This item was published during the term of a previous administration that ended in April 2007
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Preparing Scotland for a flu pandemic is major priority - CMO
19/10/2005
Scotland is at the forefront of planning to deal with any human flu pandemic that occurs, Chief Medical Officer Dr Harry Burns said today.
Outlining latest advice, Scotland's top doctor said preparing for pandemic flu is a major priority for Scotland, in conjuction with planning from other UK health departments.
Dr Burns said:
"We are not in a flu pandemic situation, and the risk is no higher now than it was earlier this year.
"However, the sensible steps we are setting out today will help us to reduce the impact of any future pandemic on Scotland's population.
"There has been a lot of discussion recently about avian flu in light of the recent discovery in Turkey and Romania and there has been some confusion between this and a possible flu pandemic.
"Avian flu affects birds and although it has affected very small numbers of humans who have been in very close contact with birds in South East Asia, it does not pass easily from human to human. There is only a possibility of a pandemic if a virulent new strain emerges which can pass easily from human to human.
"Pandemic flu is also different from the "seasonal" flu that we see every winter in the UK.
"We've been planning for a long time. Although a flu pandemic vaccine cannot be created in advance of the virus appearing, we are already stockpiling 1.3 million doses of 'antiviral' medicines which will help treat the 1 in 4 of Scots who could catch the pandemic flu.
"Today we have also published an updated version of our contingency plan, advice for healthcare staff and new public information leaflets that GPs can give out.
"Preparing for pandemic flu is a major priority for Scotland. We are making appropriate arrangements, in conjunction with UK Health departments and advice from the World Health Organization (WHO).
"This co-ordination of work is important to ensure the international community is as well prepared as it can be to spot and address the early signs of a pandemic as quickly as possible.
"It is right to be prudent and in fact the WHO has said the UK is at the forefront of international preparedness for a possible flu pandemic."
The contingency plan for pandemic flu was first published in 1997, a revised version was published in March 2005 and this has been updated again today. The plan will continue to be revised as new information becomes available. The contingency plan and the public information leaflet can be viewed on the website: http://www.show.scot.nhs.uk/sehd/pandemicflu/
The history of previous flu pandemics suggests a flu pandemic will cause more serious illness and affect far more people than seasonal flu. Without medical countermeasures, the number of deaths in the UK resulting from pandemic flu could range from 50,000 to an upper estimate of 500,000. That translates to between 5000 and 50,000 potential deaths in Scotland. Estimates of the effects of a flu pandemic are based on historical data from previous pandemics in the 20th Century and analysis by the WHO.
A fully tailored Flu vaccine cannot be available at the start of a pandemic flu outbreak. A specific vaccine can only be developed once a pandemic strain has been identified. This ensures that the vaccine matches the pandemic strain as closely as possible. This may take a minimum of six months because each flu strain is different and the vaccine will need to be developed and tested.
Key measures in the Scottish Executive's Contingency plan include:
- A public information leaflet on pandemic flu.
- Ensuring robust surveillance of possible flu cases in the UK, using the existing procedures of the Health Protection Scotland and Royal College General Practitioners to monitor flu-like cases seen by GPs.
- Informing the public about the likely risks of a pandemic and what they should do in the event of pandemic flu.
- Being prepared to take steps to reduce the risk of spread of the disease, such as advising against certain travel, possibly closing schools and cancelling events where large crowds gather such as football matches and pop concerts.
- Considering how antiviral drugs will be used to treat people who are confirmed or suspected cases of pandemic flu.
- Decisions on priority groups for antivirals.
There have been three flu pandemics in the last century:
- Spanish flu - 1918-19, killed 20-40 million worldwide and 250,000 in the UK. Healthy young adults aged 20-50 years were the group most affected.
- Asian flu - 1957-1958, killed 1 million worldwide and 33,000 in the UK. The very young and very old age groups were most affected.
- Hong Kong flu - 1968-1969, killed 1-4 million worldwide and 30,000 in England and Wales. The very old and those with underlying medical conditions were the groups most affected.
The State Veterinary Service have well developed contingency plans to deal quickly with any outbreaks of avian influenza or other bird disease in Scotland.
The UK government are improving surveillance of avian or 'bird' flu in South East Asia which is seen by experts as the most likely source of a pandemic strain of flu transmitted by people. The UK Government recently gave the World Health Organisation pound500,000 to boost avian flu monitoring in the region and improve the chances of an early warning of a pandemic.