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Scottish Prison Population Projections 2008
21/11/2008
Updated Scottish prison population projections have been released today by Scotland's Chief Statistician. The statistical publication notice Scottish prison population projections: 2008-09 to 2017-2018 includes brief descriptions of recent trends in the Scottish prison population and the methodology used to produce the projections. These projections take into account recent trends in the prison population, including the latest available data for the first eight months of 2008.
The main points are:
- The daily prison population in Scotland is projected to increase from an annual average of 7,700 over 2008-09 to 9,600 by 2017-18.
- The prison population in the first eight months of 2008 has been much higher than anticipated. The recent increase is reflected in the latest set of prison population projections, which project higher increases in the future population than those published in November 2007.
The 2008 projections are the highest projections possible given the current methodology. Whether the high projection is realised in the medium to longer term will very much depend on developments over the next 6-12 months. As a result of the rapid changes over the past few years, the current projection methodology will need to be reviewed and we will be exploring the possibility of alternative approaches during the coming year.