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Key 2001 Road Accident Statistics
5. Progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2010 ( Tables 3-5)
5.1 Killed or seriously injured casualties
There were 3,752 people killed or seriously injured in 2001, 22% (1,086) below the 1994-98 average of 4,838. As noted in paragraph 1.2, the relevant "indicative line" figure for 2001 is 16.7% below the 1994-98 baseline average. Therefore, the reduction so far has been greater than would be needed to achieve the 2010 target fall of 40% by means of a constant annual percentage reduction, so the figure for 2001 is below the relevant indicative line. Table 3 shows that this is also the case for most modes of transport: the percentage fall from the 1994-98 average number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties is more than 16.7% for most modes of transport, and so their figures would be below their indicative lines.
About half of all the 3,752 KSI casualties in 2001 were car users. The total of 1,949 car KSI casualties in 2001 was 22% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 2,501, and therefore better than the indicative line reduction. There were 917 pedestrian KSI casualties in 2001, 33% fewer than the annual average of 1,376 for the period 1994-98. However, the number of motorcycle KSI casualties in 2001 was 452, an increase of 27% (97) from the 1994-98 average: this was the only category of road user for which the figure in 2001 was above the indicative line. There were 171 pedal cycle KSI casualties, 31% below the 1994-98 average. The numbers of KSI casualties were smaller for each of the remaining categories of road user (bus/coach: 62; goods vehicle: 129; and others: 72).
5.2 Child killed or seriously injured casualties
543 children were killed or seriously injured in 2001, 36% (299) below the 1994-98 average of 842. The indicative line figure for 2001 is 21.9% below the 1994-98 average. Therefore, the figure for 2001 represents rapid progress towards the 2010 target of a 50% reduction. Table 4 shows that, in 2001, the figures for all the main categories of child road user were below the indicative line.
About two-thirds of the 543 child killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties in 2001 were pedestrians. The number of child pedestrian KSI casualties in 2001 was 353, 209 (37%) below the 1994-98 average of 562, and therefore better than the indicative line reduction. There were 109 child car KSI casualties in 2001, a fall of 36 (25%) from the 1994-98 average of 145. Child pedal cycle KSI casualties in 2001 were also below the indicative line: there were 56, a reduction of 44% from the 1994-98 average of 100. As there are few child KSI casualties for other modes of transport, small fluctuations in their numbers can cause apparently large percentage changes from the 1994-98 baseline average levels - so percentage changes for them are not shown in Table 4.
5.3 Slightly injured casualties, and the slight casualty rate per 100 million vehicle kilometres
Because of the limited availability of detailed reliable road traffic estimates for Scotland, Table 5 shows the numbers of slight casualties (rather than slight casualty rates) for various types of road user. The table also shows the overall total volume of traffic and the overall slight casualty rate, both of which are only available on an annual basis with effect from 1998.
At the time of writing, 2000 is the latest year for which there is an estimate of the total volume of traffic for Scotland as a whole. The slight casualty rate of 38.4 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2000 was 7% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 41.3. As this is below the relevant indicative line's fall of 3.0% by the year 2000, there has been good progress towards the 2010 target of a 10% reduction. By 2001, the indicative line has a reduction of 3.7% in the slight casualty rate. The total number of slight casualties fell by more than this, as did the figures for most of the road user categories.
Almost two-thirds of slight casualties in 2001 were car users. The total number of car user slight casualties in 2001 was 10,330, 5% below the 1994-98 average of 10,860, and therefore better than the slight casualty rate's indicative line fall of 3.7%. There were 2,486 pedestrian slight casualties, 17% less than the 1994-98 average of 3,009, a reduction much better than that of the indicative line for the slight casualty rate. Bus and coach user slight casualties totalled 761 in 2000, 17% fewer than the 1994-98 average, and the number of pedal cyclist slight casualties (746) was 28% below the baseline average. However, there were rises in motorcyclist slight casualties (721 in 2001, 24% above the 1994-98 average) and in goods vehicle user slight casualties (595: 2% more than the baseline average).
6. Casualties by Type of Road ( Table 6)
6.1 In 2001, "non built-up" roads ( see the definition in section 9.3) accounted for about two-fifths of the total number of casualties (41%: 8,205 out of 19,889). However, presumably because average speeds are higher on non built-up roads than elsewhere, they accounted for nearly three-quarters of fatal injuries (73%: 252 out of 347) and for over half of the total number of fatal and serious injuries combined (53%: 1,991 out of 3,752).
6.2 Compared with the 1994-98 average, the fall in the total number of casualties has been much greater for "built-up" roads (13%) than for non built-up roads (7%). The difference between the two types of road is greater when one compares the falls from the 1994-98 averages for the numbers killed (down by 17% for built-up roads compared with 4% for non built-up) and for the numbers fatally or seriously injured (falls of 29% for built up roads and 16% for non-built up roads).
7. Casualties by Mode of Transport ( Table 6)
7.1 Car users
A total of 12,279 car users were injured in road accidents, representing just over three-fifths of all casualties (62%: 12,279 out of 19,889). Of these people, a total of 1,949 were either fatally or seriously injured, 194 of whom died. Non built-up roads accounted for a little over half of all car user casualties (53%: 6,554 out of 12,279). Presumably because average speeds are higher on non built-up roads, they accounted for much higher percentages of the total numbers of car users who were fatally injured (84%: 162 out of 194) or were fatally or seriously injured (72%: 1,410 out of 1,949).
The number of car user fatalities in 2001 was 7% higher than in 2000, but was 7% below the 1994-98 average level. The number who were fatally or seriously injured fell by 2% from 2000, and the total number of casualties (of all severities) was 3% less than in the previous year. The total number of car user casualties in 2001 was 8% below the 1994-98 average.
7.2 Pedestrians
There were 3,403 pedestrian casualties in 2001: over a sixth of all casualties (17%: 3,403 out of 19,889). Of these, 917 were fatally or seriously injured (75 died). Presumably because of the greater vulnerability of pedestrians, 27% of pedestrian casualties were fatally or seriously injured (917 out of 3,403) compared with 16% of all car users (1,949 out of 12,279). About 95% of pedestrian casualties occurred on built-up roads (3,244 out of 3,403). Perhaps because of higher average speeds on non built-up roads, 52% of the pedestrian casualties on such roads were serious injuries or fatalities (83 out of 159) compared with 26% on built-up roads (834 out of 3,244).
7.3 Other casualties
Together, all other modes of transport accounted for a fifth (21%) of casualties in 2001 (4,207 out of 19,889) and for a similar proportion of the total number of fatal and serious injuries (24%: 886 out of 3,752). There were 917 pedal cyclist casualties in 2001, 4% more than in 2000, including 171 (19%) fatal or serious injuries (10 died). In 2001 there were 1,173 motor cycle casualties, 4% more than 2000, of whom 452 (39%) suffered fatal or serious injuries (49 died). A total of 823 bus and coach users were injured, of whom 62 suffered serious injuries (none were killed) - these low proportions presumably being due to the greater protection of their passengers by buses and coaches. The number of bus and coach user casualties fell by 12% in 2001.
8. Child Casualties ( Table 7)
8.1 Child casualties
There were 2,955 child casualties in 2001, representing under a sixth of the total number of casualties of all ages (15%: 2,955 out of 19,889). Of the child casualties, 543 were fatalities or serious injuries, of whom 20 died. This was one death fewer than in 2000; the total number of child casualties fell by 44 (1%). These numbers were all considerably below the 1994-98 average levels: the number of casualties was 23% lower, and the number of deaths was two-thirds of the 1994-98 average level.
8.2 Child pedestrians
There were 1,485 child pedestrian casualties in 2001. They accounted for 44% of all pedestrian casualties of all ages (1,485 out of 3,403). Of the child pedestrian casualties, 353 were fatalities or serious injuries (14 died). The number of fatalities was one more than in 2000, but the total number of fatal and serious injuries was 7% less than in 2000. The figures were considerably below the corresponding 1994-98 averages: the number of fatal and serious child pedestrian casualties and the overall number of child pedestrian casualties were, respectively, 37% and 23% below the 1994-98 average level.
8.3 Children in cars
In 2001, there were 948 child casualties in cars, 8% of the total number of car user casualties of all ages (948 out of 12,279). Of the child casualties in cars, 109 were fatalities or serious injuries (2 died). While the total number of child car user fatalities and serious injuries was 25% below the 1994-98 average, the total number of child car user casualties (of all severities) was only 13% lower than the 1994-98 average.
8.4 Other child casualties
In 2001, there were 309 child pedal cycle casualties (34% of the total of 917 pedal cycle casualties of all ages), 135 child bus and coach user casualties (16% of the total of 823 of all ages) and 78 other child casualties. The child pedal cycle casualties included 56 fatalities and serious injuries, of whom 4 died. The total number of child pedal cycle casualties in 2001 was 42% below the 1994-98 average, and the total number of child bus and coach user casualties was 25% below the 1994-98 average.
9. Sources and definitions
9.1 The sources of the data
The statistics in this bulletin were compiled from returns made by police forces, which cover all accidents in which a vehicle is involved that occur on roads (including footways) and result in personal injury, if they become known to the police. The vehicle need not be moving, and need not be in collision - for example, the returns include accidents involving people alighting from buses. "Damage only" accidents are not included in this definition.
9.2 The definition of "severity"
For the purposes of the Road Accidents statistical returns:
a fatal injury is one which causes death less than 30 days after the accident;
a fatal accident is an accident in which at least one person is fatally injured;
a serious injury is one which does not cause death less than 30 days after the accident, and which is in one (or more) of the following categories:
(a) an injury for which a person is detained in hospital as an in-patient
or (b) any of the following injuries (whether or not the person is detained in hospital): fractures, concussion, internal injuries, crushings, severe cuts and lacerations, severe general shock requiring treatment
or (c) any injury causing death 30 or more days after the accident;
a serious accident is one in which at least one person is seriously injured, but no-one suffers a fatal injury;
a "slight" injury is any injury which is neither "fatal" nor "serious" - for example, a sprain, bruise or cut which is not judged to be severe, or slight shock requiring roadside attention;
a "slight" accident is one in which at least one person suffers "slight" injuries, but no-one is seriously injured, or fatally injured;
Over the years, improvements in vehicle design, and the provision and use of additional safety features, together with changes in the law (eg on the fitting and wearing of seatbelts), will have all helped to reduce the severity of the injuries suffered in some accidents. Road safety measures should also have reduced the levels of injuries sustained - for example, if traffic calming schemes reduce average speeds and hence reduce the speeds at which collisions occur. In addition, the distinction between "serious" and "slight" injuries could be affected by factors such as changes in hospitals' admission policies. For example, all else being equal, the number of "serious injury" cases would rise, and the number of "slight injury" cases would fall, if it became standard procedure for a hospital to keep in overnight, for precautionary reasons, casualties with a particular type of injury (section 2.3 of the 1995 bulletin explained that part of the increase in "serious injury" cases in 1994 was due to hospitals admitting more child casualties for overnight observation). There could also be changes in hospitals' procedures that would reduce the numbers of "serious injury" cases. In addition, there is anecdotal evidence that changes in procedures for assigning severity codes may affect the categorisation of injuries. For example, different severity codes might be assigned by a police officer who was at the scene of an accident and by a clerk who bases the code on a police officer's written description of the accident. Therefore, it is possible that some of the changes shown in the figures for "serious injuries" and "slight injuries" may be affected by changes in administrative practices, which may have altered the proportion of accidents which is categorised as "serious".
9.3 Some other definitions
Built-up roads: accidents which occur on "built-up" roads are those which occur on roads which have speed limits of up to 40 miles per hour ( ignoring temporary speed limits on roads for which the normal speed limit is over 40mph). Therefore, an accident on a motorway in an urban area would not be counted as occurring on a "built-up" road, because the speed limit on the motorway is 70mph. An accident on a stretch of motorway with a temporary speed limit of 30mph would not be counted as occurring on a "built-up" road, because the normal speed limit is 70mph.
Children: people under 16 years old.
Pedestrians: includes people riding toy cycles on the footway; people pushing or pulling bicycles or other vehicles; people leading or herding animals; occupants of prams or wheelchairs; people who alight safely from vehicles and are subsequently injured.
9.4 The targets for reducing road accident casualties by the year 2010
In March 2000, the UK Government, the Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new national road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. These new targets were introduced to focus on achieving a further substantial improvement in road safety over the next ten years, with particular emphasis on child casualties. The new targets, which are given in the document "Tomorrow's roads - safer for everyone", are based on the annual average casualty levels over the period 1994 to 1998. By 2010 it is hoped that there will be, compared with the average for 1994-98:
- a 40% reduction in the number of people killed or seriously injured in road accidents.
- a 50% reduction in the number of children killed or seriously injured; and
- a 10% reduction in the slight casualty rate, expressed as the number of people slightly injured per 100 million vehicle kilometres.
9.5 The calculation of the "indicative lines" shown in the graphs
One way of assessing progress towards these targets is to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 1996 and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, to the target for 2010. This is the approach adopted by the GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. The indicative line starts at the baseline figure in 1996 because that is the middle year of the 1994-98 "baseline" period. Other approaches could have been used: there are many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for 2010 - for example, the indicative lines could have started at the actual levels for the year 2000 (as that was the year in which the targets were adopted), and fallen in straight lines to the targets for 2010.
As the method adopted to produce the indicative lines involves a constant percentage reduction in each year, the lines are not straight. This is due to the "compounding over the years" effect of constant annual percentage reductions: each year's fall in an indicative line's figure is calculated by applying a constant percentage reduction to the line's number of casualties in the previous year (which reduces each year, so the falls between one year and the next get smaller and smaller). To two decimal places, the falls are: 3.58% p.a. for killed or seriously injured casualties; 4.83% p.a. for child killed or seriously injured casualties; and 0.75% p.a. for the slight casualty rate.
More statistics relating to the new targets appear in "Road Accidents Scotland". A table on page 44 of "Road Accidents Scotland 2000" shows the percentages of the baseline averages in each year which are represented by each of the indicative lines.
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