This item was published during the term of a previous administration that ended in April 2007
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Gross Domestic Product for 3rd quarter of 2004
26/01/2005
Gross Domestic Product in Scotland rose by 1.8 per cent
over the year to 2004 Q3 and by 0.9 per cent in the third
quarter of 2004 according to provisional estimates released
today.
The main findings of the latest figures are:
- GDP rose by 1.8 per cent over the year to 2004 Q3
and by 0.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2004
(seasonally adjusted).
- Over the year to 2004 Q3, annual output in the
Scottish service sector grew by 1.8 per cent, compared
with a 0.1 per cent increase in the production sector
and a 8.4 per cent rise in construction.
- In the third quarter of 2004, the service sector
grew by 1.3 per cent, the construction sector by 0.4
per cent and the production sector fell by 0.1 per
cent.
- The service sector was the main driver of growth in
the latest quarter. Over the year, the service and
construction sectors were the main sources of
growth.
UK Figures:
- The UK figures show that GDP rose by 3.2 per cent
over the year to 2004 Q3 and by 0.5 per cent over the
latest quarter.
- In the year to 2004 quarter 3, the UK experienced a
3.8 per cent growth in services, a 0.5 per cent growth
in production and 4.5 per cent growth in
construction.
Industry Analysis:
- Output in the manufacturing sector fell by -1.1% in
the latest quarter. Over the year, the sector showed an
increase of 0.4 per cent.
- Within manufacturing, the main sectors driving the
quarterly decrease were engineering & allied
industries (-2.7% over the quarter), textiles (-3.8%
over the quarter) and chemicals (-1.8% over the
quarter).
- Over the latest quarter, the service sector grew by
1.3 per cent. Within this sector the main industries
driving the quarterly increase were real estate &
business services (1.7% over the quarter), financial
services (3.5% over the quarter), transport, storage
& communication (1.7% over the quarter) and public
admin, education & health (0.8% over the
quarter).
NEXT PUBLISHED (Provisionally): 27th April 2005
Definitions
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the value
of goods and services produced by residents, before
allowing for depreciation or capital consumption. Net
receipts from interest, profits and dividends abroad are
excluded. The estimates produced in this publication
measure GDP at basic prices (also referred to as gross
value added (GVA)).
Methodology
In February 2004, on publication of results for 2003 Q3,
the Scottish GDP estimates moved to annually weighted and
chained estimates of volume measures - referred to as
"annual chainlinking" - as recommended in the System of
National Accounts 1993. This is consistent with the UK
where this approach was introduced on 30 September 2003 in
respect of the 2003 Q2 results. Annual chainlinking is
achieved by producing a weighted average of over 260
separate indices (160 of which are in the production
sector). The indices represent changes in the value added,
at constant prices, in the production of goods and services
in individual industries. These industries are compiled
using the standard industrial classification SIC2003.
The main difference between chainlinking and the
previous "fixed base" methodology is that the weights
applied to each industry (reflecting importance in the
Scottish economy) are updated on an annual basis, instead
of a 5-yearly basis. The major effect of chainlinking has
been to more accurately reflect the changing importance of
sectors. The impact of chainlinking the Scottish GDP series
to 2000 weights was to reduce the negative effect of the
low/declining growth in some sectors, while simultaneously
increasing the importance of those which had been
performing well. Both of these changes had a positive
effect on the overall level of growth estimated by the
Scottish GDP series. In October 2004 the weights were
updated to 2001 in line with the annual chainlinking
methodology. The effects of the new weights on the overall
GDP index were negligible. There was a slightly positive
effect on production and construction balanced by a very
small negative effect on services with the result of almost
no change to total GDP. An article providing more
information about the chainlinking methodology was
published in Scottish Economic Statistics 2004
www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/ses.
Series are derived from indicators based on data from a
wide range of sources. Examples include: deflated turnover,
deflated production, the volume of a good or service sold
or produced and, for some parts of the public sector,
employee numbers.
The quarterly Scottish GDP estimates are published
within 4 months (approximately 17 weeks) of the end of the
quarter to which it relates.
The indices published within this Statistics Publication
Notice are grouped according to the 2003 revised Standard
Industrial Classification.
The four broad groupings of industries are
(a) agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
(b) production which comprises: mining and quarrying
industries; energy and
water supply; and manufacturing, which includes: refined
petroleum products and nuclear fuel; chemical and man-made
fibres; metal and metal products; engineering and allied
industries; food, drink and tobacco industries; textiles,
footwear, leather and clothing; other manufacturing.
(c) construction
(d) services, which includes: retail and wholesale;
hotels and catering;
transport, storage and communication; financial
services; real estate and business services; public
administration, education and health; other services.
Scottish GDP estimates will generally be less reliable
than the estimates for the UK, primarily because the
equivalent UK figures are produced by balancing 3
independent sets of estimates (Output (GVA), Income &
Expenditure-based approaches). Furthermore, the survey data
tend to be based on smaller numbers of units, making
figures for Scotland more likely to be subject to small
random fluctuations.
Cash Estimates of GVA
Estimates of the cash value of gross value added (GVA)
at current prices for Scotland (and other regions of the
UK) are produced by the Office for National Statistics.
Estimates for 2003 were published on 22nd December 2004.
The ONS current price value estimates are methodologically
different from the Scottish Executive volume (constant
price) index and are based on different data sources.
Revisions
The figures in this Statistics Publication Notice
incorporate revisions to previously published estimates.
These are mainly due to revisions to input data and
adjustments to seasonal factors. Tables 8 - 13 identify the
extent of revisions since the last publication in October
2004. Note that revisions are shown to one decimal place
for total GVA and GVA excluding oil & gas and to zero
decimal places for all other sectors.
The series most affected by revisions this quarter
are:
- Metals & metal products - due to revised data
and adjustments to seasonal factors;
- Electrical & Instrument Engineering - due to
revised data;
- Textiles - due to revised data;
- Financial Services - due to revised data;
- Hotels & catering - due to revised data and
adjustments to seasonal factors.
National Statistics
National Statistics are produced to high professional
standards set out in the National Statistics Code of
Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to
ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced
free from any political interference.