean scores for reading, mathematical and scientific literacy. Scotland ranks in the first quartile for reading and mathematical literacy and the second quartile for scientific literacy from an OECD sample of 28 countries. Scotland ranks above the UK for reading and mathematical literacy, but below for scientific literacy. Against the comparator countries Scotland holds a middle ranking, with leadership consistently being held by a combination of Finland, New Zealand and Japan. No comparison is available with last year, but given the time required to acquire skills and the demographics of the population it is unrealistic to expect there to have been a dramatic change in such a short time.
What does this mean for Scotland?
The results prove that Scotland performs well against other countries in the OECD and has a developed future workforce adaptable to change. Providing this level of skills is maintained and augmented as each individual progresses through the workforce, Scotland will remain an attractive location with an adaptable workforce. However, as our comparator countries show, Scotland can improve on an already good situation.
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