This item was published during the term of a previous administration that ended in April 2007
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Average household to fall below two people
31/05/2006
The average household size in Scotland is likely to drop below two people by 2024 as the population ages and more people choose to live alone or in smaller households, according to the latest Household Projections for Scotland issued by the General Register Office for Scotland.
Between 2004 and 2024, the number of households consisting of just one adult will increase from 770,000 to over a million - making up over 40 per cent of all households in Scotland.
The total number of households is projected to increase by 13 per cent to 2.5 million - an average of 14,800 additional households per year.
Duncan Macniven, Registrar General for Scotland, said:
"Within the next 20 years, the average household will include two people or fewer. This is because average household size has been getting smaller for some time; people are increasingly choosing to live alone.
"Our ageing population also contributes significantly to the vast increase in single person households. The greatest increase is in households headed by people aged 60 or over with the number of households with someone aged 85 or over projected to more than double."
Key Findings:
- Between 2004 and 2024, the number of households in Scotland is projected to increase by 13 per cent to 2.5 million - an average of 14,800 additional households per year
- Over the same period, Scotland's population is projected to increase by just 0.8 per cent. Therefore, most of the projected increase is the result of more people living alone or in smaller households. The average household size is projected to decrease from 2.22 people in 2004 to 1.97 in 2024
- Scotland's population is ageing, with more people in the older age groups and fewer in the younger age groups. This has an impact on household structure, as children tend to live in larger households, and older people in smaller ones
Household type
- There is a large projected increase in households containing just one adult, from 770,000 (34 per cent of all households) in 2004 to over a million (42 per cent) in 2024
- Older women are more likely than men to live alone. But the number of men living alone is projected to increase more rapidly, from 330,000 households in 2004 to 490,000 in 2024, an increase of nearly a half. The number of men living alone who are aged 85 or over is projected to increase from 9,000 to 22,000
- There are also projected increases in other small households. Households containing just two adults are projected to rise from 670,000 to 810,000, though there is a projected decrease of a quarter in the number of middle-aged two adult households. The number of households containing one adult with children is projected to rise from 150,000 to 200,000
- In contrast, the number of larger households is projected to fall, with households containing two or more adults with children decreasing from 460,000 (20 per cent of all households) in 2004 to 320,000 (12 per cent) by 2024. There is also a projected decrease in the number of households containing three or more adults, from 200,000 to 150,000
Age group
- The greatest projected increases are in households headed by people aged 60 or over (an increase of over a third between 2004 and 2024, from 730,000 to 990,000). In contrast, households headed by someone aged under 60 are projected to increase by just two per cent, to around 1.55 million. The number of households headed by someone aged 85 or over is projected to more than double over this period, from 56,000 to 120,000
Local authority figures
- The projections show that almost all local authority areas will have more households over the next 20 years. The largest percentage increase between 2004 and 2024 is in West Lothian (34 per cent). Edinburgh, the Scottish Borders, East Lothian, Aberdeenshire and Fife all have projected increases of between 21 and 23 per cent. Aberdeen City has a projected decrease of 11 per cent over the same period, and Dundee City has a projected decrease of 6 per cent
Background information
Method used: Household projections are produced every two years. These household projections incorporate information from the latest (2004-based) population projections, and information from the last two Censuses is used to project trends in household formation.
Uses: Household projections are mainly used for informing local authority decisions about future housing need and service provision.
Interpreting the projections: It is important to remember that the projections provide an indication of what would happen if past trends continue. They do not take account of policy initiatives, or other factors that may affect future populations. In addition, projections for small groups are likely to be less reliable than those for larger groups.