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Review of Scotland's Cities - The Analysis

4.7.2 Determinants of Neighbourhood Satisfaction

More detailed analysis of the determinants of neighbourhood satisfaction in Scotland have been undertaken by Kearns for Communities Scotland. ⁴⁴ His analysis of neighbourhood satisfaction confirmed that the general appearance of an area (graffiti, cleanliness etc.) and satisfaction with the home were the most prevalent shapers of neighbourhood satisfaction, emphasising the importance not just of housing programmes but also the imperative of providing better quality public environments. Crime levels and the quality of schools were also important in shaping satisfaction with city living.

Housing services, in the sense of management by councils and other social providers, have great significance in places owned by such landlords and crime really matters where rates are high, but it is education which is most widely cited as a neighbourhood quality influence. Thus, whilst households may be dissatisfied with other services, such as street lighting or transport, these feelings were relatively unimportant in terms of determining their overall neighbourhood satisfaction. However, Kearns' analysis also highlighted the importance of local retail provision for the satisfaction levels of those living in more deprived neighbourhoods.

In the previous chapter attention was drawn to the need to improve school performance. That analysis highlighted differences across the cities and the differential levels of attainment between city and non-city school children in pupil performance at age 16. However, that analysis also indicated the striking differentials between cities in terms of attainment levels in post compulsory education. Thus, pupils from Aberdeen and Edinburgh who continue their education into standard grades 5 and 6, show levels of attainment which are comparable with that of their non-urban counterparts. However, at the higher levels of achievement the gap between Glasgow and Dundee and Edinburgh and Aberdeen widens significantly.

Neighbourhood level analysis emphasises the vast variation within cities of levels of pupil attainment and engagement in post-compulsory schooling. In Glasgow, whilst schools in more affluent neighbourhoods perform at levels close to or above the Scottish average, those serving deprived catchments are performing at the very lowest levels. This simply reinforces opportunity gaps and perpetuates the relationship between urban deprivation and pupil performance across Scotland. However more local analysis shows that even in those parts of Glasgow and Dundee with the severest levels of deprivation, state education is performing well in some neighbourhoods. An important corollary however, is the fact that in more prosperous Edinburgh and Aberdeen, average performances at age sixteen fall below the Scottish average. Whilst this disparity disappears when levels of achievement at age 17 and 18 are measured, this suggests that less able and possibly more disadvantaged pupils are not achieving at levels which reflect the overall prosperity of the city. There is then the possibility of upgrading educational performance in the cities and of reducing the extent to which it acts as a spur to suburban movement for those who have incomes.

Kearns' work also highlighted the significance of the impact of crime and disorderly behaviour on neighbourhood satisfactions; reinforcing prior Scottish results on crime and residential choice by Fyfe and others. ⁴⁵ It is important to be clear on the incidence and the impact of crime. Its effects are severe for victims, but the resultant fear of crime in which perceptions reinforce realities is also important in shaping residential choices and especially moves to the suburbs and the separation of low and high income groups. The Executive has placed a high priority in reducing crime so it is important to outline the pattern in cities and consider what the Executive is doing to improve the position.

4.8 CITY CRIME AND NEIGHBOURHOOD CHOICES

4.8.1 Police Recorded Crime Rates

Police recorded statistics shows that crime is most prevalent around the population centres of the central belt (Edinburgh and Glasgow), along with Aberdeen and Dundee. Other areas showing high crime rates include Inverclyde, Falkirk, West Dunbartonshire and Renfrewshire council areas. The absolute number of recorded crimes and 'clear-up' rates are shown for each city in Table 4.9. The figures also make clear that in the short period examined, following on similar trends since 1996, recorded crime levels and rates were falling in the cities.

TABLE 4.9: Number of Crimes Recorded by the Police and percentage Cleared Up by Council Area and Year⁴⁶

Crime rates, per 10,000 population for each council area shows that in 1999, Aberdeen City had the highest crime rate with over 1,500 crimes per 10,000 population, though its rapid reduction by 13.4% over the two years meant that more slowly reducing Glasgow (at 4% reduction) was the highest crime rate city in 2001 (Chart 4.8). Aberdeen generally shows comparable crime rates to Glasgow for 2000 and 2001 whilst Dundee and Edinburgh show similar levels across the three years.

4.8.2 Crime Types

Although the crime rates per 10,000 show only slight variation between cities, closer analysis of types of offence that are prevalent in each of the four cities suggests that different crimes may be characteristic of the four areas (Chart 4.9).

Glasgow reported the highest number of non-sexual crimes of violence with 122 per 10,000 population compared to 50 for Edinburgh, 42 for Aberdeen and 37 for Dundee. Glasgow also had the highest rate of crimes of carrying an offensive weapon with 47 per 10,000 compared to 16 for Dundee, 13 for the City of Edinburgh and 11 for Aberdeen. The rate for serious assaults was also considerably higher for Glasgow than the other four cities with 35 per 10,000 population compared to 9 for City of Edinburgh, 8 for Aberdeen and 7 for Dundee City.

Rates of domestic housebreaking for 2001 were higher in Aberdeen than for any of the other four cities with 144 per 10,000 population compared to 104 for Dundee, 90 for Glasgow and 56 for the City of Edinburgh. These patterns do change over time, however, vandalism varies little either by year or between the four cities with rates of 256 per 10,000 population for Glasgow compared to 248 for Dundee, 213 in Edinburgh and 207 in Aberdeen for the 2001 recording year. Glasgow is the only city to have shown a marked increase in vandalism rates from 1999 rising from 186 to 213 in 2000 and 256 in 2001.

Overall, police recorded crimes per 10,000 population would indicate a higher prevalence of personal crimes in Glasgow compared to the other Scottish cities, whilst household offences are greater in Aberdeen and Dundee with vandalism showing similar prevalence levels across the four cities.

4.8.3 Scottish Crime Survey

It is important to remember that not all crimes are reported to the police and, of those crimes that are, not all are subsequently recorded. The Scottish Crime Survey (SCS) provides an alternative measure of crime to police statistics and can also usefully inform an analysis of crime in Scotland by rural and urban populations (Table 4.10).

TABLE 4.10 Prevalence of Household⁴⁷(HH) and Personal⁴⁸Victimisation by Settlement Size.

Personal crimes are most prevalent in the very small settlements and cities. Household crimes are relatively high in the cities, but more of a problem in large towns. Interestingly, however, prevalence of household offences in the least densely populated areas is also relatively high, suggesting that crimes such as housebreaking, vandalism, theft of and from a motor vehicle as well as other household thefts are not uniquely characteristic of urban settlements. Data from the SCS supports the police recorded statistics for 2001 insofar as highlighting that both the overall number of crimes and prevalence of certain types of crime vary as a consequence of geographical location, but the prevalence of some types of offending are similar across settlements of varying size. Not all cities have higher crime incidence than all towns, and towns and villages are not unproblematic.

Any comprehensive review of crime in Scotland's cities would therefore need to account for idiosyncrasies of individual cities, including analysis of the economic, housing and population characteristics of each of the Scottish cities, before a reliable rationale could be offered which might account for the differences in crime rates between the cities.

4.8.4 Fear of Crime

In addition to actual victimisation, it is also possible, using Scottish Crime Survey data, to explore geographical variation in fear of crime. Respondents from lower income groups are more likely to report that crime is an extremely serious problem in their area; however for all income groups, those living in rural areas are less likely to perceive crime as a problem than those in urban areas. Those in the 16-24 age band were less likely to view crime as an extremely serious problem than older groups and this was especially true of those living in rural areas (with 16% of young people reporting that they view crime as a problem in their area compared to 25% in more urban locations).

• For older age groups the percentage of people viewing crime as an extremely serious problem in their area is greater in urban than rural areas but the percentage of those viewing crime as quite a serious problem is greater in rural than urban areas. In built up areas, young people (77%) feel more safe than those in the 25 to 59 year old category (72%) and those in the 60 plus category (58%). This pattern is not true of those in rural areas where the middle age group report higher levels of feelings of safety (82%) than either the young (71%) or elderly group (70%). Therefore, despite being at high risk of personal victimisation, young people living in urban areas do not demonstrate feelings of being unsafe in their community (Table 4.11).

TABLE 4.11: Feelings of Safety by Age Group and Urban/Rural split

4.8.5 Crime, Cities and Neighbourhoods

Data point towards high crime rates in Scottish cities with different crimes being characteristic of different cities. Fear of crime also varies as a function of urban and rural location but may also be influenced more broadly by age and social class variables. Kearns establishes that crime and fear of crime patterns are major shapers of neighbourhood satisfaction and there is survey evidence for Glasgow and Edinburgh that perceived crime rates do influence location choices. A 1997 survey by the Glasgow Alliance for example, indicated that whilst the most significant influences on households moving out of the city to the suburbs were house type and size (between a third and a half of respondents cited house size, type, garden etc. as the key factor), a fifth did cite the avoidance of crime as a decentralising force (and a sixth better schools).

Research has also established that people living in disadvantaged neighbourhoods encounter not only higher crime rates but display a greater sensitivity to crime, so that in such areas actual crime levels are ratcheted into proportionately higher levels of fear of crime. In such areas, Kearns has established that crime and fear of crime were more significant issues in detracting from the area's amenity, than they were for households in other area types. So falling overall city crime, but crime which is more intensely experienced in the poorest places, is the broad pattern that policy has to address. The probability of being burgled or subjected to violent crime is not greatest in more affluent areas, but peaks in the poorest places. Fyfe has reported that one third of households living in what the survey classifies as 'poor council estates' have experienced a burglary, compared to only a quarter of those in 'prosperous home owner neighbourhoods'. More starkly, the risks of suffering violent crime are much more significant for residents of poor council estates than those residents of prosperous owner occupied areas (three or four times greater).

Patterns of crime illustrate the problem of a high city average being largely attributable to a restricted set of places. Although those who choose locations outside of our cities cite concern about city crime as a major factor for leaving the city, their actual experience of city crime is somewhat more limited. This does mean that the subset of poorest neighbourhoods are typified by these difficulties, and crime rates in the worst neighbourhoods are a continuing threat to the survival of these places; they may be abandoned without the housing provision being critically bad and it may be that it is the neighbourhood rather than the home that becomes unliveable. Policy may simply be mixing up, in causality terms, low housing demand with high crime.

Similar patterns and issues arise in relation to other forms of anti-social behaviour, not all of which are crimes. The Scottish Household Survey asked households about problems they encountered within their neighbourhoods (Chart 4.10). Although most respondents had no experience of these problems, a significant minority had some or a lot of experience. The most commonly experienced problem for all cities was 'groups of young people hanging about'. Glasgow scored consistently worst (highest) in terms of experience of each of the problems. In all the major cities, a significant minority of residents have to put up with vandalism, young people hanging about, noisy neighbours, rubbish and litter, and people drinking or using drugs.

And these are the same places where crime is at its worst and most commonly they are manifested in particular parts of the social rented sector. Over a quarter of social rented tenants in Glasgow stated that experience of people drinking or using drugs was very common, almost a third of tenants in Edinburgh lived in neighbourhoods where rubbish and litter are very common, a third of Dundee's tenants have fairly common experience of vandalism, and one fifth of Aberdeen's tenants have very common experience of people drinking or using drugs.

Much of the recent attention directed towards urban crime and disorder issues has arisen in the context of 'urban renaissance' discussions concerned with 'bringing back' more affluent households to cities. The evidence from the Scottish cities suggests that we may need a somewhat different interpretation and approach. Firstly, it has to be said, the issue is not about primarily bringing people back, rather it is about encouraging them to stay in the city as they move from young to family households. Secondly, there is ample evidence that within our cities, there are high quality and high house price neighbourhoods which, far from displaying any signs of flight, are manifesting relatively higher property values over time. The policy requirement is to encourage the supply of more such neighbourhoods and this is a key challenge for city partnerships and authorities. Thirdly, it is clear that in making that provision there will have to be greater regard to resident perceptions about safety and school quality. Gated communities and segmented schools may be the easiest route to making new middle class estates within our cities. But they will have limited success if the core problems of poor housing, poor education and crime and disorder are not met where they are most acute. Urban Renaissance will only be sustainable in Scotland's cities if we think city-wide and link actions for the least well off to our desire to have more income diversity within our cities.

However, it has to be stressed that the most typical trajectory of neighbourhood change in Scotland's cities over the last quarter century has been improvement, not decline. The great majority of neighbourhoods in the Scottish cities have good quality housing, access to amenities, and an absence of socially disruptive behaviours. They are neighbourhoods which do not depreciate the housing stock, rather they contain and they allow housing choices with satisfactory outcomes.

4.8.6 Improving Neighbourhoods

Despite the overall satisfactory state of neighbourhoods and housing in our cities, at least according to the residents, there are established and emergent issues regarding neighbourhood options within our cities. The recent Community Regeneration Statement has set out the ways in which the Executive intends to build upon current progress in regeneration, improving mainstream services, integrating services, place and people policies through community planning and strengthening community social capital. As noted at the outset of this chapter, the overall set of neighbourhoods within a city, and not just the wellbeing of each one, is a broader concern for city and city-region policy. Whilst adopting the new priorities and principles of the Community Regeneration Statement, and leaving possibilities for new change delivery vehicles to Chapter 8, further actions might help to secure citywide progress. For instance:

• Advice, indicators and analysis for Local Housing Strategies could be expanded to develop a better understanding of the pattern of neighbourhoods and neighbourhood change within our cities and city-regions; to inform neighbourhood regeneration strategies;
• Understanding of quality and change issues could be applied to successful as well as declining neighbourhoods;
• Whilst still prioritising resources for change in the less popular neighbourhoods of the social rented sector, more attention could be given to the existence of severe deprivation and decline issues in a few areas of older private housing, often close to city centres, in area regeneration and improvement grant strategies;
• More innovative thought could be given to the provision of quality and creative neighbourhoods within the private sector, and as to whether voluntary neighbourhood mechanisms to maintain neighbourhood interaction and quality could be encouraged;
• Councils could consider how to encourage the supply of the right mix of neighbourhood products across the quality spectrum to retain existing populations and attract the new; and
• More strategic thought could be given to the new housing developments taking place within our cities (for example, few flats for younger households provide lifts, but in a decade this requirement will begin to change significantly) and their implications for wider city-regions (for example successful development of family homes in Glasgow and Dundee could mean problems for city-region suburbs in light of falling numbers of households with families).

Communities Scotland, in conjunction with key regeneration partners, might usefully take a lead for Scotland in stimulating innovation, design, planning and practice for neighbourhoods and in establishing key understandings of how our cities and neighbourhoods are changing. Consideration should also be given to whether successful neighbourhoods may require a local policy framework. These might in turn boost efforts to place community planning at the core of integrating service provision and spatial policies at a more local scale. Meanwhile, the spread of household and neighbourhood choices well beyond core boundaries and out into the city-regions means that community planning in one authority will face demands to mesh with the wider city-region pattern of not just community plans but land use plans. In a joined-up world, linked places need not just holistic policies, but also integrated planning.

4.9 BETTER CITIES FOR LIVING

The discussion above has emphasised the 'big picture' outcomes for housing and neighbourhood choices in the Scottish cities and it has emphasised the place impacts of long term system change. That emphasis, in this Cities Review, can be justified, but it is always important to emphasise that beneath the generality of outcomes for a city or a tenure sector or even a single neighbourhood, outcomes for particular kinds of people or groups may be much better or worse than the average. Special needs in housing are important local issues and the adequacy of housing and neighbourhoods within a city may differ for households at different stages of the life course or for different ethnic groups.

A concern emerged in interviews during the Review that the Executive's approach to social justice issues is still only thinly applied at more local delivery levels. The challenge can be made that there has not been, for instance, an audit of how city housing and neighbourhood policies impact any of the key groups of concern or of how they impact our specific social justice indicators. For instance, there are equalities concerns within the social justice agenda, and some of these concerns are of city and neighbourhood salience, for instance how ethnic minority communities fare within our cities. It could be argued that agencies are often insufficiently sensitive to these issues and concerns. Are there commitments in Scotland's cities to use the strength of ethnic diversity to make our cities more varied and interesting, let alone fair? Some of the southern English cities such as Birmingham offer strong lessons about what ethnic awareness and variety can contribute.

Much has been accomplished in delivering an overall framework for social justice but city and neighbourhood transmission mechanisms, from spending to success, could be scrutinised and sharpened, as they are important in overall city policy. There are perhaps two important differences in emphasis in the Scottish discussion about urban renaissance. First, and perhaps because of the more pro-city policies we have long pursued, we act from an already well established basic confidence that Scotland's cities are already enjoying some substantial recovery as places to live. We are, in fact, less sceptical about the prospect of renaissance. Secondly, the prevalent concept of renaissance is not simply about getting the more affluent back into cities. Much of local planning and delivery and national policy and debate directly conjoin that issue with a concern to make life better for those who already live in the cities. This may reflect different social attitudes to poverty and affluence, but it may also recognise a reality that in Scotland's sharply income mixed cities, the affluent can neither drive away from nor extensively distance themselves from the externalities of poverty. Social justice strategies in the cities ultimately benefit everybody.

When viewed as aggregates, in a UK and European context, our cities score highly on cultural, physical and environmental qualities. As aggregates, they score highly on quality of life indicators and at a more disaggregated level the most common pattern of neighbourhood change is of quality improvement and rising property values. But setting these achievements beside the still considerable challenges of poor public housing neighbourhoods and urban inequalities, it is clear that though a lot has been done, there is still much to do.

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