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STATISTICS PUBLICATION NOTICE

27 ^th February 2003

RESULTS OF TEACHER WORKFORCE PLANNING FOR 2003/04

A SCOTTISH EXECUTIVE NATIONAL STATISTICS PUBLICATION

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The results of the latest round of teacher workforce planning are published today by the Scottish Executive. This Publication Notice gives the following information from the planning process

• pupil and teacher projections, updated from those published in August 2002.
• information on the numbers of teachers joining and leaving the teacher workforce.
• information on the number of vacancies in schools.
• an estimate of the age-profile of the teacher workforce
• demand for new Gaelic medium and Roman Catholic approved teachers, as estimated by education authorities.
• advice provided on the future requirement for newly qualified teachers.

Pupil Projections

Projected numbers of pupils have been updated using the population projections obtained from the Government Actuary's Department, based on the 2001 population census.

The main findings were: -

• The number of pupils in pre-school centres is expected to decrease from 104,000 (September 2001) to around 95,000 in 2012. This represents a fall of 9 per cent, and is in line with the expected decrease in the number of children of pre-school age.
• The number of pupils in publicly funded primary schools is projected to continue to fall steadily from the September 2001 level of 420,500. The total is estimated to fall to 371,000 in 2007, down 12 per cent, and to 349,000 in 2012, 17 per cent less than 2001.
• The number of pupils in publicly funded secondary schools is projected to increase gradually from the September 2001 level of 316,000 to over 317,000 in 2003. A steady fall is then anticipated so that the number in 2012 is estimated to be 277,000, 13 per cent less than at 2001.
• The numbers of pupils in publicly funded special schools and independent schools are both projected to fall, in line with the anticipated decrease in the number of children of school age. The projections do not take account of changing trends in the mainstreaming of special school pupils.

Teacher Projections

Projected teacher figures are based on the projected pupil numbers, and information from the September 2001 School Census. The figures incorporate extra teachers needed for the implementation of the agreement 'A Teaching Profession for the 21 ^st Century' (the teachers pay and conditions agreement) in the primary and secondary sectors.

The main findings were:

• The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded primary schools is projected to initially remain fairly constant around the September 2001 level of 22,300, before falling to 21,000 by 2012.
• The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded secondary schools is projected to initially remain fairly constant at the September 2001 level of 24,600, before falling to 24,000 by 2007 and to 22,000 by 2012.
• In the publicly funded special sector, teacher numbers are expected to decrease gradually, in line with the projected gradual decline in the number of pupils at special schools. The projections do not take account of changing trends in the mainstreaming of special school pupils.

Teachers joining or leaving the workforce

• From the available information about 5% of the workforce joined or re-joined during the year. Of these, 60% were first appointments, and 17% were returning after maternity leave.
• From the available information about 5% of the workforce left during the year. Of these, 30% were taking maternity leave, and another 30% were retiring. 5% were known to be taking up teaching posts outwith Scotland.

Teacher Vacancies at September 2002

The main findings of a snap-shot survey from education authorities were:

• There were just under 700 vacancies on Friday 20 ^th September 2002, which was approximately 1% of the full teaching complement. Less than a third of these had been vacant for more than 3 months.
• The highest vacancy rates were in General Science (4%, although this involves small numbers), Mathematics, learning support and in special schools (each 2%).

Demand for new Gaelic medium and Roman Catholic approved teachers,

Local authorities were asked to estimate the number of new Gaelic medium and Roman Catholic approved teachers they would need over the following seven years. The main findings were:

• In total, it is estimated that around 210 Gaelic medium teachers are required over the next seven years in primary schools, and around 106 Gaelic medium teachers over the next seven years in secondary schools.
• Making adjustments for those LAs who did not provide estimates, it is estimated that a total of 1,390 Roman Catholic approved teachers are required over the next seven years in the primary sector. The numbers required increase from 150 to around 200 each year by 2005/2006, and remain stable until 2009/10.
• In the secondary sector it is estimated that at total of 1,175 Roman Catholic approved teachers are required over the next seven years. The numbers vary between 145 and 185 per year over the projection period. The final three years see the highest estimated demand.

It is acknowledged that these are very much rough estimates provided on request by local authorities. It is noted that they result in a disproportionately high requirement for new Roman Catholic approved teachers, which is difficult to validate. It is therefore planned to replace this survey by an element of modelling, following the next teacher census.

Requirement for newly qualified teachers

Changes in the maximum class contact time for teachers by 2004 and 2006 result in large fluctuations in the demand for new teachers. As this would be impractical for teacher training establishments, the modelled data has been smoothed, resulting in some teachers being identified ahead of need. The main results are:

• Just over 1,000 primary and pre-school teachers are required for each year up to 2006, taking into account of the changes in class contact time. The number then falls to about 900 before rising each year due to the age profile of the teaching workforce.
• The number of new secondary school teachers needed is also around 1,000 in 2004, and then rising each year from 900 in 2005, again due to the age profile of the teacher workforce.

Table 1 Projected number of pupils by school sector.

Table 2 Projected number of FTE teachers in publicly funded schools, by school sector.

Chart 1 Number of pupils and FTE teachers in publicly funded primary and secondary schools.

Table 3 Information on teachers joining and leaving the workforce

Table 4 Vacancies in schools as at 20 ^th September 2002

Chart 2 Estimated age profile of teacher workforce.

Chart 3 Modelled future requirement of newly qualified teachers.

NOTES TO NEWS EDITORS

1. The information in this Publication Notice is derived from:

a) Census of Pre-school Education Centres, 2000 - pupil counts and 1999 teacher counts

b) School Census September 1999, 2000, 2001 - pupil and teacher counts.

c) Government Actuary's Department - 2001 population census based interim population projections.

2. The methodology employed in projecting numbers of children in pre-school centres uses the 2000 Pre-school Census pupil counts, split by age, and population projections.

The assumption is made that uptake rates, in response to the Government commitment to provide a pre-school place for all three and four year olds, by 2002, will be:

(i) around 85 per cent for 'three year olds' (ante pre-school year).

(ii) around 98 per cent for 'four year olds' (pre-school year).

4. The methodology for the pupil projections firstly compares the School Census pupil counts, split for the publicly funded and independent sectors, with the corresponding population data. Within these sectors, the pupil counts are further split into primary, secondary and special sectors. A two-year average (2000 and 2001) is then taken of the proportion of pupils of a given age in each of these sectors. Forward projections are then calculated for these sectors by applying these proportions to the future population estimates.

5. The projected number of pupils aged 16, 17 and 18 is derived from the application of staying-on rates to the estimates for 14 years olds. The projections assume that the staying-on rates for 16 and 17 year-olds increase gradually at a rate defined by the average increase over the past 5 years.

6. This means that the staying-on rate for those aged 16, which was 74 per cent in 2001, is projected to rise to 77 per cent in 2012. For those aged 17, the staying-on rate of 39 per cent in 2001 is projected to rise to 44 per cent in 2012. The staying-on rate used for 18 year olds remains at 1.0 per cent.

7. This technique of incrementing the staying-on rates each year has not been applied to the independent secondary sector. This is because staying on rates here are already very high and so have limited room to increase - the effect on the projections would be very small indeed.

8. The projections for pre-school and primary school age children are increasingly affected by predicted birth rates - this introduces a greater element of uncertainty. The fall in projected numbers is principally due to very low birth rates over the past few years. The population projections, which operate from a 2001 base, predict a further pronounced decline in birth rates over the period covered.

9. The primary and secondary teacher projections firstly consider pupil and teacher counts from the School Census on a school-by-school basis. FTE teacher numbers are then forecast for each school, based on the projected school roll and pupil/teacher ratio, determined by size of school.

10. Additional teachers needed as a result of the teachers pay and conditions agreement are incorporated in the teacher projections. The two specific factors from the agreement giving rise to an increased demand for teachers are:

(a) Reduction in class contact time to 22.5 hours per week.

(b) Reduction of teacher probationary period to one year, with 70% class contact time of a fully registered teacher.

11. Special school teacher projections are based on projected number of pupils in special schools, and current pupil/teacher ratios, taken from the September 2001 School Census.

12. Projected teacher figures are fed into the Teacher Workforce Planning model, which estimates the number of new teachers that will be needed each year to meet this overall demand. The model takes account of a range of other relevant information, such as age profiles and numbers of teachers entering and leaving the profession. Note that the Teacher Workforce Planning model operates on a headcount (rather than FTE) basis, as its main aim is to advise on how many students should be admitted to teacher training courses each year.

13. All tables are available on the Scottish Executive website at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00240-00.asp.

14. Public enquiries (non-media) about the information contained in this Publication Notice should be addressed to Mal Cooke, Education and Children Statistics, SEED, 1-A Victoria Quay, Edinburgh, EH6 6QQ. Telephone : 0131-244-1689

or e-mail : ea.stats@scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Contact: John Booth : 0131 244 4001

Publication Notice:

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