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Risk Assessment and Management of Serious Violent and Sexual Offenders: A review of current issues
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report reviews the literature relating to the assessment and management of sex offenders and serious violent offenders, and therefore requiring special measures. It is aimed at those in the criminal justice, social work and other agencies who play an active part in risk assessment and risk management. The report covers four broad areas:
- the background policy, legislative proposals and provisions covering sexual and violent offenders;
- risk assessment methods;
- the current tools available in this area for these offender groups; and
- risk management.
The review is complimented by other studies, in particular an audit of risk assessment tools (McIvor, Kemshall and Levy forthcoming), a review of the literature and statistics on recidivism rates amongst serious sexual and violent offenders in Scotland (Loucks forthcoming).
LEGISLATIVE PROVISIONS
Recent policy and legislative provisions have emphasised public protection and outlined special measures for those identified as high-risk. In the Scottish context the MacLean Committee report (2000) and the recent proposals for an Order for Lifelong Restriction (OLR) in the Criminal Justice (Scotland) Bill (introduced March 26 th 2002) have been the most significant, supported by particular work on sex offenders (Cosgrove 2001) and mentally disordered offenders (Millan Committee, 2001) and the Mental Health (Public Safety and Appeals) Act 1999. These developments place particular duties and obligations on criminal justice, social work and health staff in respect of risk assessment and risk management of high-risk offenders.
RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS
In order to assess and manage risk effectively, reliable methods for risk assessment are necessary. There are two basic approaches: the clinical and the actuarial. Actuarial methods utilise statistical techniques to generate reliable risk predictors and have a greater track record of accuracy. However, they can be flawed by the 'statistical fallacy' and the low incidence of risky behaviours in the population as a whole. Although the clinical method is considered less reliable than the actuarial method, it can provide important information on individual risky behaviours, environmental stressors, and in establishing treatability and management plans. Recent literature has begun to confirm the significant role structured clinical judgement, particularly in the form of structured behavioural rating scales, can have as part of actuarially based tools.
The combined use of clinical and actuarial methods in an holistic approach to risk assessment is now advocated as a technique most likely to enhance both the predictive accuracy and usefulness of risk assessments of sexual and dangerous offenders.
RISK ASSESSMENT TOOLS
The report presents criteria for a 'defensible decision', and reviews current assessment tools for both sex offenders and violent offenders. The review concludes that the two current methods for sex offence recidivism prediction, the 'Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offence Recidivism' (RRASOR) and the 'Structured Anchored Clinical Judgement' (SACJ) both have predictive accuracy, and their combination into the STATIC 99 has led to a modest improvement in their predictive accuracy. More recently MATRIX 2000 has been introduced and retrospectively validated and adopted for use particularly by police and probation services in England and Wales. None of these tools predict seriousness or likely harm, and they are not advocated as stand-alone tools. It is recommended that further attention be given to assessing impact, imminence, and progression from one risk category to another.
The various tools for assessing violent offenders are also reviewed. Because violent offenders are not a homogenous group, tools have been developed for different offenders, in a range of settings and for differing offences. This makes comparability difficult, and inhibits transferability of assessment tools across offender populations. Those tools which are likely to be of most use to personnel engaged in high-risk work in the Scottish context have been considered. Of these, the Violence Risk Assessment Guide (VRAG) is the most accurate and the most widely used. The structured clinical assessment tool HCR-20 provides additional value in terms of identifying those dynamic factors requiring case intervention and treatment. Recent developments in assessment which combine multi-factorial analyses and classification trees are also reviewed, although presently they have not been fully evaluated.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Risk management is an area in which the activities of criminal justice agencies and other relevant agencies such health will be harshly measured in the light of serious incidents and harm to public and victims. The report reviews current literature on effective interventions for sexual and violent offenders. Whilst early evaluations of treatment effectiveness with sex offenders was pessimistic, evaluations of treatment programmes throughout the 1990s have been more positive. These evaluations suggest that cognitive-behavioural methods are the most promising, although some offenders such as those engaged in violent penetrative sex offending are less amenable to treatment. Programme integrity and the accurate targeting of high-risk offenders are also seen as key features of effective treatment. Motivation to change on the part of the offender and timing of treatment are also crucial to success.
There have been very few systematic evaluations of violent offender treatment programmes. Assessing the impact and effectiveness of such programmes is further hindered by the varied nature of violent offences and violent offenders entering specific programmes. The Vermont programme recognises that the promotion of an offender's internal controls needs to be balanced with the implementation of external controls. Key features of the system are mechanisms for early response to signs of relapse (such as failure to attend appointments) and systematic monitoring of progress. Community risk management may be enhanced by intensive support mechanisms such as 'Circles of Support' although this initiative is still subject to evaluation in the UK. Treatment interventions should be integrated into broader risk management strategies to ensure monitoring, surveillance, and appropriate action to enforce conditions and to sanction inappropriate behaviours.
In a climate of increased accountability and public scrutiny it is essential that criminal justice, social work and health personnel can fulfil their duties in this sensitive area. This report reviews the most pertinent literature and its relevance to the roles and responsibilities of staff engaged in the risk assessment and management of serious sexual and violent offenders.
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