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The Scottish Fuel Poverty Statement
7 Moving forward - our milestones for change
7.1 Our overall objective in relation to fuel poverty is clear. We are committed to ensuring, so far as reasonably practicable, that people are not living in fuel poverty in Scotland by November 2016.
7.2 However it is important that we develop milestones on the way to this overall objective, so that can check our progress and make sure that our strategies are having an impact. The task of setting milestones is complicated by the fact that we do not have adequate information about the numbers of people in fuel poverty in Scotland on a regular basis. At the moment, we are dependent on information from the 1996 Scottish House Condition Survey, although the steps we have outlined in Chapter 6 should begin to help us to address this information deficit in future.
7.3 Because of the lack of data, we believe that it is sensible to set some initial milestones, but to review our approach once information from the 2002 Scottish House Condition Survey becomes available in 2003. This will enable us to take account of changes in the numbers of people in fuel poverty that have resulted from the programmes that have been in place since 1996. Regardless of any changes in the milestones, our overall target ensuring, so far as reasonably practicable, that people are not living in fuel poverty in Scotland by November 2016, would remain the same.
7.4 This approach would mean that we would:
- Review our milestones in 2003 once data from the 2002 Scottish House Condition Survey becomes available;
- Begin work on the next fuel poverty statement in 2004 once the work set out in this Statement has begun to have an impact;
- Publish our next Fuel Poverty Statement in 2005.
7.5 We believe that the most significant impact on the numbers of households in fuel poverty is likely to be seen in the earlier years of the overall 15 year target period. The rate of reduction is likely to slow down in later years as there is likely to be a group of householders who are particularly difficult to reach. This would suggest front-loading the target reductions in the numbers of householders in fuel poverty.
7.6 The majority of members of the Fuel Poverty Advisory Group were of a view that the reduction between 2002 and 2007 would need to be between 30% and 40% of the total number of households in fuel poverty in 2002, but agreed that it is difficult to set a precise target without more information.
7.7 To take account of the need to make quick progress in the next few years we have decided to set a target for a shorter period of time, 2002 to 2006 and to set the target above the mid-point of the range considered, at 30%.
Eradicating Fuel Poverty in Scotland - our milestones and target dates
Overall objective:
- To ensure, so far as reasonably practicable, that people are not living in fuel poverty in Scotland by November 2016.
Outcome milestones:
(Both milestones to be reviewed in 2003 on the basis of data from the 2002 Scottish House Condition Survey, and years to be reviewed if the SHCS cycle changes):
- By 2006 - to have achieved a 30% reduction in the total numbers of people in fuel poverty in Scotland as shown in the 2002 Scottish House Condition Survey.
- By 2010 - to have achieved a further reduction in the total numbers of people in fuel poverty in Scotland between 2006 and 2010 - target to be quantified once 2002 SHCS data becomes available.
Process milestones:
- By April 2004 - through the Scottish Executive's Central Heating Programme, all council houses in Scotland outside Glasgow 8 will have central heating by 2004;
- During 2004 - through the Scottish Executive's Central Heating Programme, all current Housing Association tenants to have central heating;
- By March 2006 - through the Scottish Executive's Central Heating Programme, all private sector elderly households to have central heating.
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