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DETERMINED TO SUCCEED - A REVIEW OF ENTERPRISE IN EDUCATION: EVIDENCE REPORT

ANNEXE 4 BUSINESS AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
SCHOOL LEAVERS AND THEIR QUALIFICATIONS

BUSINESSES AND THEIR SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT

Source: Scottish Economic Statistics http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/ses2002

BUSINESS TRENDS

Scottish Executive figures indicate a growth of 93,000 in the number of jobs in registered businesses between 1997 and 2000, with 435,000 created and 342,000 lost. New net job creation appeared to be in large businesses. ( http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/ses2002 )

The European Observatory for SMEs Sixth report (2000) suggests that trends are for large firms to account for an increasing share of the economy and that this will be reinforced by the single currency and globalisation.

On the other hand, a Foresight Report suggests that SMEs will be the driving force of the 21st century economy with a predicted increase in the number of SMEs in the UK as a whole. However, by 2010 the majority of these will be new business and very few of today's SMEs will still be in existence (Foresight, April 2002).

This is not necessarily a contradiction as there is evidence that there is a growth in self-employment. There may be a greater number of SMEs, but they will be even smaller employing a smaller share of the workforce.

What is evident is that there is a great deal of fluctuation in the commercial and industrial sector. Businesses grow and recruit more staff, others reduce their workforce and change size-band, and others close altogether.

Global organizations do not necessarily have commitment to local workforces; locally grown businesses seek cheaper labour in other parts of the world. So, for the individual, a job in a large or medium company is no guarantee of a long term employment.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

Declining overall population

Scotland's population is projected to decline over the next 30 years. Other parts of the UK are still increasing, but will start to decline around the mid 2030s. In Scotland the population compared to the UK total is estimated as

Ageing population/workforce

Change in the composition of Scotland's population is estimated as follows

This represents a decline of 13% in under 16s, of 4% in working age and a 25% increase in people of pensionable age.

In respect to those of working age it is estimated that 25-34 age group will decline by 20-25%, 35-44 age group will decline by 13-15% and 45-64 age group will increase by around 20%.

Source: Brown R, 2000

School leaver destinations

Young people leaving school in 2001 went to the following destinations:

This represents around 13,500 young people entering the labour market on leaving school in the year 2001. However, with some 52% (nearly 30,000) of school leavers continuing in further and higher education, preparation for further study remains an important priority for schools. If EfWE activities are to be valued by that group, recognition and acceptability of such activities in schools by HE and FE is important. FE and HE should, of course, build on Education for Work and Enterprise as part of their own agenda.

(Scottish Executive, 18 December 2001 at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00131-00.asp )

Implications

Declining population; ageing workforce; fewer young people to enter workforce; young people entering workforce later. Employers need to invest in existing workforce; they have an interest in investing in the future workforce for which they will be in increasing competition. Young people too need to be aware of the volatility of the job market and the need for self-reliance.

SCOTTISH CREDIT AND QUALIFICATIONS FRAMEWORK (EXTRACT)

The SCQF extends to level 12 at which Doctorate awards are positioned. Other post school awards and SVQs are placed progressively on higher points on the scale.

The position of SVQs gives a broad indication of their place in the Framework. Views vary as to where they could be placed, and awards may be made up of a mix of levels of units. Within vocational frameworks and in the context of the VET Review, qualifications levels and core skills levels are related to the SVQ levels. They are both embedded within other units and covered by discrete units. As they are not necessarily assessed separately the obtaining of other awards is usually taken as a proxy measure of skill.

In the National Qualifications, as with SVQs, core skills are both embedded in programmes and covered by separate units. Core skills are defined at 4 levels bearing the same name as the qualification, namely Access, Intermediate 1, Intermediate 2 and Higher. The core skills level is not always the same as the qualification, for example an Intermediate 2 award may have certain skills specified at Intermediate 1. Advanced Higher Awards are attributed with 'Higher' level skills. The Scottish Executive is currently analysing examination results with a view to obtaining a clearer analysis of core skills achievements.

Note: National Qualifications have replaced the former National Certificate Modules and are replacing the Scottish Certificate in Education (SCE) qualifications of Highers and Sixth Year Studies, but not Standard Grades.

SCOTTISH SCHOOL LEAVERS AND THEIR QUALIFICATIONS: 2000-2001
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00175-00.asp

In terms of the Review of Vocational Education and Training SVQ level 2/SCQF level 5 qualifications, with achievement in associated core skills, were considered essential for social inclusion, employment and productivity. There is a target that 80% of people age 25 should have attained level 3 or SCQF 6/7 by 2007.

School qualifications

• 5.7% of young people from publicly funded schools left with qualifications at SCQF level 3 or below.
• 32% of young people from publicly funded schools left school with qualifications below SCQF level 5, that is, without the equivalent of a vocational qualification level 2. Some of these would continue with further education and training either in college or work-based training. However, as yet examination results cannot be linked to leaver destinations to show the progression routes of these young people.
• 68% of young people, therefore, leave school with at least SCQF level 5 equating to vocational qualification level 2.
• 25% have SCQF level 5 qualifications, equating to vocational qualification level 2.
• 43% have SCQF level 6 or 7 qualifications, equating to vocational qualification level 3.

Given the varying relationship between core skills and other awards, these figures must be used with caution as an estimate of core skill achievement.

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