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THE 2000 SCOTTISH CRIME SURVEY: OVERVIEW REPORT
Chapter 3 Trends in SCS Crime
This chapter examines trends in crime levels by comparing the findings from the 2000 SCS with those from previous sweeps. The SCS measures crime in the year preceding the survey, therefore the 2000 survey gives a count of crime in 1999, while the 1996 survey gave a count of crime in 1995. Because the survey is always conducted in the same way, and because the same rules for coding crimes into offence categories have been applied in each survey, the SCS is able to provide an indication of changing crime levels over time.
Trend 1995 to 1999
All Crimes
According to the SCS there was a 13% fall in the total number of crimes between 1995 and 1999 (Table 3.1), from around 969,000 crimes in 1995 to around 843,000 in 1999 (Appendix A2.1). The following sections examine changes in the estimated total numbers for various categories of offence.
Property Crime
Overall there was a drop in the estimated number of property crimes between 1995 and 1999, although there was an increase in theft from the person and a very slight increase in housebreaking. It should be noted that there is a sampling error associated with these figures and therefore not all of the apparent changes reach statistical significance. The changes in the number of attempted thefts of/ from vehicles, thefts from vehicles and other household theft are statistically significant. The others are not. Appendix A2.1 provides further details of the significance of changes between years.
Figure 3.1 Percentage Change in SCS Property Crimes between 1995 and 1999
Note
1 Source 1996 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,045; 2000 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,059)
Violent Crime
SCS estimates show a 33% rise in the number of violent crimes (robbery and assault) (Appendix A2.1). However, the relative rarity of violent crimes means that estimates are subject to a high margin of error and this rise does not reach statistical significance. This does not mean to say that a rise in violent crime has not taken place between 1995 and 1999, but that the current survey design does not allow us to say this with adequate certainty. As Chapter 4 reports, the police recorded crime statistics also indicate that violence increased during the period, so the available evidence does suggest that a rise in violent crime has taken place.
Figure 3.2 Percentage Change in SCS Violent Crimes between 1995 and 1999
Note
1 Source 1996 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,045; 2000 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,059)
Trends in All SCS Crimes 1981 - 1999 (Central and Southern Scotland)
In order to examine trends in crime in Scotland from the first Survey in 1982 to the most recent sweep, we have to limit analysis to Central and Southern Scotland because crime surveys in Scotland prior to 1993 did not include the Highlands and Islands. Figure 3.3 shows trends in the total number of crimes estimated by the SCS in Central and Southern Scotland between 1981 and 1999. There was only a slight drop in crime between 1981 and 1992. However, there was a considerable drop (10%) in the number of incidents between 1992 and 1995 and again between 1995 and 1999 (19%). Overall, crime survey estimates show that there were almost a third (29%) fewer crimes in Central and Southern Scotland in 1999 than in 1981. In terms of the whole of Scotland, for which we have figures from 1992 onwards, crime fell by 8% between 1992 and 1995, and by a further 13% between 1995 and 1999. More detail on these trends can be found in Appendices A2.1 and A3.1.
Figure 3.3 Trend in all SCS Crime 1981-1999 (Central and Southern Scotland)
Note
1 Source BCS (Scotland) 1982 and 1988, SCS 1993, 1996 and 2000 (central and southern Scotland) (all weighted data)
Trends in Property Crime and Violence 1992-1999 (All Scotland)
The following sections examine trends in four main types of crime - housebreaking, vehicle-related theft, vandalism and violence. This analysis is limited to 1992 onwards in order to include data from the whole of Scotland. However, trend data from 1981-1999 (for Central and Southern Scotland only) is presented in Appendices A3.1 and A3.3.
Housebreaking
The estimated number of housebreaking incidents showed a statistically significant drop of 34% between 1992 and 1995. The number of incidents then rose very slightly between 1995 and 1999, but this was not statistically significant. To remove any possible effect of changing population or household structure on levels of crime, it is helpful to look at the incidence rate of housebreaking, that is, the number per 10,000 households ( see Appendix A3.2). The rate of housebreaking in 1999 was virtually identical to that in 1995, at 385 per 10,000 households (386 in 1995), indicating that there has been no real change between surveys.
Figure 3.4 Trend in Housebreaking 1992-1999
Note
1 Source 1993 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,030; 1996 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,045; 2000 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,059)
Not all incidents classified as housebreaking resulted in entry to the home. The proportion of incidents in which the offender actually gained entry to the home was 66% in 1992, but this fell to 62% in 1995 and to 51% in 1999. Thus, although a similar number of housebreaking incidents was reported to the survey in 1995 and 1999, there were fewer cases of actual entry in 1999. The possible reasons for this are examined in more detail in the thematic report on housebreaking (see back page), but it appears likely that improved home security measures over the period may well be a factor.
Figure 3.5 Trends in Attempted and Entry Housebreaking 1992 to 1999
Note
1 Source 1993 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,030; 1996 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,045; 2000 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,059)
Vehicle related theft
There was a slight drop (9%) in vehicle-related theft (theft of vehicle, theft from vehicle and attempted theft) between 1992 and 1995, followed by a large decrease (47%) between 1995 and 1999. The drop since 1995 in the rate of vehicle-related thefts (per 10,000 vehicle owners) is statistically significant ( see Appendix 3.2).
Figure 3.6 Trend in Vehicle-Related Theft 1992-1999
Note
1 Source 1993 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,030; 1996 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,045; 2000 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,059)
The largest proportion of motor vehicle thefts was thefts from vehicles which accounted for 60% of all vehicle thefts in 1999. Thefts of vehicles accounted for 15% of vehicle thefts, while the remaining 25% were attempted thefts of or from vehicles.
Figure 3.7 Trends in Theft of and From Vehicles and Attempts - 1992 to 1999
Note
1 Source 1993 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,030; 1996 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,045; 2000 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,059)
Figure 3.7 shows that the biggest drops between 1995 and 1999 were in attempted vehicle thefts and thefts from vehicles. The drop in the rates (per 10,000 vehicle owning households) for these types of car crime was statistically significant. However, the drop in theft of vehicles was not ( see Appendix 3.2).
Vandalism
The SCS collects details of vandalism to vehicles and other private property, including the home. SCS estimates show little change in the number of incidents of motor vehicle vandalism between 1992 and 1999. However, numbers of incidents of vandalism to other types of property have fluctuated somewhat. SCS estimates show a 25% rise in other vandalism between 1992 and 1995, but a 19% drop between 1995 and 1999.
Figure 3.8 Trends in Vandalism 1992 to 1999
Note
1 Source 1993 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,030; 1996 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,045; 2000 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,059)
Violent Crime
Violent crime (assault and robbery) changed little between 1992 and 1995. However, there were an estimated 52,000 more violent crimes in 1999 than in 1995 - an increase of 33%. Due to the large margin of error associated with violent crime (as it is rarer than many property offences) the increase in the violent crime rate does not reach statistical significance ( see Appendix 3.2). However, as Chapter 4 explains, there was also a marked increase in police recorded violent crimes over the period, so the available evidence suggests that a real increase took place.
Part of the increase in violent crime measured by the SCS was attributable to the addition of a new 'screener question' on domestic violence in the 2000 survey which encouraged people to report such incidents to the survey and increased the estimates of violent crime by approximately 10% 4. Overall, it appears that the increase in violent crimes picked up by the survey is largely due to a higher level of repeat victimisation in the sample, as the number of people affected by such crimes has changed very little. As in 1995, only 3% of people in Scotland had been the victim of a violent crime. Further detail on the percentage of the population affected by violent crime is provided in Chapter 6.
Figure 3.9 Trend in Violence 1992 to 1999
Note
1 Source 1993 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,030; 1996 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,045; 2000 SCS (all Scotland, weighted data), n=5,059)
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