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Indicators of Sustainable Development for Scotland

Indicator 3. Population structure

Proportion of population which is working age

Estimated and projected population

Source: GROS mid-year estimates and GAD 2001 based population projections

Notes: Working age for men is taken as 16-64 and for women 16-59 until 2010 rising to 16-64 in 2020.

Pensionable age is taken as all those above working age.

Non-adjusted figures in the chart do not take account of the changes to the retirement age of women between 2010 and 2020 that result in the equalisation of pensionable ages for men and women at 65 in 2020.

Figures for 1982-2000 are subject to revision. The publication of the 2001 mid-year estimates, based on the 2001 Census, indicated that the adjustments made for underenumeration in 1991 were excessive and need to be revisited and revisions for population estimates covering the series 1982-2000 will be made by end-February 2003. Although subject to revision, the trends presented here will not change.

The relevance of the indicator

A sustainable Scotland will include a balance of children, people of working age and older people. We need to ensure that we retain the talents and skills of people of all ages.

Choice of Indicator

The proportion of the population which is of working age will not only give an indication of the potential size of the workforce in Scotland, but will also gauge the degree of dependency within the economy (i.e. those who are not of working age).

Detailed definition and source details

The indicator is defined as the proportion of the Scottish population that is of working age. Working age is currently defined as males aged 16-64 and females aged 16-59. Between 2010 and 2020 the pensionable age for women will increase in steps from 60 to 65, with a resulting increase in the number of people of working age. The data are taken from the Registrar General for Scotland's annual mid year population estimates for 1981-2001 and from the Government Actuary Department's (GAD) 2001-based population projections.

Trends

Following small increases in the early eighties, the percentage of the population that is working age has remained largely static at 62 per cent. This is projected to rise to 62.6% by 2010 and to peak at 63.4% in 2019, before falling to 61.5% in 2025. The chart shows that without the change in the retirement age of women, the projected percentage of people of working age would otherwise start to fall in 2011, dropping to 57.6% by 2025. The average age of the working population is projected to increase, with an increasing percentage aged over 50. Over the whole period the percentage of population below 16 is projected to fall (from 23% in 1981 to 16% in 2025), while the percentage of those of pensionable age will rise.

Further disaggregation

The data can be split into urban and rural areas on the basis of council area (see the Annex for allocation of council areas to urban and rural). The data for urban and rural areas shown are not adjusted for the increase in the pensionable age for women. The data can be further disaggregated by council area and gender and are available on the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) website ⁹.

Source: GROS 2000-based population projections.

Note: Population estimates for 1982-2000 are subject to revision and will be available by end-February 2003. Although subject to change, the overall trend will not change.

Target

No target - an assessment over time of the trend and rate of change will need to be made.

Action

We aim to maintain and foster the wide range of communities throughout Scotland, and to influence population trends, particularly the outflow of younger people. Ensuring that the right jobs are on offer within the Scottish economy will help encourage the young to stay and the more experienced to return. A more detailed outline can be found in the Framework for Economic Development in Scotland¹⁰.

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