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Indicators of Sustainable Development for Scotland

Indicator 7. Climate Change

Million tonnes of greenhouse gases carbon equivalent (weighted by Global Warming Potential)

Source: NETCEN

Note: Totals may not sum due to the effect of rounding. Scottish carbon dioxide emissions were first published in 2000 for 1990 and 1995. Scottish emissions data for 1998 and subsequent years, are being published annually.

The relevance of the indicator

Our climate in Scotland is changing to become wetter and wilder. The changing climate is associated with the emission of greenhouse gases. We need to act to reduce those emissions and to deal with the harmful consequences of climate change such as flooding.

Detailed definition and source details

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are obliged to compile inventories of the six greenhouse gases targeted by the Kyoto Protocol. The inventories are based on emission source and sink categories agreed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Different greenhouse gases have varying capacities to cause global warming. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) provides a measure of the relative radiative effects of the emission of various greenhouse gases, accounting for the potency of the gas as well as the amount emitted. It is possible to estimate the overall global warming effect of Scottish greenhouse gas emissions by weighting the emission of each gas by its GWP. SF ₆, PFCs and HFCs are the most potent, with GWP up to several thousand times greater than carbon dioxide, although, as the table shows, carbon dioxide is by far the most significant. Data for 1990, 1995, 1998 and 1999 were taken from the report compiled by NETCEN for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the devolved administrations ¹⁶. Emissions projections are also discussed in the Jan 2002 edition of the Scottish Economic Report¹⁷

Trends

Total greenhouse gas emissions for Scotland fell by 4.8% between 1990 and 1999 to 19.9 million tonnes of carbon equivalent. 1999 emissions of UK greenhouse gases were 14% below their 1990 levels. DTI produces projections of energy use and carbon emissions. For 1990-2020, steady growth is expected in energy use, albeit at a rate lower than that of economic growth. Due to the size of the Scottish economy, the results for emissions are extremely sensitive to potential investment changes in the market for electricity generation. Amongst other pertinent considerations are what happens to the flow of electricity through the interconnector, and the effect that changes in world oil prices can have on the relative competitiveness of coal. These issues, along with the fact that all modelling is subject to uncertainty, make projections for carbon emissions in Scotland a very imprecise art. Based on work done for the Scottish Executive we can, however, estimate that the combined effects of the UK and Scottish Climate Change Programmes in Scotland would lead to a reduction on 1990 emissions levels by 2010 ranging from 4.7 per cent to 16.6 per cent.

Further disaggregation

In 1999, Scotland's contribution of carbon dioxide was 16.6 million tonnes of carbon equivalent (11.1% of the UK total), a fall of 0.6 million tonnes from 1990. The largest source of carbon dioxide emissions is from the energy sector, whilst the combination of agriculture, forestry and land use is the second largest source. Total emissions of methane are declining and have fallen by 18% from 1990 to 1999. The major sources of methane are waste disposal, coal mining, leakage from the gas distribution system and agriculture.

The chart and table on p.17 show how different greenhouse gases contribute to the total. Further disaggregation by source is shown in the table on p.19.

Million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland by sector, weighted by Global Warming Potential (carbon equivalent)

Source: NETCEN

Note: Totals may not sum due to the effect of rounding.

Target

The Scottish Executive is committed to making an equitable contribution to the UK Kyoto target of a 12.5% reduction in 1990 levels of UK greenhouse gas emissions by 2008-2012.

Action

We published the Scottish Climate Change Programme¹⁸ in November 2000. The Programme sets out the measures that will deliver Scotland's contribution to the UK Climate Change Programme, aimed at meeting the UK Kyoto commitment and moving the UK as a whole toward the domestic goal of a 20% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2010.

Raising awareness of climate change issues in Scotland is an important element of the Scottish Climate Change Programme. Climate change features as part of our Do a little, change a lot environmental awareness campaign ¹⁹. This element of the campaign seeks to make the link between everyday actions and climate change by encouraging domestic energy efficiency and reduced car use for short journeys. An interactive website, designed for Scottish schoolchildren, was developed for the Scottish Executive and is available at www.ltscotland.com/climatechange.

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