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Indicators of progress: Definitions, data, baseline and trends information
FAMILIES AND WORKING PEOPLE
Milestone 13: Reducing the proportion of unemployed working age people
Indicator
This milestone is directly measured by information taken from the spring quarter of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) using the International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition of unemployment. The indicator is defined as the proportion of economically active working age people in Scotland who are without a job, are available to start in the next two weeks and who have been seeking a job in the last 4 weeks, or who are waiting to start a job already obtained in the next 2 weeks.
Availability of data
Information at a Scottish level is available from 1984. Data are also provided disaggregated by gender and disability. Rural and urban analysis is also available.
Unemployed working age people
Chart 13a shows that since the mid 1980s, there has been a steady decrease in the percentage of economically active people who are unemployed. The figure for 2002 now stands at 6.8 percent, a slight increase on that for 2001.
The estimate for 2002 is a decrease of around 2 percentage points from the baseline figure for 1997.
Chart 13a : Percentage of unemployed working age people
Source: Labour Force Survey: Office for National Statistics
Gender analysis
Chart 13a also shows the proportion of unemployed working age people by gender. The general pattern in unemployment is very similar for women and men - with the exception of the early to mid 1990s.
In spring 2002, nearly 6 percent of economically active women were unemployed. This compares with nearly 7 percent in 1997 (baseline), and over 14 percent in 1984. The picture is similar for men, with just under 8 percent of men being unemployed in Spring 2002. This compares with nearly 10 percent in 1997 and just over 16 percent in 1984. Between 1997 and 2002, the percentage point decrease in unemployment rates for working age men has been greater for men than women, but the overall pattern for both men and women is the same.
Disability analysis
The Labour Force Survey collects information based on a question about whether an individual has any health problems or disabilities that are expected to last for more than 12 months. This is a broad measure of disability and ill health.
Looking at the proportion of unemployed working age people, since 1998 the figures have consistently shown that around 1 in 5 unemployed working age people had a disability as defined by the LFS. This should be seen in light of the fact that around 1 in 5 of all working age people surveyed in the LFS had a disability. However, only around 37% of disabled people of working age are in employment compared to around 73% of all working age people.
In 2002 just under 13% of economically active disabled people are classified as ILO unemployed.
Rural and Urban analysis
Information taken from the Spring quarters of the 1999 - 2002 LFS shows that, in rural Scotland the proportion of working age economically active people who are without a job is lower than in urban Scotland. Over the period 1999 - 2002, the gap in the proportion of those without a job in urban and rural locations has increased. In 1999 the ILO unemployment rate in urban Local Authorities was 7.6 percent and in 2002 this is unchanged. The equivalent rates for rural Local Authorities are 7.5 percent in 1999 and 5.0 percent in 2002.
Long and short term unemployment
When looking at the duration of unemployment over the period 1994 - 2002, the LFS Spring quarter data shows the proportion of unemployed people who are without a job for one year or longer has been falling from around 41 percent in 1994 to just over 26 percent in 2002.
Background data
The following data comes from the LFS and is the information used in Chart 13a.
Table 13b : Percentage of working age people who are unemployed
Year | Percentage of working age people who are unemployed | Percentage of working age women who are unemployed | Percentage of working age men who are unemployed |
1984 | 15.4 | 14.4 | 16.1 |
1985 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 14.7 |
1986 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 14.7 |
1987 | 14.9 | 13.7 | 15.8 |
1988 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 12.8 |
1989 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 10.3 |
1990 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 9.7 |
1991 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 10.1 |
1992 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 11.0 |
1993 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 12.2 |
1994 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 11.4 |
1995 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 9.8 |
1996 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 10.7 |
1997 Baseline | 8.5 | 6.9 | 9.8 |
1998 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 8.7 |
1999 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 9.0 |
2000 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 9.1 |
2001 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 7.1 |
2002 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 7.8 |
Source : Labour Force Survey : Office for National Statistics
Notes : Figures from spring each year
When interpreting these figures it is important to note that they are subject to sampling errors. The conclusion that can be drawn from the data is that since 1984 the proportion of economically active people in Scotland who were ILO unemployed has more than halved for both men and women.
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