The Scottish Government

Environment Group Research Programme Research Findings No. 8

Climate Change: North Atlantic Comparisons

Dr Andy Kerr and Dr Simon Allen
University of Edinburgh

Main Findings

• Comparison with the study countries suggests that improving energy and thermal efficiency in domestic and commercial buildings is the most important climate-related action available to the Scottish Executive. There are striking differences between the thermal efficiency of buildings in Ireland and the UK with those in the Nordic Countries. Many Nordic Countries, notably Denmark, have followed aggressive policies to improve energy efficiency.

• The Irish Energy Centre provides a good model on which to base a one-stop shop for energy and energy efficiency information and advice, coupled to local or regional energy companies dedicated to improving energy efficiency.

• Problems with high fuel prices in Scotland's rural regions, where local populations are reliant on the car, are common to other study countries such as Sweden, and there would be benefits to exchanging ideas on mitigating the most adverse effects.

• Developments of agricultural policy to encourage biomass production as an energy resource and to reduce nitrous oxide and methane emissions are found in Ireland, Sweden and Denmark, and could helpfully inform Scottish agricultural policy.

• Current ocean climate and fish stocks monitoring activities in Scottish waters should be maintained and strengthened with co-operation from Iceland and, particularly, Norway. The UK and Norway have recently announced an initiative to study the ocean climate and the possibility of rapid climate change in the oceans surrounding Scotland and Norway.

• The Nordic Council of Ministers is planning a trial of Kyoto flexible mechanisms, such as Joint Implementation (JI) and an emissions trading scheme, with Baltic and East European countries and might encourage the participation of neighbouring countries such as the UK.

The Study in Context

Scotland, Northern Ireland, Ireland and the Nordic Countries, which comprise the northern and north-western flank of Europe, have historical links stretching back to the Viking era from 800 AD. The Norse settled in Shetland, Orkney, Caithness and the Hebridean Islands of Scotland, while Norse traders founded many of the major Irish towns, such as Dublin, Cork and Limerick. Norse settlers from Scandinavia, bringing Celtic people from the British Isles, migrated to Iceland in the ninth century.

Today the study countries have many similarities in their economic, social and environmental profiles. They also share a common political driver with the increasing regionalisation within Europe. At a time when the study countries are developing their National Climate Programmes, it is appropriate to explore linkages between the countries to inform the development of local, national and regional climate policies in Scotland and the UK.

Climate Impacts and Adaptation

Regional climate scenarios suggest that the study region faces increasing and more changeable patterns of precipitation in conjunction with rising temperatures. The west of the study area is likely to see the wettest climate while models suggest it will be drier in the more sheltered eastern parts of Sweden and Finland. Wide seasonal and geographical differences in the changing temperatures are expected, particularly where associated with fluctuations in ocean currents.

Model results suggest a divergence in climate between the increasingly wet northwestern fringe of Europe and the increasingly continental climate of Southeast England and northern mainland Europe. The similar climatic context of the study countries suggests a need to co-ordinate the further development of climate change indicators across the study countries to observe regional trends.

Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Climate Change Programmes to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, which are the prime human influence on the global climate, have been or are being developed by all the study countries. Greenhouse gas emissions from all the study countries apart from the United Kingdom have risen since 1990. Of these countries, only the UK, Iceland and Ireland are currently on course to meet the international obligations set by either the Kyoto Protocol or the European Union burden-sharing agreement.

There is scope for collaboration on climate-related matters of regional interest, particularly in the energy and business sectors. A recommendation of this study is that the Scottish Executive should contribute to UK involvement and collaboration with the Nordic Council of Ministers on matters of:

• Energy market liberalisation;

• The effect on emissions of energy and carbon taxation;

• The development of emission trading schemes.

The Energy Sector

The key regional energy issues of relevance to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions include:

• The liberalisation and interconnectivity of the energy market between the Nordic Countries and between the UK and Ireland;

• The extensive use of energy and carbon taxes in the study countries to influence behaviour;

• The wide variety of energy resources in the study countries. Iceland produces 100% of its electricity and 98% of its space heating from its renewable resources. Norway produces 70% of its stationary energy requirements from renewable resources; Ireland, Northern Ireland, Denmark and Finland depend heavily on fossil-fuel rich resources; and Scotland and Sweden have many similarities with their use of nuclear, hydropower and fossil fuels.

• The extensive development of combined heat and power (CHP) and district heating schemes in Denmark, Sweden and Finland, to which the UK Government aspires;

• The explicit linkage of energy and environmental policies in Denmark through their Ministry of Energy and Environment.

The Transport Sector

None of the study countries has found a solution to reduce the growing emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, from the transport sector. The key transport issues of relevance to climate policy in the study countries are:

• Road is the main form of transport in the large rural areas and there are few or no alternatives to car use in these areas;

• There are a number of existing or planned urban transit schemes to reduce car use in the larger urban conurbations, such as Dublin, Copenhagen and Stockholm, with which relevant Scottish local authorities could usefully exchange ideas;

• High fuel taxation exists in most of the study countries and increasing the marginal rates of taxation would reduce greenhouse gas emissions but at an insufficient rate to offset the forecast growth in vehicle traffic;

• Better urban planning is seen as crucial to reduce reliance on the car;

• Countries are reliant on European-wide pressure on vehicle manufacturers to improve fuel economy and continue the introduction of alternative fuels.

The Business Sector

Options available to national Governments to influence business behaviour towards mitigating greenhouse gas emissions are financial instruments, regulation, voluntary agreements, and subsidies to support non-market benefits. The key regional climate-related issues in the business sector were:

• The use of financial instruments in the form of energy or carbon taxes by the study countries, some of which are amongst the highest in the world;

• The development of emissions trading schemes within the Nordic Countries and the UK;

• The implementation of the EC IPPC Directive;

• National strategies for waste minimisation, recycling, and landfill with gas recovery.

The Domestic Sector

Comparison with the study countries suggests that improving energy and thermal efficiency in domestic and commercial buildings is the most important climate-related action available to the Scottish Executive. In this area, the Nordic Countries provide a useful benchmark. The climate in their populated southern regions is close to that of Scotland, but the thermal efficiencies of buildings are much higher. Useful approaches include:

• The enforcement of energy audits and ratings of existing households;

• The use of regional and local energy companies dedicated to improving energy efficiency;

• Information awareness on energy and energy efficiency issues in Ireland benefits from the one-stop shop approach adopted by the Irish Energy Centre. A recommendation of this study is that the Scottish Executive could consider a similar one-stop shop approach to energy and energy efficiency information akin to the Irish Energy Centre.

Agricultural, forestry and fishing sector

• None of the study countries have specific policies for mitigating emissions from the agricultural sector, though policies aimed at other objectives, such as nitrate pollution and manure management, have also tended to reduce nitrous oxide and methane emissions;

• While developing national forestry policies to meet the full range of economic, social and environmental objectives, opportunities for enhancing carbon sequestration are being taken. However, there is a lack of fundamental knowledge about the balance of greenhouse gas uptake and emissions from trees and soil, particularly where trees are grown on peaty soils;

• The possible impact of climate change on ocean circulation and fisheries is a major cause for concern, particularly to Iceland and Norway.

About this Study

The study was undertaken between January and May 2000 by Dr Andy Kerr and Dr Simon Allen from The University of Edinburgh. The study was a predominantly desk-based review of national climate policies and climate-related reports from various socio-economic sectors within the study countries. International agencies, particularly the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the European Environment Agency, provide extensive information on policy matters associated with climate change. The study also included short visits to meet key contacts in some of the study countries.