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SCOTTISH STRATEGIC RAIL STUDY: Working Paper 7 - Medium Resource Scenario

SPT Cumbernauld Line Enhancements and Motherwell to Stirling

7.19 Analysis of the SSRS demand model suggests that with respect to the service enhancements proposed on the Cumbernauld line, the SSRS demand forecasts (and therefore user benefit estimates) will be overly conservative for the following reasons:

7.20 It should be noted that the CSTCS and the SSRS have the same planning data and comparable capital costs and operating cost estimates. This issue is discussed in more detail in Appendix D.

SESTRAN

7.21 The track capacity situation at Edinburgh Waverley dictates the service provision that that can occur within the medium resource scenario. Of the services that are contenders for inclusion within the MRS, those that use the eastern approaches are neutral with respect to Edinburgh Waverley (i.e. the Galashiels (Borders rail) and the North Berwick service). The services that use the western approach to Edinburgh Waverley, however, compete with each other for available track capacity whichever design of Edinburgh Waverley is utilised.

7.22 Table 7.12 presents the service options that contend for use of Edinburgh Waverley ranked by their NPV for a discount rate of 6%. In addition to the assumptions regarding the Perth and Dundee long distance services the following assumptions have also been made as part of this analysis:

• On the benefit side:
  • Fife Circle package - all benefit from stations on the Fife Circle to other SESTRAN stations;
  • Airdrie - Bathgate - all benefit from stations on the Bathgate - Edinburgh service to other SESTRAN stations plus travel between SESTRAN and SPT areas using this route;
  • North Berwick enhanced off peak service - all benefit from stations on the North Berwick to Edinburgh service to other SESTRAN stations;
  • Galashiels (Borders Rail) - all benefit from stations on the Borders rail route to all other stations
  • Edinburgh Airport - all benefits to model area
  • East Stirling station - all benefits to model area plus disbenefits to existing users of the train services that stop at the new station
• On the cost side:
  • Capital costs for the capacity upgrade between Haymarket W. and Inverkeithing is shared between the Fife Circle package and the Airport Shuttle
  • Capital costs for Airdrie - Bathgate including double tracking the Bathgate branch, diuble tracking Airdrie to Drumgelloch, increasing the track capacity between Newbridge and Haymarket W. and electrification to Haymarket.
  • Operating costs for Airdrie - Bathgate services (to Edinburgh Waverley) have been proportioned (by route mileage) from the operating costs of the Helensburgh to North Berwick service and the Balloch to Edinburgh Waverley service.
  • Operating costs for an enhanced North Berwick service have been proportioned (by route mileage) from the operating costs of the Balloch to Edinburgh Waverley service.

Table 7.12 Service Contenders for Use of Edinburgh Waverley (Discount Rate is 6%)

Edinburgh Waverley

7.23 Using the information contained in Table 7.12 it is possible to develop a package of services for each Edinburgh Waverley option. This analysis reflects the number of train paths available and is detailed in Table 7.13. The train path analysis is contained in Appendix B.

Table 7.13 Services Using Western Approach to Edinburgh Waverley By Design Option

7.24 Table 7.14 and Table 7.15 present the summary economic indicators for each of the Waverley options for a 6% and 3.5% discount rate respectively. As can be seen Option 4 (11 new peak hour passenger train paths per hour) has the best NPV and BCR under both discount rates.

7.25 It should also be noted that under each of the packages of services developed for the different Edinburgh Waverley options, it could be possible to increase the number of peak hour services - the constraining influence on the packages is the number of off peak services. The results presented in Tables 17 and 18 could therefore be viewed as conservative.

Table 7.14 Edinburgh Waverley Options (Discount rate 6%)

G15

Table 7.15 Edinburgh Waverley Options (Discount rate 3.5%)

7.26 This analysis can be extended to consider the potential services that would use Edinburgh Waverley if Edinburgh Airport was served by through routeing trains (e.g Option EA3 as considered in the high resource scenario). In this situation four extra train paths would be made available created at Edinburgh Waverley (additional

7.27 However, if a sub-surface station is developed at Edinburgh airport there will no longer be a need for a shuttle service between the airport and Edinburgh Waverley which would free up four train paths at Edinburgh Waverley Station Design (Option 4). No train paths would become available under Options 2 and 3 as the airport shuttle service would not operate in such a situation. These four paths could be taken by the next best placed service options. Table 7.16 summarises the train services that could be provided under each combination of development for Edinburgh Waverley Station and Edinburgh Airport.

Table 7.16 Services Using Western Approach to Edinburgh Waverley By Design option (Sub-surface station at Edinburgh Airport)

7.28 Summary economic indicators for Edinburgh Waverley and the service options presented in Table 7.16 are presented in Table 7.17. It should be noted that, with a sub-surface station at the airport, an airport service is provided under each of the Waverley Station re-development options, however, the benefits (and costs) of developing the airport sub-surface station are excluded from the analysis. In essence the analysis therefore represents the incremental benefit of re-developing Edinburgh Waverley station once a sub-surface station at the airport has been developed. The rationale for this is that an airport sub-surface station plus through routeing of services is independent of Edinburgh Waverley.

Table 7.17 Edinburgh Waverley Options as an Incremental Addition to a Sub Surface Station and through routeing of services at Edinburgh Airport (Discount rate 6%)

East Stirling Station

7.29 Table 7.18 presents the analysis of economic indicators for East Stirling station.

Table 7.18 East Stirling Station

Inter-Regional

7.30 The above discussion has already drawn some conclusions regarding the inter-regional services. These are as follows:

• SESTRAN to Tay and NESTRANS: Capacity constraints at Edinburgh Waverley suggest that only a faster and slightly enhanced Edinburgh to Aberdeen service would form part of the MRS, particularly given the new Virgin 2 hourly service between Edinburgh and Dundee.
• SPT to Tay and NESTRANS: Both the hourly service to Dundee and the improved Glasgow to Aberdeen service (slightly faster due to less stops) could form part of the MRS from Glasgow Queen St;
• SPT to SESTRAN: Capacity constraints at Glasgow Central HL and Edinburgh Waverley (even with Edinburgh Waverley Option 4) combined with the fact that strong schemes exist that compete for the same train paths as the Shotts semi-fast service, suggest that a Shotts semi-fast service would not form part of the MRS;
• SPT to SESTRAN: a new service between Edinburgh and Glasgow via the Airdrie to Bathgate link would form part of the MRS

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