The Scottish Government

SCOTTISH STRATEGIC RAIL STUDY
Working Paper 7 - Medium Resource Scenario

Final

December 2002

CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION
Background
Aims of this Paper
Working Paper Structure
2. REVIEW OF THE HRS AND CONTENDING SCHEMES FOR THE MRS
SESTRAN
SPT
NESTRANS
Tay Area
Inter-Regional
New Branch Lines and Spurs
New Stations
3. OPERATING AND CAPITAL COSTS
Operating Costs -Overview
Capital Costs - Overview
SESTRAN Capital Cost Estimates
SESTRAN Additional Annual Operating Costs
SPT Capital Cost Estimates
SPT Additional Annual Operating Costs
NESTRANS Capital Cost Estimates
NESTRANS Additional Annual Operating Costs
Tay Estuary Capital Cost Estimates
Tay Estuary Additional Annual Operating Costs
Inter Regional Service Capital Cost Estimates
Inter Regional Additional Annual Operating Costs
4. DEMAND
Methodology
Results Summary
5. OUTLINE COST BENEFIT APPRAISAL
Inputs
Appraisal
6. DEMAND FORECASTS SENSITIVITY TESTS
Results With 'Quality/Comfort' Factors
15% Average Fares Reduction on Long Distance Inter-Regional Movements
5% Average Fares Increase Across the Study Area
15% Reduction in Journey Times on Long distance Inter-Regional Movements
10% reduction in journey times on intra-SESTRAN and intra-SPT and between SESTRAN and SPT
A lower journey time elasticity for the core MRS test
7. SCHEME ANALYSIS
Introduction
Long Distance Inter-Regional, Tay and NESTRANS
SPT
SESTRAN
Inter-Regional
TABLES
Table 2.1 New Branch Lines and Spurs
Table 2.2 New Stations Summary
Table 3.1 SESTRAN Medium Resource Scenario
Table 3.2 SESTRAN Incremental Operating Costs m pa
Table 3.3 SPT Medium Resource Scenario
Table 3.4 SPT Incremental Operating Costs m pa
Table 3.5 NESTRANS Medium Resource Scenario
Table 3.6 NESTRANS Incremental Operating Costs m pa
Table 3.7 Tay Area Medium Resource Scenario
Table 3.8 Tay Estuary Incremental Operating Costs m pa
Table 3.9 Inter Regional Medium Resource Scenario
Table 3.10 Inter Regional Incremental Operating Costs m pa
Table 3.11 Summary of Capital and Operating Costs m
Table 4.1 Overcrowding Impacts Upon Do Minimum Passenger Journeys (000s)
Table 4.2 Summary Of Passenger Miles And Journeys Within The Study Area (000s)
Table 4.3 volumes and revenues by region for Medium Resource vs Do Minimum 2010 (000s)
Table 4.4 Do Minimum Journeys Matrix 2010
Table 4.5 Medium Resource Scenario Journeys Matrix 2010
Table 4.6 Medium resource incremental journeys matrix 2010
Table 4.7 Medium Resource Scenario % Uplift In Journeys 2010
Table 4.8 Do Minimum Passenger Miles Matrix 2010
Table 4.9 Medium Resource Passenger Miles Matrix 2010
Table 4.10 Medium Resource Scenario Incremental passenger Miles Matrix 2010
Table 4.11 Medium Resource Scenario % Uplift in Journeys 2010
Table 4.12 Do Minimum Revenue Matrix 2010
Table 4.13 Medium Resource Scenario Revenue Matrix 2010
Table 4.14 Medium Resource Scenario Incremental Revenue Matrix 2010
Table 4.15 Medium Resource Scenario % uplift in Revenue 2010
Table 5.1 Present Value of User Benefits (2000 Prices and Values)
Table 5.2 Present Value Non User Benefits (2000 Prices and Values)
Table 5.3 Medium Resource Scenario Economic Appraisal
Table 6.1 Summary Of Passenger Miles And Journeys Within The Study Area With And Without Comfort Factors (000S)
Table 6.2 15% Reduction in Average Fares on long distance inter-urban flows - Incremental Journeys over MRS (000s)
Table 6.3 15% Reduction in Average Fares on long distance inter-urban flows - Incremental Passenger-Miles over MRS (000s)
Table 6.4 15% Reduction in Average Fares on long distance inter-urban flows - Incremental Journeys over MRS (000s)
Table 6.5 15% Reduction in Average Fares on long distance inter-urban flows - Incremental Revenue over MRS (000s)
Table 6.6 15% Reduction in Average Fares on long distance inter-urban flows - Incremental passenger miles over MRS (000s)
Table 6.7 5% Increase in Average Fares - Incremental Journeys over MRS (000s)
Table 6.8 5% Increase in Average Fares - Incremental Revenue over MRS (000s)
Table 6.9 5% Increase in average fares - Incremental Passenger-Miles over MRS (000s)
Table 6.10 15% Reduction in Long Distance Inter - Regional Journey Times - Incremental Journeys over MRS (000s)
Table 6.11 15% Reduction in Long Distance Inter-Regional Journey Times - Incremental Revenue over MRS (000s)
Table 6.12 15% Reduction in Long Distance Inter-Regional Journey Times - Incremental Passenger-Miles over MRS (000s)
Table 6.13 10% Reduction in intra-SESTRAN, intra-SPT and between SESTRAN and SPT Journey Times - Incremental Journeys over MRS (000s)
Table 6.14 10% Reduction in intra-SESTRAN, intra-SPT and between SESTRAN and SPT Journey Times - Incremental Revenue over MRS (000s)
Table 6.15 10% Reduction in intra-SESTRAN, intra-SPT and between SESTRAN and SPT Journey Times - Incremental Passenger-Miles over MRS (000s)
Table 6.16 Lower Journey Time Elasticity - Incremental Journeys over MRS (000s)
Table 6.17 Lower Journey Time Elasticity - Incremental Revenue over MRS (000s)
Table 6.18 Lower Journey Time Elasticity - Incremental Passenger-Miles over MRS (000s)
Table 7.1 SESTRAN to Dundee/Angus/NESTRANS Inter-Regional Services
Table 7.2 SPT to Stirling/Tay/NESTRANS Inter-Regional Services
Table 7.3 SESTRAN to Perth/HIghlands Inter-Regional Services
Table 7.4 Dundee Local Services
Table 7.5 NESTRANS Local Services
Table 7.6 Package of NESTRANS and Tay Local Services and Glasgow and Edinburgh Inter Regional services to Aberdeen (Discount Rate 6.0%)
Table 7.7 Package of NESTRANS and Tay Local Services and Glasgow and Edinburgh Inter Regional services to Aberdeen (Discount Rate 3.5%)
Table 7.8 Services Contending For Use of Glasgow Central HL
Table 7.9 Glasgow Central HL Package (Discount rate of 6%)
Table 7.10 Glasgow Central HL Package (Discount rate of 3.5%)
Table 7.11 SPT Cumbernauld Line Enhancements Plus Allandar Sports Centre and Parkhead Forge Stations
Table 7.12 Service Contenders for Use of Edinburgh Waverley (Discount Rate is 6%)
Table 7.13 Services Using Western Approach to Edinburgh Waverley By Design Option
Table 7.14 Edinburgh Waverley Options (Discount rate 6%)
Table 7.15 Edinburgh Waverley Options (Discount rate 3.5%)
Table 7.16 Services Using Western Approach to Edinburgh Waverley By Design option (Sub-surface station at Edinburgh Airport)
Table 7.17 Edinburgh Waverley Options as an Incremental Addition to a Sub Surface Station and through routeing of services at Edinburgh Airport (Discount rate 6%)
Table 7.18 East Stirling Station
APPENDICES
A Demand Forecasting Service Definitions (Medium Resource Scenario)
B Train Paths and Capacity Analysis
C Demand Forecasts - Medium Resource Scenario
D The SSRS and the Rail Links to Glasgow and Edinburgh Airports Study and the Central Scotland Transport Corridor Studies