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THE 2000 SCOTTISH CRIME SURVEY: OVERVIEW REPORT

Chapter 4 Comparison with Police Recorded Crime Statistics

This section examines how the number of crimes reported to the SCS compares with those recorded by the police in Scotland. The police recorded crime statistics do not provide a reliable indication of trends in crime levels for a number of reasons, the most important being that not all crimes are reported to or detected by the police and that reporting and detection rates vary independently of crime levels. Crime surveys have become a widely accepted means of providing a more complete measure of victimisation (by crimes of assault or theft or damage to private property). However, because the police statistics are still the most regularly updated and widely used measure of trends in crime, it is important to consider how these compare with the SCS estimates. Through looking at how the two sets of figures change over time, we can get an indication of whether the police statistics are demonstrating a real change in crime levels, or whether they are changing as a result of changed reporting rates or police recording practices.

Only certain categories of SCS crime are directly comparable with police recorded crime statistics. These are vandalism, housebreaking, theft of a motor vehicle, theft of a bicycle, robbery and assault. These categories are collectively referred to as the 'comparable sub-set' of crimes. This sub-set accounts for 65% of all crimes reported in the survey. This is an increase from 54% in 1995, largely reflecting a sharp drop in some types of crime outside the comparable sub-set, in particular, other household theft and theft from motor vehicles.

Because not all incidents of victimisation are reported to the police and, of those that are, not all are subsequently recorded by them, there is a sizeable gap between SCS estimates of crime and the number of police recorded crimes. When comparable crimes recorded by the SCS were grossed up, an estimated 548,900 such crimes were committed during 1999. Police recorded crime statistics show a comparable figure of 180,300. This means that the number of comparable crimes recorded by the police in 1999 was just 33% of the number estimated by the SCS. This proportion is slightly lower than that recorded in 1995 (37%) and 1992 (39%).

Figure 4.1 shows, for comparable crimes, the number estimated by the SCS and the number recorded by the police ( see also Appendix A4.1).

Figure 4.1 Levels of recorded and unrecorded crime

Notes
1 Source 2000 SCS (all Scotland weighted data), n=5059; police recorded crime statistics

Levels of Reporting to the Police

One of the reasons for discrepancies between police recorded crime statistics and SCS estimates of crime levels is that only some crimes are reported to the police. The survey asks, for each incident, whether or the police came to know about the matter. This information helps us to establish the extent to which variations in trend data between the SCS rates and the police statistics can be attributed to variations in reporting rates. However it should be noted that it is only possible to establish whether or not the police came to know about the incident. The respondent would be unlikely to know whether the police subsequently recorded the incident.

The crime surveys show a sizeable increase in reporting to the police between 1981 and 1992. This tailed off in 1995, but the 2000 SCS shows that in 1999 there was an increase beyond the level seen in 1992. In comparison, BCS results show that levels of reporting to the police in England and Wales increased steadily up to 1991 and then tailed off and has continued to decline since 1995 (Table 4.1). Over the period of the surveys, reporting in Scotland has been consistently higher than in England and Wales.

The results below are based on Central and Southern Scotland only to show trends back to 1981. Data on the level of reporting for the whole of Scotland (since 1992) and more details on rates of reporting for various types of crime can be found in Appendix A4.2. The percentage of crimes reported in the whole of Scotland in 1999 was 53%.

Table 4.1 Trends in Reporting Crime to the Police 1981-1999

Note
1 Source BCS (Scotland) 1982, 1988; SCS (central and southern Scotland) 1993, 1996, 2000; BCS (England and Wales) 1982, 1984, 1988, 1992,1994,1996, 1998, 2000.

Trends in crimes experienced, reported and recorded: 1995 and 1999 (All Scotland)

Table 4.2 shows trends in the comparable sub-set of crimes across the whole of Scotland from 1995 to 1999. Police statistics on recorded crime fell by 7%, while crime survey estimates rose by 5% between 1995 and 1999. There was an estimated increase of 13% for comparable SCS crimes reported to the police. Further details can be found in Appendix A4.2.

Despite the differences between the police statistics and the SCS total estimates, they nevertheless show similar trends, especially when the impact on SCS violence rates of the new screening question for domestic violence is taken into account ( see Chapter 2). Significant differences between the two sets of figures are found only when reporting levels are taken into account and the reasons for this discrepancy are not clear. The contrast between the police and SCS comparable figures is unusual and could be a reflection of both recording practices and errors potentially inherent in survey estimates.

Table 4.2: Trends in crime 1995-1999

Note
1 Sources: Adjusted police recorded crime statistics for 1999; 1996 and 2000 SCS

Trends in crimes experienced, reported and recorded: 1981 to 1999 (Central and Southern Scotland)

In order to examine trends right back to 1981, the analysis in the remainder of this chapter is based on the reduced study area of Central and Southern Scotland used in the 1982 and 1988 BCS sweeps. Within this reduced area, the number of crimes recorded by the police in the period 1981-1999 rose by 20% and the number of reported crimes measured by the SCS rose by 33%. However, the total number of SCS crimes, whether reported to the police or not, actually fell by 9% (Figure 4.2). Further details can be found in Appendix A4.3.

As Figure 4.2 shows, between 1981 and 1992 police statistics showed a steep rise in the level of crime in Scotland (52%) followed by a drop between 1992 and 1995 (13%). SCS crimes increased by just 4% between 1981 and 1992, then declined, similarly to the police statistics, between 1992 and 1995 (10%). Over the same period, SCS rates of reporting to the police increased substantially before dropping between 1992 and 1995. This suggests that it was largely increased reporting rates which accounted for the steep rise in police recorded crime rates over the period 1981 to 1992, rather than a substantial increase in the level of crime. The similar decline between 1992 and 1995 in SCS crimes and police recorded crime suggests that a real reduction in crime took place over this period.

The police statistics for 1999 for central and southern Scotland only show a drop in the recorded levels of crime since 1995 (8%). There was also a slight decrease in the total number of SCS comparable crimes (3%) (Figure 4.2). However, the number of SCS crimes reported to the police rose by 5% over the period (as reported in Appendix A4.3). As with figures for the whole of Scotland, this discrepancy cannot be accounted for in any definitive way. To some extent, it could be a function of the errors potentially inherent in the survey estimates. Another explanation could be that police recording practices were inconsistent over the comparative period.

Figure 4.2 shows trends for the comparable sub-set of crimes between 1981 and 1999. The figures for 1981 are indexed at 100 to show how the different measures of crime have changed relative to one another.

Figure 4.2 Indexed Trends in Crime 1981 to 1999

Note
1 Source: Police recorded crime statistics; BCS (Scotland) 1982, 1988; SCS 1993, 1996, 2000 (Central and Southern Scotland), weighted data.

Trends in different types of crime

The pattern in trends varied considerably between different types of crime.

Figure 4.3 shows that the number of acquisitive crimes recorded by the police rose considerably between 1981 and 1992, and then dropped between 1992 and 1995. Crime survey estimates of the number of acquisitive crimes show a similar pattern, although with a much sharper rise between 1981 and 1992 and a much sharper fall between 1992 and 1995. The trend in the number of acquisitive crimes reported to the police shows a broadly similar pattern. Despite some irregularities in the trends shown by the different measurements, the same broad tendencies are indicated, ie a rise between 1981 and 1992 followed by a fall.

Figure 4.3 Indexed Trends in Acquisitive Crime 1981-1999

Notes
1 Acquisitive Crime: housebreaking, theft of a motor vehicle and bicycle theft.
2 Source: Police recorded crime statistics; BCS (Scotland) 1982, 1988;SCS 1993, 1996, 2000 (Central and Southern Scotland), weighted data.

Figure 4.4 shows that survey estimates of violent crime (assault and robbery) and the number of these crimes reported to the police rose between 1981 and 1987. They then dropped between 1992 and 1995, while the police statistics continued to rise. Police statistics show a 16% rise in violent incidents between 1995 and 1999 and the SCS estimates also show a rise, although it is slightly smaller (9%).

Figure 4.4 Indexed Trends in Violent Crime 1981-1999

Notes
1 Violence; petty and serious assault and robbery.
2 Source: Police recorded crime statistics; BCS (Scotland) 1982, 1988;SCS 1993, 1996, 2000 (Central and Southern Scotland), weighted data.

Figure 4.5 shows that SCS estimates of vandalism fell between 1981 and 1992, but rose in 1995. In contrast, during this period the police statistics on vandalism showed a considerable increase between 1981 and 1992 and then a decrease between 1992 and 1995. Between 1995 and 1999 both the SCS estimates of vandalism and the police statistics on vandalism show a comparable drop. The most significant feature of the trends in vandalism is the large apparent rise in levels of reporting to the police between 1992 and 1995.

Figure 4.5 Indexed Trends in Vandalism 1981-1999

Notes
1 Vandalism: vehicle and household vandalism.
2 Source: Police recorded crime statistics; BCS (Scotland) 1982, 1988;SCS 1993, 1996, 2000 (Central and Southern Scotland), weighted data.

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