This item was published during the term of a previous administration that ended in April 2007
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Demographic trends 2003
30/07/2004
The Registrar General for Scotland today released his
Annual Review of Demographic Trends.
As in past years, the report highlights trends in
births, deaths and marriages. This year, a chapter has been
dedicated to migration - within Scotland as well as to and
from Scotland - drawing on information from the 2001 Census
and from surveys of where students go after
graduation.
Registrar General for Scotland Duncan Macniven said:
"My report shows that Scotland's population rose
slightly last year - by 2,600 people. There were 712 more
births than in 2002. Around 9,000 more people moved to
Scotland - from the rest of the UK, and the wider world -
than moved away. That is good news for those who are
alarmed at the prospect of demographic decline.
"However, population trends are hard to predict. Despite
the small increase to Scotland's population last year, we
face a challenge of a declining and ageing population in
the future.
"Fertility rates remain lower than the rest of the UK -
and are declining faster. Our death rate, though better
than a decade ago, rose slightly last year and remains
stubbornly higher than the rest of the UK. Within the
enlarged EU, only Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania and Latvia
fare worse.
"My report also shows interesting trends in marriage.
There were more weddings in Scotland last year than in any
year since 1994. The increase is mainly 'tourist' weddings,
where neither bride nor groom is a Scottish resident.
"However, in 2003, the number of Scottish couples rose
by more than 800. Perhaps that was the effect of a change
in the law in 2002, which allowed civil marriages outwith
registration offices - which now account for over 10 per
cent of all weddings.
"This year's report looks in detail at migration. In the
year before the last Census, 1.5 per cent of the Scottish
population - 77,000 people - had migrated to Scotland.
"Migration to and from the rest of the UK was more or
less in balance - with Scots tending to migrate to London
and the South West, and people from Yorkshire, the Humber
and the West Midlands coming here. Overseas migration flows
are harder to measure - but 29,000 residents at Census time
had lived abroad a year before.
"Students are an interesting group of migrants. More
people come to Scotland for their higher education than
leave to study elsewhere. About 30 per cent of students
from the rest of the UK who studied in Scotland, stayed
here to work - and about 20 per cent of students from the
rest of the EU."
The report also highlights the following:
Population
- Scotland's population rose in the
year to 30 June 2003 by 2,600 to 5,057,400
- The distribution of population
within Scotland continues to change, with larger urban
areas (apart from Edinburgh) declining and growth in
rural areas (apart from the islands areas) and in the
areas surrounding cities
- Scotland's population is
projected to fall below five million in 2009, reaching
4.84 million in 2027. By the latter year, the
proportion of children under 16 is projected to have
fallen by 19 per cent and that of people aged 75 and
over to have increased by 61 per cent
Fertility
- There were 52,432 births recorded
in 2003, 712 more than in 2002 but half the number
recorded in the early 1960s. It is too soon to say
whether the small rise represents a turning point in
the decline experienced prior to 2002
- The total fertility rate was
about three-fifths the level it was in 1971 and has
been declining faster than in other parts of the
UK
Mortality
- In 2003, the two most common
causes of death were cancer (26 per cent of deaths) and
ischaemic heart disease (20 per cent)
- There were 560 deaths classified
as suicide (intentional self-harm) in 2003, 76 fewer
than in 2002
- Life expectancy at birth for
males and females was 73.5 and 78.8 respectively, up
from 64.4 and 68.7 for those born half a century
earlier
Migration
- The pattern of migration varies
considerably by age group with, for example, a net
inflow at age 19 from the rest of the UK and a net
outflow at age 23. Migration is highest among young
adults
- Migration with the rest of the UK
was more or less in balance. There were net gains from
parts of England such as Yorkshire, the Humber and West
Midlands but net losses to London and the South
West
- There was a net loss to the rest
of the UK in age groups 16 to 24 and 25 to 34 and net
gains in all other age groups
- Comparing the average ages of
in-migrants and out-migrants, younger people are
attracted to cities and university areas, and older
people to rural areas
Marriages
- There were 30,757 marriages in
2003 - the highest figure since 1994 but much fewer
than the figures of around 40,000 seen in the
1960s
- 2003 was the first full year in
which civil marriages could be conducted in 'approved
places' outside civil registration offices. In all,
3,465 civil ceremonies (11 per cent of all marriages
and 25 per cent of civil marriages) were conducted in
approved places
The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic
Trends (ISBN 1-874451-72-9, #6) is available from the
General Register Office for Scotland and the GROS website
www.gro-scotland.gov.uk.
Further detailed statistical tables are available on the
GROS website or by contacting GROS Customer Services.
For further information on the availability of more
detailed data and tables, please contact:
Customer Services
General Register Office for Scotland
Ladywell House
Ladywell Road
Edinburgh, EH12 7TF
Telephone: 0131 314 4243
Facsimile: 0131 314 4696
email:
customer@gro-scotland.gov.uk