This item was published during the term of a previous administration that ended in April 2007
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Population projections for council areas
20/12/2005
Figures released on population projections for Scotland's council and NHS board areas show some areas will continue to increase while others parts are set to decline, according to the latest sub-national population projections today.
The report is based on the 2004 mid-year population projections for Scotland, published in October this year.
Duncan Macniven, Registrar General for Scotland, said:
"The latest projections for Scotland's local areas are interesting. Earlier this year we announced that Scotland's population is projected to rise over the next 15 years before declining slowly. Breaking this data down to individual council areas shows that around half are set to increase and half to decrease in population.
"West Lothian has the largest projected increase of 21 per cent, followed by the Scottish Borders (15 per cent). Most areas near to, and including, Edinburgh City are projected to increase in population over the next 15 years. Aberdeen City and Dundee City show the greatest decrease of 24 per cent and 15 per cent respectively.
"Compared to our previous projections, we are expecting higher populations in most council areas."
The figures show that:
- most council areas near to, and including Edinburgh City are projected to increase in size by 2024
- Aberdeen City, Glasgow City, Dundee City and areas in the west of Scotland and the Islands councils are projected to decline by 2024
- the greatest projected increase in population during the period 2004 to 2024 for council areas is in West Lothian at 21 per cent, followed by Scottish Borders with 15 per cent
- Aberdeen City and Dundee City have the largest projected decreases at 24 per cent and -15 per cent respectively.
- For NHS board areas, Borders (15 per cent) and Lothian (11 per cent) show the greatest projected increases in population between 2004 and 2024. The largest decreases are projected in Western Isles (15 per cent) and Shetland (11 per cent)
- Scotland's population is projected to age between 2004 and 2024 in most administrative areas
- For council areas the number of children under 15 years old is projected to decrease in all areas apart from the Scottish Borders (an increase of 7 per cent), West Lothian (5 per cent) and Edinburgh City (3 per cent). The projected decline in other areas ranges from 43 per cent in Aberdeen City to 0.1 per cent in Fife
- By 2024, the population of working age (taking account of the change in women's state pension age between 2010 and 2020) is projected to increase in 14 council areas and decrease in 18, increasing the most in West Lothian (20 per cent) and decreasing the most in Aberdeen City (28 per cent)
- The population of pensionable age (taking account of the change in women's state pension age between 2010 and 2020) is projected to increase by 2024 in all but two council areas (Glasgow City and Dundee City are projected to fall by 13 per cent and -five per cent respectively). Similar projected changes in age structure can also be seen in NHS board areas