Scottish Strategic Rail Study

Scottish Strategic Rail Study - Final Report

SCOTTISH STRATEGIC RAIL STUDY: Working Paper 7 - Medium Resource Scenario

7. Scheme Analysis

Introduction

7.1 Data for individual origin-destination pairs have been extracted from the model for the year 2010. These data have been used to estimate single year and 30 year scheme specific indicators where possible. The following data have been utilised within the analysis:

(i) On the benefit side

Additional trips for 2010
Additional passenger miles for 2010
Additional fare revenue for 2010
Existing user benefit for 2010
New user benefit for 2010
Non-user benefit for 2010

(ii) On the cost side

Operating costs per annum (proportioned by route mileage if necessary)
Capital costs (shared between schemes if necessary)

7.2 For the purposes of this analysis benefits have been assumed to grow from 2010 at the same rate that gross benefits over the study area grow. This is at a rate of 2.9% per annum until 2025 and then 2.2% per annum between 2015 and 2039.

7.3 A Caveat - the scheme indicators calculated within this aspect of the analysis should be regarded as indicative; firstly because they are based on a single year's output (2010) extrapolated over the 30 year scheme life and secondly because the nature of the scheme synergies is such that it is very difficult if not impossible to accurately separate the individual components of benefit without conducting a very large number of model runs. Such a large number of model runs would be more consistent with a tactical study rather than a strategic study. In addition. the modelling and benefit estimation process will in some cases be less comprehensive than that being undertaken by some of the scheme promoters whose projects are included here and this may explain some divergence in economic performance. Nevertheless, this analysis is regarded as sufficiently robust to identify schemes that would form the high priority rail schemes and those which would comprise a lower priority.

Long Distance Inter-Regional, Tay and NESTRANS

7.4 With respect to long distance services between the Central Belt and the Tay and NESTRANS areas, hourly services to Dundee and fast services to Aberdeen were considered. The fast services to Aberdeen could occur as result of the Dundee and Aberdeen Crossrail services. The Edinburgh to Aberdeen service had also been strengthened. There are therefore synergies (shared benefits and costs) between all these enhanced services/schemes, as well as between these schemes and the hourly Inverness to Aberdeen service - which shares costs with the Aberdeen Crossrail proposal. The following analysis was undertaken to unpick these synergies.

SESTRAN to Dundee/Angus/NESTRANS Inter-Regional Services

7.5 The two services under consideration here are the new Edinburgh to Dundee service and the enhanced (12 to 16 trains per day) and faster Edinburgh to Aberdeen service. For the purpose of this analysis it was assumed:

All benefits accruing for movements between SESTRAN and Dundee accrued to the Dundee service
All benefits accruing for movements between SESTRAN and NESTRANS accrued to the Aberdeen service
25% of the benefit accruing for movements within the Tay area (between Montrose, Dundee and Perth) accrued to the Edinburgh to Aberdeen service (the other 75% accrues to the Glasgow to Aberdeen service)
50% of the benefit between Tay and NESTRANS accrues to the Edinburgh to Aberdeen service (the other 50% accrues to the Glasgow to Aberdeen service)

7.6 The results of the analysis are presented in Table 7.1, and as can be seen from this table it is the fast and enhanced Edinburgh to Aberdeen service that accrues the majority of the benefit on this route. It should be noted that the Edinburgh to Aberdeen service has a faster journey time due to the lower number of stations visited in the Tay and NESTRANS areas. This is facilitated by the new local area services in these areas.

Table 7.1 SESTRAN to Dundee/Angus/NESTRANS Inter-Regional Services

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SPT to Stirling/Tay/NESTRANS Inter-Regional Services

7.7 The two services under consideration here are the new Glasgow to Dundee service and the faster Glasgow to Aberdeen service. In addition to the assumptions detailed in §7.5 the following assumptions were made for the purpose of this analysis:

All benefit accruing to movements between the SPT area and Stirling, the SPT area and Perth and between Stirling and Perth accrues to the new Glasgow to Dundee service
Capital costs associated with the increased frequency (between Perth and Barnhill and between Carmuirs and Greenhill Upper) have been attributed to the new to the Dundee service. No capital costs accrue to the Aberdeen service.

7.8 The results of the analysis are presented in Table 7.2, and as can be seen from this table it is the fast and enhanced Glasgow to Aberdeen service that accrues the majority of the benefit on this route. It should be noted that the Glasgow to Aberdeen service has a faster journey time due to the lower number of stations visited in the Tay and NESTRANS areas. This is facilitated by the new local area services in these areas.

Table 7.2 SPT to Stirling/Tay/NESTRANS Inter-Regional Services

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SESTRAN to Perth Inter-Regional Service and Tay Local Service to Perth

7.9 he two services of interest here are the extension and frequency enhancement of the Edinburgh to Markinch service to Perth, so as to serve Newburgh and Oudinarde (Bridge of Earn), and the frequency enhancement to the Edinburgh to Inverness service (to give an improved express service between Perth and Edinburgh). The following assumptions were made as part of this analysis:

Benefits accruing from the new stations were attributed to the extended Markinch service
Should only the extended Markinch service be implemented the full capital cost of the Hilton to Ladybank upgrade would be incurred, however, if only the express Perth enhancement was undertaken the capital cost for the upgrade would be reduced.
Both services were in isolation assumed to capture all the benefit that movements between Perth and the SESTRAN area would accrue. This gives an optimistic viewpoint.
Benefits, operating costs and capital costs accruing or incurred between Perth and Inverness were omitted from the analysis. These data have been collated and operating costs exceed benefits.

7.10 Table 2.1 presents this analysis. As can be seen from this table the best NPV, albeit it negative, is achieved through the frequency enhancement of express services between Perth and Edinburgh. However, the BCRs between the two service options are indistinguishable. It is considered that the local service to Perth with the new stations at Newburgh and Oudinarde (Bridge of Earn) would contribute more to the planning objectives of the Tay area than the express service to Perth does for the planning objectives of the Inter-Regional grouping.

Table 7.3 SESTRAN to Perth/HIghlands Inter-Regional Services

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Dundee and NESTRANS Local Services

7.11 Table 7.4and Table 7.5 summarise the analysis for the local services within the Tay and NESTRANS areas. As can be seen neither of the Crossrail services in the NESTRANS area or the Tay Area have a positive NPV. However, the implementation of these local services means that express services between Aberdeen and Edinburgh and Glasgow do not have to stop as often. This as has been illustrated above generates a significant amount of benefit. The benefit of the local services should therefore not be considered in isolation but should be considered as a package that includes:

Dundee local services
Aberdeen Crossrail
Inverness to Aberdeen service
Edinburgh to Aberdeen service
Glasgow to Aberdeen service

7.12 Table 7.6and Table 7.7 present summary information for such a package. As can be seen with a discount rate of 3.5% it appears that such a combined package could generate a positive NPV. Obviously some degree of refinement would need to be undertaken within such a package to maximise both the manner that the package contributes to the planning objectives and the package's value for money. It should also be noted that the results presented for the Tay and NESTRANS regions any background rail growth that could arise as a result of increasing levels of road congestion.

Table 7.4 Dundee Local Services

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Table 7.5 NESTRANS Local Services

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Table 7.6 Package of NESTRANS and Tay Local Services and Glasgow and Edinburgh Inter Regional services to Aberdeen (Discount Rate 6.0%)

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Table 7.7 Package of NESTRANS and Tay Local Services and Glasgow and Edinburgh Inter Regional services to Aberdeen (Discount Rate 3.5%)

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SPT

7.13 The service improvements modelled can be divided up into a number of packages:

Those aimed at delivering new services into Glasgow Central HL. This centres around the major facilitating project of the City Union line upgrade and associated works.
Those aimed at expanding the capability of the system in areas where some spare capacity exists (primarily the Cumbernauld line).

Glasgow Central High Level

7.14 The current view regarding capacity at Glasgow Central HL is that the approach track capacity is 56 trains per hour as detailed in the Railtrack Stage 1 capacity report. However, this does not reflect the operational and platform capacity implications of Central HL station itself. It is generally considered that Central High Level station is currently operating at capacity. The modelled scenario (once committed WCML improvements are accounted for) results in Glasgow Central HL requiring more train paths than are currently required which implies that it would make Glasgow Central HL go overcapacity.

7.15 The following assumptions have been made as part of the analysis:

On the benefit side:
- Ayr, Neilston and Kilmarnock off peak enhancements - all benefits between stations on these lines to other stations in the SPT area;
- Re-routeing of E. Kilbride and Barrhead trains and off peak service enhancement of E. Kilbride service - all benefits between stations on these lines to other stations in the SPT area;
- Glasgow airport, Ibrox, Parkhead Forge and Allandar Sports Centre stations - all benefits throughout model area plus where existing services make an additional stop the disbenefit to existing users;
- Services to Falkirk from Glasgow Queen Street LL - all benefits between Falkirk and Glasgow; and
- Extension of Motherwell service to Stirling - all benefits between Motherwell, and stations to Stirling.
On the cost side:
- Capital costs for the capacity upgrade between Shields junction and Paisley Gilmour Street shared between the off peak Ayr services and the Glasgow Airport services;
- Operating costs for the Glasgow Airport to Falkirk service proportioned between the Glasgow airport analysis and the Falkirk to Glasgow analysis.

7.16 Table 7.8 ranks the new services using Central HL by NPV. It should be noted that the Glasgow Airport services represent an aggregate of the shuttle service to HL and the service to Falkirk GS. Of these two services the airport rail links study has indicated that the shuttle service to Glasgow Central HL has the best value for money. The aggregate value presented in Table 7.8 is therefore considered to be an underestimate of the NPV and BCR for the airport shuttle service. On the basis of Table 7.8 it would appear that the Shotts semi-fast service contributes the least to overall benefits and in a capacity constrained situation at Glasgow Central HL should not be considered as part of the Central HL package. Appendix B presents analysis of the train paths required within the SPT area.

Table 7.8 Services Contending For Use of Glasgow Central HL

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7.17 The package that focuses on delivering new services to Glasgow Central HL is presented in Table 7.9 (6% discount rate) and Table 7.10 (3.5% discount rate). As can be seen from this table the performance of the proposed Whifflet to Dalmuir service undermines the performance of the complete package. If the new electrified service is terminated at Anderston thereby saving operating costs and the capital expenditure required to upgrade Partick to Hyndland the performance of this service and therefore the complete package could be significantly enhanced. Our estimate suggests that with the package's NPV would improve by 16.6m (6% discount rate) or 19.5m (3.5% discount rate). It should be noted that the Dalmuir to Whifflet service examined here is not the same as the service recommended by the CSTCS.

Table 7.9 Glasgow Central HL Package (Discount rate of 6%)

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